Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Picks and Player Prop Bets for Week 8

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck (15) rolls out to throw against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the third quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-Imagn Images / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

Another week, and another list of marquee college football games.

Get your college football weekend started here with every angle covered for the biggest games of the card below with betting notes, player prop angles, and best bets for every Top 25 matchup on deck, including the highly anticipated Georgia vs. Texas game.

It's Reed 'Em and Weep for Week 8.

College Football Betting Notes for Week 8

Oregon vs. Purdue Betting Notes

Oregon had its all-in effort last week, but this is certainly a tricky spot for the Ducks heading across the country to face Purdue on a short week.
While a loss is very unlikely, will the Ducks take care of business early against a Purdue team that showed some life against Illinois, rallying from down three scores with backup Ryan Browne under center?
For Oregon, will the team be interested in running it up? Dillon Gabriel is the second choice for the Heisman Trophy now and can use all the stat padding he can get with a crowded field at the moment.
Purdue is a defense ripe for the taking, 126th in yards per play and outside the top 120 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush.
However, the let-down effect is real for some of these teams and on a short week this can be a slow start for Oregon.
I don’t have much of a betting opinion on this one as getting a gauge early in the game can potentially drive a second-half wager.

Oklahoma State vs. BYU Betting Notes

While quarterback questions surround the struggling Cowboys out of its BYE week, I find myself itching to back Mike Gundy’s squad.
The market has been against BYU the last two weeks, the team closed a three-point underdog at Baylor and inside of a field goal home against Arizona. While wins and covers for the Cougs, the team was -11 in terms of total yards.
Looking back even further, BYU was out-gained 367-241 against Kansas State but benefitted from a +3 turnover margin and a punt return touchdown to win 38-9 at home.
Can Oklahoma State play a clean game and hand BYU its first non-cover of the season? The Cougars offense is right at the national average in terms of EPA/Play and yards per play, so it’s not like the team is running it up via its offense.
Can the Pokes get Ollie Gordon going out of the BYE? The team is 116th in EPA/Rush this season and the reigning Doak Walker Award winner is averaging less than four yards per carry. The BYU rush defense is national average, 61st in EPA/Play, can this be the game for Gordon?
It looks gross, but yes, I’m backing Oklahoma State this weekend.

Miami vs. Louisville Betting Notes

Jeff Brohm and Louisville get another opportunity to spoil a team’s season, but there are some serious concerns ahead of this one.
While I’m not counting out the Cards with its high-octane passing attack, the team is going to struggle to stay in front of Miami’s defensive line. The Cards are 71st in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking grade while Miami checks in top 10 in pass rush grading.
However, the ‘Canes have been susceptible to big plays, 72nd in explosive pass rate and 132nd in explosive rush. This is a dangerous Louisville group that is 15th in explosive pass rate and is top 25 in yards per carry.
Transfer quarterback Tyler Shough has been aggressive in pushing the ball down the field, about 35% of his passes are more than 10 yards down the field, but is only completing 46% of his passes. However, the ability to stretch the field can open up space underneath.
Meanwhile, Louisville’s defense is 92nd in coverage grade, a big concern against Cam Ward and this Miami offense. However, Ward has been loose with the ball at times and this is the most aggressive defensive line he has faced to date, 16th in tackles for loss and 20th in pass rush grade.
This game should have explosive plays on both sides, but to me, it's which quarterback can play a clean game that will decide this one, with a noted edge to Miami's defensive line having the ability to overwhelm the Cardinals.

Virginia vs. Clemson Betting Notes

Clemson is running it up on teams.
The Tigers bludgeoned Wake Forest for 60 minutes last week, and the team didn’t take its foot off the gas pedal. Quarterback Cade Klubnik passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns while completing 75% of his passes despite the 49-14 scoreline.
I think the Tigers can continue to push the pace on a Virginia team that is outside the top 90 in EPA/Pass this season and lacks the pass rushers (outside the top 100 in pass rush grading) to get to Klubnik.
Antonio Williams continues to emerge as a reliable target week-to-week for Klubnik, garnering at least six targets in four of six games this season. In the last two weeks, he has nine catches for 157 yards, and he continues to be priced in the high 40s in terms of receiving yards.

Nebraska vs. Indiana Betting Notes

I’m curious how the Hoosiers handle facing a formidable opponent for the first time this season. The Hoosiers have gotten whatever they wanted so far this season, but the Cornhuskers defense may be up to the test to provide some resistance.
Nebraska ranks 10th in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, and ranks second in points per drive allowed so far this season, allowing less than one point per drive so far this season.
While the Hoosiers will be a tough test, I do believe this Nebraska defense can pressure Rourke unlike the IU signal caller has faced so far this season. He has only been pressured on about 20% of his dropbacks, but on those throws, he has completed only 52% of his passes.
If Nebraska gets pressure, this can become a more defensive-minded affair as the Hoosiers lean on its defense as the Cornhuskers offense has lacked the big-play element.
Nebraska has struggled to run for much of this season, averaging less than four yards per carry, and is 90th in explosive pass rate.
I think we see a conservative game plan from both teams and each team to win on the defensive line and keep the opposing offense behind the sticks.
Under is one that I haven’t bet yet, but I’m eyeing given that I think each offense can be up against it.

Auburn vs. Missouri Betting Notes

Blind resume time!
First, each team’s offense:
Team A: 60th in yards per play, 48th in EPA/Play, 36th in success rate, 50th in yards per carry, 124th in explosive pass rate
Team B: 9th in yards per play, 38th in EPA/Play, 24th in success rate, 28th in yards per carry and 8th in explosive pass rate
And now defense:
Team A: 27th in yards per play, 43rd in EPA/Play, 14th in success rate, 40th in yards per play and 108th in explosive pass rate
Team B: 33rd in yards per play, 42nd in EPA/Play, 43rd in success rate, 33rd in yards per carry 83rd in explosive pass rate
Team A is the home favorite Missouri Tigers, who haven’t played a team inside the top 40 in net yards per play.
Team B is the road underdog Auburn Tigers, who have played two teams inside the top 20 in net yards per play
The gap between these two teams comes down to strength of schedule and the fact that Auburn can’t avoid catastrophic turnovers, 130th in turnovers lost this season.
However, I believe that the Tigers have a serious edge in terms of overall talent and I trust this team to keep it close on the road.

East Carolina vs. Army Betting Notes

I’m going to pump the breaks on Army and think this team can be on upset alert on Saturday
ECU has been plagued by turnovers all season long, but this will surely be the best offense the Black Knights have faced to date after an incredibly easy start to the season.
The Pirates will have a BYE week to prepare for Army, and this is a sturdy rush defense fifth in defensive line yards and 16th in EPA/Rush.
Army’s been explosive and running it up on teams, but I wonder what will happen when the first team that has the capability to stop them shows up.
I lean towards ECU and think there can surely be an upset in West Point on Saturday.

Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Notes

A loser leaves town type of matchup, it feels like.
Let’s start with the home underdogs, who have not produced on offense like many (me included) had hoped this season.
Get this, Nico Iamaleava is completing 87% of his passes that are less than 10 yards down the field, but is converting only 30% of throws more than 10 yards down the field, per PFF.
The Tennessee signal-caller is really struggling to find his deep ball, but that’s the key to unlocking Alabama’s defense, which is incredibly shaky in the back seven. The Crimson Tide defense is 110th in explosive pass defense and has already struggled with a veer-and-shoot offense this season.
South Florida head coach Alex Golesh runs a similar scheme to Tennessee, coming from Knoxville as offensive coordinator for the Vols.
It can go both ways, Alabama has seen the offense recently and can gameplan to beat it, or Tennessee can continue to expose the faults in the Alabama defense.
Meanwhile, on the other side, can Tennessee’s defensive line maintain its lofty standard against the most diverse offense its seen?
The Crimson Tide offensive line continues to be suspect, 67th in run blocking and will be facing an elite defensive line in Tennessee that is seventh in rush defense.
However, the secondary continues to be untested, and Milroe remains an incredibly adept deep ball passer with a dazzling freshman wide receiver in Ryan Williams.
Milroe is completing nearly 62% of his passes that are further than 10 yards downfield.
There are plenty of questions about who is truly the better team I find myself trusting the home underdog that has the havoc-driven defensive line to give Milroe fits.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech Betting Notes

Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King is day-to-day with a shoulder injury, but looking at the betting market, I’d say he is more doubtful than probable.
If King can’t go, the expectation is that Zach Pyron will play, a rush-first quarterback.
The Yellow Jackets are likely going to be up against it facing an elite Notre Dame defense. I expect Brent Key to try and shorten the game similar to how it did against Florida State.
Notre Dame has been running it up on teams of late, but the team has been able to rip off big runs often, ranking second in explosive rush rate this season.
However, the strength of the GT defense is against the run, ranking 22nd in EPA/Rush, third in line yards, and 17th in explosive rush defense.
My preference is a fast-moving game that is full of run plays and an under bet at 49 or above.

Michigan vs. Illinois Betting Notes

The Wolverines' defense is incredibly aggressive and has the havoc drivers on the defensive line to put Luke Altmyer under pressure.
This season, Altmyer is completing less than 55% of his passes with seven turnover-worthy plays under pressure this season.
Compare that to when Altmyer is not under pressure – he is completing 72% of his passes with a 13-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio – it's fair to be skeptical about the team’s ability to move the ball on the UM front.
The Illinois defensive line has struggled all season, 105th in defensive line yards and 96th in yards per carry allowed. If the Wolverines are able to hand it to Mullings – and Donovan Edwards – and find success on the ground, the team is going to be able to stay ahead of the chains and find enough scores to outpace the home underdog.
If Kalel Mullings is under 100 yards on his rushing yard prop, I’ll be betting his over.
I bet Michigan at cheaper numbers, but believe the team should take care of Illinois

Charlotte vs. Navy Betting Notes

Charlotte comes out of a BYE week to hit the road to face upstart Navy, who should exploit the 49ers' shaky rush defense.
Charlotte is 130th in explosive rush defense, allowing more than five yards per carry.
Maybe the 49ers found something in its last game, blowing out East Carolina 55-24, but the team was aided by two interceptions to help blow this game open.
Charlotte ranks 107th in penalty yards per game while Navy is 21st, making it uneasy to trust the 49ers when the game likely goes off the rails.

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Betting Notes

Mississippi State’s offense has been far better than expected with freshman quarterback Michale Van Buren Jr. under center.
The Bulldogs covered against both Georgia and Texas as 30-plus point underdogs and now are getting some credit ahead of its matchup against Texas A&M.
However, this Aggies offense may continue an upward trajectory this season now that Conner Weigman is healthy.
After scoring 40-plus on Missouri at home, can the team come out of its BYE week and take care of a Miss. State defense that is 119th in EPA/Play and doesn’t get pressure on the quarterback?
I believe so, but it may be a slower-paced affair with longer drives as Mississippi State is top 30 in both explosive rush and pass defense.

LSU vs. Arkansas Betting Notes

LSU is back in the limelight after upsetting Ole Miss in thrilling fashion, but I’m not as sold on this team.
In the win, the team needed Garrett Nussmeier to throw the ball 51 times as the team couldn’t run the ball at all. While the defense looks to be improved, is it really? The team faced Ole Miss on the heels of seven straight games and injuries up and down the roster.
Now, is Arkansas the one to take advantage of this? I’m not sure.
Quarterback Taylen Green is still questionable for this one, but the Razorbacks have a viable rush game that can play keep away from LSU with elite running back Ja’Quinden Jackson.
The Hogs rank 29th in EPA/Rush and have been adept at staying on schedule, ranking 27th in success rate.
Lost in LSU’s thrilling win was the shaky metrics. Tigers posted an average EPA/Play (49th percentile) and success rate (16th percentile) at home against Ole Miss compared to games last season. Now, the team gets a fresh Arkansas defense on its home field that has proven it can hold up in SEC play.
If the team becomes a glorified air-raid team, the unit is passing at the ninth-highest rate in the country and is 84th in EPA/Rush, I’m not sure how good this team is by overcompensating for a bad part of its offense.

Georgia vs. Texas Betting Notes

The big one in Texas has drawn a ton of attention. Here’s my take
Up until a few weeks ago when Georgia lost at Alabama, the Bulldogs were viewed as the favorite in this game.
After falling behind Alabama 28-0 due to both poor play and unlucky bounces, only to rally to lead the game with a few minutes left, the Bulldogs are now viewed as much worse.
Meanwhile, Texas played two games without its starting quarterback and hasn’t played a team inside Top 80 in net yards per play this season.
The Longhorns are an elite team, a National Championship contender, but this number is an incredible overreaction to an easy schedule and Georgia’s shaky 30 minutes against Alabama.
Texas hasn’t had to prove that it can replace two NFL defensive linemen just yet and also prove that its transfer portal adds in the secondary are actually viable.
Beck’s turnover-worthy play rate is way up this season, already at nine, but he has shown that when he is kept clean he can make teams pay, completing 71% of his passes with an 89.9 passer grade per PFF. Georgia’s pass rush grade ranks top 10 in the country. If Texas’ defensive line isn’t what many are pegging that it is against easy competition, this may be a big outing for Beck.
Beck over pass yards is my favorite player prop on the board at 264.5. In games in which he has passed the ball more than 35 times over the last two seasons, he has eclipsed this mark in all four of five of them, not going lower than 261. Given the likely game script, and that Georgia is outside the top third in EPA/Rush nationally, I think this game falls on Beck's arm.
Further, the Texas run game has plenty of question marks so far this season, 66th in EPA/Rush. If the team can’t get into third and short, a lot of pressure will be put on Quinn Ewers to make plays with his arm. Not a gifted runner like Jalen Milroe, Georgia may be able to dedicate more men into coverage to give Ewers fits.

UCF vs. Iowa State Betting Notes

UCF is going to start back up Jacurri Brown in this one as the team’s season has quickly dropped off.
Can the Knights use a run-heavy approach to stay within two scores?
The Iowa State defense is below the national average in yards per carry allowed and in terms of tackling, so UCF may be able to play its preferred style.
However, expect another big effort from Rocco Becht through the air for Iowa State, who will be facing a UCF secondary that is 110th in explosive pass rate.

Kansas State vs. West Virginia Betting Notes

Kansas State will play a second straight night game, this time at West Virginia.
It was a gutsy effort from the Wildcats, who lost several defenders throughout the game (Chris Klieman said the team should have a good injury report this week) and fell behind late due to an errant Avery Johnson pass.
This will be a tough turnaround though, especially with Johnson potentially also banged up with a hip injury that cost him a drive in the second half.
However, the West Virginia defense remains exploitable through the air, bottom three in explosive pass rate. Johnson remains a shaky passer but isn’t afraid to push it down the field. Nearly 32% of Johnson’s passes are more than 10 yards downfield. I may be interested in playing a low over on passing yards for Johnson.
The same can be said for Garrett Greene, who is a dual-threat quarterback like Johnson and will face a potentially gassed Kansas State secondary that is already outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass.
Both players are being lined below 200 yards, as the two are most dangerous as rushers, but I’m actually eyeing both overs on Saturday night.

SMU vs. Stanford Betting Notes

Terrible schedule spot for Stanford, who is returning home after three trips to the East Coast since its BYE week to face a surging SMU team off of a BYE.
Kevin Jennings is the answer at quarterback for the Mustangs, putting the team back in the running for the ACC title.
Jennings has completed nearly 74% of his passes for five touchdowns and no interceptions in three straight starts, leading SMU to wins over TCU, Florida State, and Louisville, scoring 34 or more in each.
Stanford simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with SMU in this one, even if at home.