Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Analysis and Predictions for Week 11

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Oct 19, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Colorado Buffalos quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) with wide receiver Travis Hunter (12) against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Another week, another monster slate of college football.

As we draw closer to the end of the season, people are entrenched in their respective takes about teams and what they are seeing on the field. Is Carson Beck any good anymore? Will Alabama figure it out? Can Colorado actually deliver a College Football Playoff contender and Heisman Trophy winner?

With so many games and so many teams, I'm here to help either confirm or debunk your thoughts on some of the biggest games and teams in college football.

Here's the keys to every Top 25 matchup with betting notes, actionable information, and bets to go wtih it.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Betting Notes and Predictions for Week 11

Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Notes

Ohio State scored its marquee win last week against Penn State, easing some concerns as the team gears up for a National Championship run.
While it wasn’t smooth sailing for the Buckeyes, Will Howard’s early pick-six dug the team a 10—hole. The Buckeyes showed why the team wrote a blank check to fill out the roster this season on both sides of the ball. OSU looked down in the red zone throughout the game, but namely in the fourth quarter before icing the game away with several first downs.
The team is laying north of five touchdowns against Purdue this weekend and I expect Ohio State to keep this routine and look to stay healthy ahead of its next test, which is against Indiana in two weeks. I have very little betting interest in this one.

Miami (Florida) vs. Georgia Tech Betting Notes

Injury news is paramount for this one with Georgia Tech mum on the status of quarterback Haynes King, who has missed the last two games (prior to a BYE week) with an injury.
The drop-off from King to backup Zach Pyron and third-stringer Aaron Philo is quite large. The team mustered 19 combined points against Notre Dame and Virginia Tech in the two games without King.
Of course, Heisman Trophy favorite Cam Ward and the Hurricanes are going to put scoreboard pressure on the opponent, so GT needs its leading man back who had this offense among the top half in the ACC in several key metrics like EPA/Play.
Miami continues to flirt with disaster, but the high-octane offense is inevitable.
Last week, Miami found itself down two scores in the second half for a third time this season before storming back and not just beating Duke, but covering a three touchdown point spread.
The Hurricanes' offense has talent all over with a blend of elite pass catchers and feared rushers, including Mark Fletcher Jr. and Damien Martinez.
Miami has scored 36 or more points in every game this season, you can’t stop this team, merely hope to contain them.
Well, if Georgia Tech has its full complement of offensive players, I do see a path for the Yellow Jackets to compete in this one.
While the Miami offense is dynamic, the defense continues to show glaring issues.
The defense is outside the top 100 in explosive rush and pass rate (dead last in this one), and is now down one of its premiere cornerbacks, Jadais Richard.
With King, the GT offense has the skill position players to go score for score with the Hurricanes, namely Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton Jr.
Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key has been a cash cow as an underdog. Key is 12-6 against the spread as an underdog in the two-plus years at Georgia Tech with nine outright upsets, including last season against Miami.

Florida vs. Texas Betting Notes

Florida had been playing good ball, possibly giving Billy Napier another season in Gainesville, but a mid-game injury to freshman D.J. Lagway makes this game nothing more than a glorified scrimmage.
Texas continues to be lightly challenged, and I will have my eye on Quinn Ewers and if he shows any signs of progression on his downfield throws, and the team won’t be again.
Ewers is passing the ball less than 10 yards down the field on more than two-thirds of his passes. When he goes longer? He is completing only 45% of them.
However, this is a later issue for the Longhorns, as Florida will be starting third stringer Aidan Warner, who won’t be able to have the Gators offense on schedule at all. In relief for Lagway last week, Warner completed seven of 22 passes for 66 yards while taking two sacks and throwing an interception.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss Betting Notes

Beck’s suspect play continues to loom large for the Bulldogs, the second choice to win the National Championship in the betting market. Beck has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws this season, per Pro Football Focus, and is fresh off three interceptions against Florida. Can the Georgia quarterback play a clean game against an elite opponent? We haven’t seen a truly stellar effort from Beck since Week 1 against Clemson.
Beck will be facing a truly elite Ole miss defense. This group has far exceeded expectations, and are the reason why the team is where it is (more on the offense in a bit).
The Rebels pass rush is graded fifth in the country in pass rush grade and Beck has been terrible under pressure all season. He has completed only 36% of throws when under pressure this season.
With a turnover problem, is Kirby Smart and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo going to give Beck the opportunity to throw a ton? The Rebels play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the country, and the Bulldogs have struggled against that scheme all season.
This game may feature a ton of ineffective run plays from the Bulldogs as the team leans on its defense.
The Rebels are known for its offense with the nation’s leading pass Jaxson Dart and offensive maestro Lane Kiffin on the sidelines, but this team has been in a funk in SEC play.
Sure, the team hung 63 on Arkansas without No. 1 wide receiver Tre Harris (who is questionable for this one), but let’s look at the bigger picture, which is that the team has failed to score more than 27 in its four prior SEC games.
The Bulldogs shut down Kiffin, Dart and the Rebels last season in Athens, 52-17, and while its a different team, I do believe this Bulldogs offense has shown a ceiling that can shut down the opposing offense (i.e. Texas).
While the Alabama game may loom large, and Ole Miss has a reputation for an elite offense, I believe the Crimson Tide are a particularly poor matchup with its ability to deploy Jalen Milroe as a rusher. While Jaxson Dart is mobile, he is nowhere near capable of what Milroe is.
Not to mention, Ole Miss is going to be without its leading rusher Henry Parrish Jr, which means the team is going to likely be playing from behind the sticks a ton as it struggles to hit deep passes against a Georgia defense that can win without sending extra rushers against an Ole Miss offensive line that is 73rd in pass block grading.
I sided with the under 55 (key number) in this one. Ole Miss has had red zone issues in SEC play and is only converting 55% of its fourth down attempts. I’m curious how Kiffin will call this game, but I’m very concerned about the team’s ability to find answers on offense. As for Georgia, I believe the team wants to lean on its defense and not continue to shake Beck’s confidence. This will be the best defense that Georgia has faced and Beck is not trustworthy enough to sling it around the yard all afternoon.

Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Notes

Oddsmakers have been unable to grasp the dominance of Indiana all season, undefeated against the spread (depending on the number you bet), while Michigan has failed to live up to its rating, just 2-7 against the number.
The Wolverines defense will certainly be the best unit that Indiana has faced to date, but the offense continues to lack the ability to hold up week-over-week. Michigan has scored more than 24 points just once in Big Ten play this season and is cycling back to the third quarterback of the season in Davis Warren.
Michigan will hope that the likes of cornerback Will Johnson can return to the field and can limit this Indiana offense that got back Kurtis Rourke from a thumb injury last week.
The Hoosiers trailed for the first time all season last week, 10-0, before rattling off 47 unanswered in the win.
The key in this one will be Indiana’s ability to block a disruptive Michigan front that is No. 1 in the country in pass rush grading. This will be the best defense the Hoosiers have seen, and while the team has a defensive line of its own (third in pass rush grading), Michigan has the SOS advantage.
Warren is the Wolverines’ best answer under center, but he must avoid a dreaded mistake in order to give the Hoosiers good field position. To his credit, the quarterback has been able to complete 65% of his passes, but the passing game lacks much explosiveness, 115th in that metric.

Iowa State vs. Kansas Betting Notes

Iowa State was knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten last week in a stunning lost at Texas Tech.
The Cyclones' shaky rush defense has been a red flag all season, and it finally caught up with them in Week 10. The Cyclones are 110th in yards per carry and are bottom half of the country in tackles for loss.
The offense remains explosive with Rocco Becht playing at an incredibly high level, but the team will face another emerging offense in Kansas, which has been far better than its record indicates.
At 2-6, the Jayhawks are 44th in net EPA/Play on the season, losing one game by more than one touchdown this season.
The Kansas offense is particularly dynamic on the ground with Devin Neal the engine behind an offense that is seventh in EPA/Rush. Can KU be a running dog in this one?

Army vs. North Texas Betting Notes

For starters, it’s up in the air if Army’s star quarterback Bryson Daily will go in this one, adding a ton of uncertainty to the side-of-the-road favorite.
With Daily a surprise scratch last week, Army struggled to find much traction on offense with backup Dewayne Coleman under center.
Army hasn’t faced an offense inside the top 80 in EPA/Play this season, which means the team is in for a rude awakening against North Texas on Saturday, which is 17th in that metric.
North Texas’ defense is a far cry from even average, 114th in EPA/Play, but the offense is elite and this will be unfamiliar territory for Army with possibly its backup under center.
There’s always a ton of volatility in North Texas in this one, a live underdog at home with an extra week of prep for the triple option.

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech Betting Notes

Clemson laid an egg at home against Louisville, arguably its toughest remaining opponent before the ACC Championship Game, losing 33-21.
It was a dismal outing from the Tigers passing game against a poor Louisville secondary, averaging less than four yards per dropback as Cade Klubnik couldn’t find any downfield threats.
The Tigers College Football Playoff hopes are trending towards zero, but will it respond on the road against Virginia Tech?
The Hokies surprisingly ruled out quarterback Kyron Drones and stud running back Brayshul Tuten just before kickoff against Syracuse last week, but backup Collin Schlee had the Hokies humming on offense.
The two starters are questionable for this one, but it’s fair to question the drop-off from Drones to Schlee after nearly pulling out the win before losing in overtime.
There’s a ton of uncertainty in this game as the mid-season push from Clemson appears to be a mirage due to poor defenses. Virginia Tech’s defense grades out as an above--average one in the ACC, 34th in EPA/Play, so I’m not sure what kind of uptick in play we see from the Tigers on the road.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech Betting Notes

Colorado is in an incredibly advantageous situation to build up the Heisman Trophy campaign for both Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders against a patchwork Texas Tech defense.
Yes, Texas Tech limited Iowa State to 22 points on the road, but the team allowed nearly more than 100 total yards and allowed 326 yards through the air.
On the season, PFF grades Texas Tech’s defense outside the top 125 in both coverage and tackling.
The team checks in 107th in EPA/Play with only 11 sacks on the season (122th nationally). This season, Texas Tech has allowed 34, 35, 22, 41, 22, 21, 37 and 51 points. Overall the group checks in 120th in points per game allowed.
Not to mention, Texas Tech has injuries building up on the defensive side of the ball in addition to being an already poor unit.
In comes Colorado off of a BYE, who has the passing game that can compete with any defense in the country with the current form of Sanders and a healthy Hunter.
Texas Tech’s defense has feasted on turnovers all season, tied for 17th in the country with 16, but Sanders simply doesn’t put the ball in harm's way, making 20 big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.
While I do believe Texas Tech can keep up offensively and this game can turn into a shootout quickly, my favorite bet in this one is the Colorado team total over 33.5, something the Buffs have cleared in all but one game in Big 12 play (28 vs. Colorado).

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Betting Notes

Looking back at last week, you’ll see two glaring things.
First, Vanderbilt’s offensive line couldn’t handle Auburn whatsoever, and Diego Pavia was compromised. Of course, the Commodores dream season continued and the team gutted out a road upset, but the team had a success rate of 25% and averaged less than four yards per play, in the fifth percentile amongst teams when compared to last season, per GameonPaper.
The Gamecocks defensive line is elite, fourth in the country in sacks and 13th in EPA/Play. If the team is able to get to Pavia and put the Commodores behind the sticks, it may be tough sledding for this Vandy offense that is reliant on getting into favorable down and distances as the unit isn’t overly explosive.
For South Carolina’s offense, it was the best game of LaNorris Sellers’ young career, who passed for 244 yards and added 106 on the ground. However, this offense is volatile, and I’m not sure I buy that as the ceiling for this team moving forward.
Over the balance of the season, the South Carolina offense has been quite poor.
The unit is 96th in EPA/Play and has allowed the most sacks in the country, but most importantly, can’t succeed on early downs. South Carolina is 128th in the country in terms of average third down distance, which is going to make life difficult against a Vanderbilt defense that has been shaky on third down this season, 79th in third down conversion percentage allowed.
I believe this game can be dictated by field position as both offenses struggle to find their footing throughout. I like the under above 45.

Maryland vs. Oregon Betting Notes

The big news for this one will be the developments in the Oregon pass-catching group.
Tez Johnson will be out for a few weeks with a shoulder injury, but there will be capable pass catchers behind him. I expect Traeshon Holden to step in nicely for Johnson and the team will also get back dynamic weapon Gary Bryant, who hasn’t played this season.
This should be a nice landing spot for the Ducks to integrate new weapons into Johnson’s role for the foreseeable future. Maryland is 105th in EPA/Pass this season.

Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Betting Notes

Nico Iamaleava had arguably his best game of the season in Week 10 against Kentucky, completing 28-of-38 passes for 292 yards, and his wide receivers did him no favors either with a few drops.
We’ll see if the Vols offense is onto something with some big matchups on the horizon, but that won’t be this week.
Mississippi State poses another opportunity for Iamaleava to build up some late-season momentum and for this Tennessee offense to round into form ahead of the postseason.
The Bulldogs defense is 123rd in EPA/Play and will get torched by the veer-and-shoot offense that Tennessee deploys.
However, the Vols continue to be overvalued in the market, failing to cover the three times it has been favored by double digits in SEC play. If the team is onto something, will it show it the week before it goes to Athens to face Georgia?

Florida State vs. Notre Dame Betting Notes

Florida State’s season continues, but this team is far from competitive.
The offense is tough to watch, bottom 10 in most offensive categories you care to look at, and the defense doesn’t have the ability to keep up by being on the field so often.
Notre Dame, ranked 10th in the first College Football Playoff reveal, will love to rack up some style points on a down opponent.
The Irish are a massive favorite, and Florida State is seemingly unbettable.
Crazy that this game is on NBC and not flexed out in the primetime window, thankfully there are some other epic games on at the same time.

Alabama vs. LSU Betting Notes

This game has the potential to be an instant classic with big-play threats all over the field.
With a week to prepare, I trust Kalen DeBoer to unlock Jalen Milroe in a similar way that we saw him torch the Georgia defense for much of that matchup.
While much has been made about the progress of the LSU defense, we saw the group struggle to contain dual-threat quarterback Marcell Reed, and Milroe is a far more advanced version of that.
The LSU defense is still below average in terms of EPA/Play, 78th in the country, and is 123rd in explosive rush rate. Without the ability to put a true quarterback spy on Milroe, I expect DeBoer to unleash him in the run game that will later open up deep passes for the likes of Ryan Williams.
To me, the LSU defense “improving” was due to a run of good scheduling more than the team taking a tangible leap. The team is a fine defense, but not one that can compete against the top offenses in the country, which Alabama has the ability to be on the right night.
Meanwhile, the Alabama defense continues to have issues in the secondary. The group is 116th in explosive pass defense, which is impactful against an elite LSU passing game that throws the ball at a top-5 rate in the country.
The Tigers don’t trust the run game enough to lean on it, so this has become a pass-only offense. However, Alabama’s defense has struggled to slow down the opposition through the air. The team is 54th in sacks, so I believe that LSU can hold up fine in pass protection at home despite being down offensive lineman Garret Dellinger for this one.
Last season, Milroe gave a banged-up and much worse version of LSU fits, hanging 45 on the Tigers. I do think the defense is better this time around, but not enough to contain Milroe, who I’ll be backing to go over his rushing yard total when that becomes available.
Further, look for the likes of Aaron Anderson and Kyren Lacy to have big nights through the air as Alabama’s secondary has struggled to stop all capable passing games this season.
I think both offenses have the leg up in this one, and we are in for plenty of points.

Washington vs. Penn State Betting Notes

Washington is a good team, but this team is in a bad matchup on Saturday night in Penn State’s annual ‘White Out’ game.
The Huskies' defense is incredibly vulnerable against the run, which is Penn State’s preferred method of attack on offense. The Nittany Lions rank 10th in yards per play with its two-headed rushing attack of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton opening up a passing game that is top 10 in the country in EPA/Pass.
Washington’s defensive line has been a weak point all season, 92nd in line yards and 93rd in EPA/Rush.
I’m eyeing Allen props as the Nittany Lions should be able to play from ahead while I don’t believe Washington has the firepower to keep up with the physicality that Penn State has to offer.
I’m interested in laying it with the home favorite.

Nevada vs. Boise State Betting Notes

It seems like the wheels are coming off for Nevada, with some injuries along the roster and losses in four of the last five, but if you dig deeper, the team still is showing signs of improvement under first-year head coach Jeff Choate.
The team nearly out-gained both Hawai’i (-7) and Colorado State (+117) in double-digit losses over the last two weeks and got back Brendon Lewis from injury last week against Colorado State.
The team plays at a prodding pace, outside the top 100 in terms of seconds per play, and can possibly keep a lid on the Boise State offense, 55th in EPA/Pass.
The Wolf Pack are quite vulnerable against the run, 126th in EPA/Rush, so this can be a big outing for Ashton Jeanty on Saturday night, but the team can be a running dog in this one catching three scores.
Boise State is off a 56-point performance against San Diego State, who plays fast and got ran off the field, but Nevada has been incredibly dangerous as a big, slow-paced, underdog this season, nearly knocking off SMU and San Jose State as underdogs this season.

Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Betting Notes

How does Pitt respond from its first loss of the season?
The Panthers got blitzed from the opening kickoff against a surging SMU team, and now return home to face Virginia.
I’m not super confident in this one as I’m not sure about the direction of this Pitt offense, which has been overrated due to a fortunate schedule but has failed to put up competitive showings against formidable defenses.
However, Virginia is not that, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA/Play.
However, the Woos have been quite stingy as an underdog this season, cashing both times with the mercurial Anthony Colandrea under center.
Virginia is likely due to some positive regression while Pitt is due to some drawbacks. The Cavaliers are second to last in red zone touchdown percentage this season while Pitt’s defense is in the top 50 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed and turnovers gained.
There’s volatility in this type of game that I won’t talk anyone out of a shot on Virginia moneyline, but I haven’t gotten there just yet.

BYU vs. Utah Betting Notes

As has become custom in the Big 12 this season, the difference between the top and bottom of the league is marginal, and we have another opportunity to bet on that idea on Saturday night.
While the Utah offense has fallen off a cliff without Cam Rising on the field, the team still has a more than capable running back in Micah Bernard and an elite defense.
The BYU defense remains vulnerable against the run, 96th in EPA/Rush and 103rd in explosive rush defense while ranking outside the top 100 in tackles for loss. If Utah is able to lean on a well-rested Bernard and put the likes of Brandon Rose (or Isaac Wilson) in favorable down and distances, the Utah offense may be set up for success.
In a matchup with a low total, look for Utah’s defense to set the tone against BYU.
The unit is 10th in EPA/Play and No. 1 in the nation in success rate.
It’s worth noting that BYU has played two defenses inside the top 70 in EPA/Play this season, home against Kansas State and at SMU. While the Cougars won both of those games, the offense averaged 5.15 yards per play across the two, which would be outside the top 100 nationally.
The Big 12 is where favorites go to die, and I see BYU being the latest favorite to go down in a rivalry game at the fortress known as Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Utah State vs. Washington State Betting Notes

Out of sight, out of mind, Washington State is 7-1 this season.
I doubt Utah State can hold up defensively against the electric John Mateer, who is a terror to deal with as both a passer and a rusher.
Wazzu can make its mark on the ground in this one as Utah State’s rush defense is the worst in the country, allowing nearly six yards per carry and ranking 130th in defensive line yards.