Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Player Props and Best Bets for Week 7

Reed Wallach | Oct 10, 2024

Oct 4, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a touchdown pass during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

A monumental slate of games that will help determine the remainder of the season goes down this weekend, Week 7 of the college football season.

With marquee matchups like Ohio State and Penn State heading out west to face Oregon and USC, respectively, in a battle of old Big Ten rivals against new Big Ten rivals and Ole Miss and LSU meeting in a potential College Football Playoff eliminator, there are plenty of high leverage games, the action is sure to be intense.

Get ready for every Top 25 matchup below with things I'm looking for, betting analysis and player prop thoughts to ensure a profitable Week 7.

College Football Week 8 Preview

Utah vs. Arizona State Betting Notes

• Another Utah game, another question about if Cam Rising is going to suit up this weekend. 
• Rising has missed the last three games with a hand injury and while Isaac Wilson was able to navigate a road win at Oklahoma State and against Utah State, those wins aren’t aging super well. 
• This line indicates an expectation that Rising will play on Friday. However, it hasn’t been confirmed just yet, and I believe there’s cause for concern for the Utes. 
• The Utes offense over the balance of the season, 100th in EPA/Play. Of course, Rising has now missed more than half of the season, but I think it’s fair to question his status and how effective he will be. 
• Arizona State, meanwhile, has proven it has a high floor built around a stout defense and an elite run game. 
• The Sun Devils are 234rd in yards per play allowed and are 13th in the country in yards per carry allowed at below three yards per rush. The Utes offense with or without Rising will still feature a heavy dose of running, which can put the team in third-and-long scenarios. 
• Meanwhile, the Utah defense has been vulnerable to big plays, bottom half of the country in explosive pass and run rate. Of course, this is an elite defensive line that can win down-to-down, but with a low total in the mid 40’s, I’m going to go with the more proven commodity in the home underdog. 
• Rising may play and this line may go through a touchdown, but I’m skeptical this Utah team can blowout a proven Big 12 contender in Arizona State on the road. 

South Carolina vs. Alabama Betting Notes

• Alabama is off as shocking of an upset as you can imagine, but the team should have an easier time on defense against the one-dimensional South Carolina offense. 
• The Gamecocks are starting a banged up LeNorris Sellers, who is a non-starter as a passer. South Carolina ranks 97th in EPA/Play and the offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the country. 
• While I do have concerns about the Alabama secondary moving forward, South Carolina won’t be the team to test it. 
• Meanwhile, can the Crimson Tide get on track against an elite SEC defense in South Carolina? Shane Beamer’s bunch ranks top 10 in EPA/Pass this season so it can possibly limit the usually explosive Alabama passing game. 
• Beamer and his Gamecocks couldn’t move the ball against Ole Miss, and the group likely won’t again in Week 7, but he didn’t do his team any favors faking a punt on 4&1 in his own territory on the first drive of the game against the Rebels. The Gamecocks fell behind early and eventually lost 27-3. 
• I don’t expect this game to be all that competitive, but I wonder if Beamer learns from that and opts to take a conservative approach. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has a much more important game on deck with a road trip to Tennessee in Week 8. 

Clemson vs. Wake Forest Betting Notes

• Clemson’s offense continues to look the part as the season goes on, but the team did have some underlying issues in the 16-point win against Florida State. 
• The Tigers posted a 22% red zone success rate against Florida State and had two blocked field goals. 
• I don’t expect the team to struggle at Wake Forest as the team’s defensive line should overwhelm the Demon Deacons pedestrian group of pass blocks, but it’s something to be mindful of moving forward. 
• Wake Forest will be down its leading pass catcher Donavon Greene for this one, which can open up more reps for the likes of Horatio Fields, who has eight targets in the last two games. He’s a player to watch if his receiving yards prop is in the 40-50 yard range. 
• Wake is 125th in EPA/Play, so if you are eyeing Phil Mafah rushing yard props in the low triple digits or Antonio Williams receiving yards props in the 50’s, this should be a more than comfortable setting for the two. 

Missouri vs. Massachusetts Betting Notes

• No idea how this game got put on the schedule, but trying to handicap the psyche of Missouri after it got mauled by Texas A&M 41-10 is not something I’m all that interested in. 
• UMass remains one of the bottom feeders of the FBS level, so I’m not counting on much from them, but is Mizzou going to run up this score with another SEC game on deck? 
• The team had a non-conference game against Boston College, winning 27-21 at home, but the most apt comparisons come in the other two. The Tigers beat FCS Murray State 51-0 and Buffalo 38-0. 
• UMass team total under would be my preferred method of playing this one with the Tigers likely looking to just get out of this one with a clean bill of health. 

Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Notes

• Always a must-watch event, even if the stakes appear to be lower with Oklahoma being down relative to preseason expectations. 
• However, this will be another test for National Championship contenders Texas, who are expected to get back star quarterback Quinn Ewers for the Red River Showdown. 
• Oklahoma likely won’t be able to generate many scoring chances, but did have a BYE to prepare for the Longhorns defense tha ranks No. 1 in EPA/Play on defense. 
• I expect the Sooners to implement a run-first approach and use Hawkins in designed rush plays to try and maintain the ball for as long as possible. 
• The OU defense is legit, and it may just take a few bounces to get ahead in this one. Last season, the Longhorns figured out the Sooners defense under Brent Venables in the second half, out-gaining the Sooners by over 100 yards, but three turnovers proved to be the difference. 
• That game ended 34-30 with Dillon Gabriel (now at Oregon) leading a game winning touchdown drive. 
• This season is expected to be way different with a total a shade below 50, but can this Texas defense maintain its discipline and will Ewers re-enter the lineup in mid-season form? 
• One prop I’m looking at in this game is Jaydon Blue under 64.5 rushing yards. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was a bit coy when discussing Blue’s role out of the BYE, and there can be more of a timeshare with Quintrevion Wisner factoring in. Even so, Blue has only gone over this mark once this season and OU ranks fifth in yards per carry allowed. 

Penn State vs. USC Betting Notes

• Gut check time for USC, who has been humbled quickly in the Big Ten against bruising groups like Michigan and Minnesota. 
• However, I’m going to trust Lincoln Riley at home against a potentially overrated Penn State secondary. 
• Penn State has an elite defense of course, but the team hasn’t been tested all that much in the secondary and ranks 37th in EPA/Pass despite a relatively easy strength of schedule to date. Can USC find some answers with one of the best game planners in the country in Lincoln Riley on the other side of the field? 
• USC is off a shaky offensive showing against Minnesota, but 30 miles per hour gusts definitely played a role in the team’s pass-first offense struggling. 
• I’m definitely concerned about USC’s pass blocking, graded as the eighth worst in the country to date per Pro Football Focus, but this is a quick pass scheme for USC anyway, I believe there can be some space for the Trojans to move the ball down the field.
• Meanwhile, while Penn State hasn’t looked interested in putting up points over the last few weeks, the team has a high ceiling, evident in the team’s 34-point effort at West Virginia in which it posted nearly eight yards per play. 
• I believe this is a game where PSU opens up the playbook, and a healthy Singleton can help get the team back to full strength. 
• The USC defense is improved, but far from elite still, 57th in EPA/Play and struggling to get to the quarterback, outside the top 100 in sacks and tackles for loss. 
  

Stanford vs. Notre Dame Betting Notes

• The key in this one is if Stanford can get back its starting quarterback Aston Daniels, who missed the Virginia Tech loss due to a foot injury. 
• Daniels isn’t a world beater, but the Stanford offense couldn’t move the ball through the air without him, and now the team faces an elite Notre Dame defense. 
• The Fighting Irish are off a BYE week and stanford is traveling back across the country for a third time in four weeks, this can be a wash of an effort form the Cardinal. 

Cal vs. Pittsburgh Betting Notes

• Tough spot for the Golden Bears to travel across the country to face an undefeated Pitt squad after blowing a three score second half lead to Miami in the final seconds. 
• The Golden Bears took some body blows in that one with stud running back Jaydn Ott landing on the injury report (probable) and Fernando Mendoza taking a massive shot late in the game (not listed). 
• Can the team rebound? Pitt has been way better than expectation with a new look offense under Kade Bell. The Panthers rank 11th in EPA/Play with quarterback Eli Holstein providing both passing and rushing prowess and stud running back Desmond Reid averaging six yards per carry this season. 
• My lean is to Pitt at -3 or better as well as the over as I’m not sold on this Cal defense being able to withstand the explosive play of the Panthers on the road. 

Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Notes

• Turns out firing the offensive coordinator wasn’t the problem for the Boilermakers, who got boat raced by Wisconsin 52-6 last week. 
• Illinois resumes play out of a BYE in hopes of securing bowl eligibility early into October. 
• This should be a great set-up for the Illini against the Boilermakers, who have lost its four FBS games by the score of 184-44. 
• Purdue’s secondary has been gashed under former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, who plays a predominantly man coverage scheme. The Boilermakers are 117th in EPA/Pass and 125th in coverage grade, per PFF. 
• I’m eyeing Illinois passing and receiving props for Luke Altmyer, Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant, the engine behind the top 20 Fighting Illini passing game in terms of EPA/Pass. 

Arizona vs. BYU Betting Notes

• One of the more intriguing games on the slate as BYU puts its undefeated record on the line against Arizona. 
• The Wildcats are a tough team to peg this season as the team has a double digit underdog upset at Utah, but also has home losses to Texas Tech and a blowout loss at Kansas State. 
• The offense has shifted under new head coach Brent Brennan, having Noah Fifita push the ball down the field more. He is averaging about two more yards per pass this season, and it has led to six interceptions, which is as many as he had in nine starts last season. 
• Maybe it’s growing pains, maybe this is who he is, but I can’t look past this BYU team as not worth this type of price against an Arizona defense that ranks 52nd in EPA/Play and still has the likes of Tetairoa McMillan on offense. 
• The Cougars had a BYE to prepare for this one, but did close as three-point underdogs at Baylor prior to that. 
• The team ranks top 15 in the country in turnovers gained and 19th in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. These are two variance driven metrics that could regress over the course of the season. 
• Keep an eye on Quali Conley’s rushing yard prop if it appears in the 60’s or even the low 70’s. He is the clear top running back with at least 10 carries in every game and the Wildcats may look to establish the run against a middling rush defense of the Cougars. 

Mississippi State vs. Georgia Betting Notes

• With Texas on deck, is Georgia interested in running up the score on a lowly Mississippi State team? 
• It’s worth noting that Mississippi State closed as a 37.5-point underdog at Texas before its BYE week, covering in a 35-13 loss. 
• However, this week the point spread is about -34 in favorite of UGA. Logic points me towards the home favorite. 

Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Notes

• Tennessee was humbled in its lost at Arkansas, but the team did prove its worth on the defensive side of the ball. 
• The question is if Nico Iamaleava can grow in the loss after completing only 58% of his passes while taking four sacks against a sturdy Arkansas defense. 
• Florida’s defense doesn’t possess the havoc drivers that the Hogs have. Florida is below the national average in havoc rate and is 101st in EPA/Play. 
• This should be a good get-right spot for the Vols at home with Alabama on deck, but I am curious to see if this passing game can kick it into gear after continuing to show signs of shaky play. 

Ohio State vs. Oregon Betting Notes

• A lot to unpack for this one in a potential Big Ten Championship preview. 
• Let’s start with Oregon, who has been shaky at times during the early part of the season with Dillon Gabriel stepping in for Bo Nix. 
• Gabriel has struggled with some turnovers relative to usual care with the pigskin, but the bigger concern is Oregon’s offensive line blocking Ohio State. 
• The Ducks are outside the top 20 nationally in run and pass blocking while the Buckeyes are second in both on the defensive side of the ball. 
• With less time, Gabriel hasn’t been able to push the ball down the field. The Ducks 97th in explosive pass rate and are 116th in explosive rush rate. While the team is still efficient, 16th in success rate, its fair to question if the team can methodically move the ball down the field on a defense of Ohio State’s caliber. 
• Now, the Ducks have plenty of talent with a veteran like Gabriel under center, a stud running back in Jordan James and a standout wide receiver in Tez Johnson at play caller Will Stein’s disposal. There is a ceiling that hasn’t been reached yet. 
• At the same time, Ohio State has shown us bits and pieces as to how great it can be. The team hasn’t had to show much, but the flashes are brilliant. 
• The team is third in EPA/Play, tops in line yards and averaging north of six yards per carry. 
• I’m curious if Oregon’s much improved defense can put the team into third and long to put some more pressure on Will Howard to pass. 
• The Kansas State transfer has made five big time throws to five turnover worthy plays and has passed the ball 20 yards down the field only 11 times. 
• What happens if Ohio State has to pass and Oregon can get home against an OSU offensive line that is 40th in PFF’s pass block grade? 
• This will give us a true sense of if Ohio State is the legitimate National Championship favorite, and if Oregon is in the mix as well, or is this a team that has a defined ceiling that is far lower than the Buckeyes. 
• As for props, my eyes are on TreVeyon Henderson, who is priced below Quinshon Judkins due to the difference in snap counts this season, but is underrating No. 32’s explosiveness. 

Ole Miss vs. LSU Betting Notes

• This is a brutal set up for Ole Miss, who is playing its seventh straight game on the road against LSU at one of the toughest venues in the country. 
• The Tigers are 108-15 at home in night games at Tiger Stadium, and undefeated under Brian Kelly. 
• Ole Miss has a mounting injury report, due in most part to the grueling schedule, that includes wide receiver Tre Harris, stud pass rusher Princely Umanmielen and running back Henry Parrish. Further, there are several offensive linemen rotating in due to injuries. 
• The Rebels were able to bounce back after a loss to Kentucky to beat a similarly structured unit in South Carolina, focused on defense and grinding games to a halt. 
• This game will be far different against the explosive LSU offense. Does Ole Miss have enough in the tank with a fresh Tigers team out of a BYE week to keep pace? 
• LSU is a live underdog here with the schedule set up and for the fact that this is the first team Ole Miss has faced that is inside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass and averaging over six yards per play. 

Iowa State vs. West Virginia Betting Notes

• Iowa State’s defense will always have a high floor under Matt Campbell, but my question is how good is it really? 
• The Cyclones are top five in EPA/Play this season and allowing less than a point per drive, but haven’t faced the most difficult offenses to date, with only Baylor ranking inside the top 80 nationally in EPA/Play. The Mountaineers check in 31st in that metric. 
• The dual threat Garrett Greene may have some shortcomings as a passer, but I believe his ability to stress defenses with his legs is going to open up this Iowa State defense for the home team to move the ball down the field. I’m eyeing his rushing yard prop at 55.5 yet again despite leaving last week with an injury. 
• I do have concerns about the other side of the ball for West Virginia, as the team is 133rd in explosive pass defense and the secondary is going to struggle to keep up with Becht’s big arm. The Cyclones have been a potent passing attack all season, and the team’s ability to give Becht time to throw is critical. The team has allowed only three sacks on the season. 
• This game will be tight, but I believe there’s an avenue to points for both teams, leading me to the over. 
• Becht over passing yards is among my favorite plays on the board this week at anything below 255.5.

Kansas State vs. Colorado Betting Notes

• Colorado may be in for another big offensive output with the elite Sanders primed to dice up Kansas State’s defense. 
• The Wildcats defense is elite against the run, ranking fifth in EPA/Rush and 16th in yards per carry allowed, but the Buffaloes are a pass-happy offense. Colorado passes the ball nearly 62% of the time when it possesses the ball, fifth in the country. 
• Sanders has been fantastic all season,  making 15 big time throws to two turnover worthy plays while racking up 1,630 passing yards in five games. 
• I do question how Kansas State will do if it can’t establish the run and play from ahead. Avery Johnson has been dynamic as a rusher, but is still struggling as a passer, evident in the team’s turnover filled loss at BYU. 
• Johnson only has four big time throws to six turnover worthy plays this season, but the offense has become even more run-focused, leaning into his strengths. He has tallied more than 60 yards on the ground in the last three games against conference foes. 
• The Colorado defense has its flaws, but at home, it’s tough not to get excited about the prospect of another CU win as underdogs. 
• Colorado team total in the mid 20’s is also a strong play given Kansas State’s inability to slow down the opposing passing game. 

Boise State vs. Hawaii Betting Notes

• If you’re staying up late for this one, you may as well key in on Ashton Jeanty’s drive for history. 
• Jeanty is well on his way to pushing Barry Sanders for the single season rushing record in college football, which is 2,628 yards, averaging a video game like stat line through five weeks. The Broncos RB has rushed for 1,031 yards on nearly 11 yards per rush with 16 (!) in five games. 
• If Jeanty stays on the pace he is on for 13 games (including the Mountain West Championship Game) he’d finish with2,680 yards. 
• However, the Boise State defense remains a big concern, and it may not get better in Honolulu on Saturday night. 
• The defense is 108th in EPA/Play and is allowing 30 points per game. Can the Rainbow Warriors put some points on the board, even as three possession underdogs? 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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