Reed' Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Predictions and Betting Analysis for Week 14

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) gets up after throwing an interception during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Oklahoma won 24-3. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The long winding road of the college football season has met its culmination. 

It’s rivalry week, and loose ends will be tied up nationwide. Whether it's a battle for bowl eligibility, securing a spot in the conference title game, or a team positioning itself for the College Football Playoff this is the last full slate for teams to make a lasting impression. 

With every team in action, every ranked team is in action, and don’t you worry, I have betting notes on all of them. 

Our final regular season Reed ‘Em and Weep of the season. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Betting Notes for Week 14

Memphis vs. Tulane Betting Notes

• I’ve been pretty firm on Tulane being the best Group of Five team in the country this season (yeah, I’m talking to you Boise State fans), but this is a tricky test for the Green Wave. 
• Memphis will be one of the few teams in the AAC that can match Tulane’s talent on both sides of the ball and pack enough offensive firepower to keep up with the conference favorites. 
• Tulane has faced two teams in AAC play that are inside the top 90 in EPA/Play, Navy and North Texas. Navy is a unique case as a triple option outfit, but Memphis has some similarities to North Texas. 
• North Texas passed the ball for over 400 yards and scored 37 points on Tulane. I do think this Green Wave defense has received a bit of a misguided bump in its rating due to its demolition of poor teams. 
• With that in mind, I like Seth Henigan over passing yards below 230 yards in the Thanksgiving matchup. 

Oregon State vs. Boise State Betting Notes

• Boise State continues to underperform as we hit the stretch run of the season, playing to a net +10 yards over the last three games, will the team hunt a blowout win against Oregon State in a meaningless game? 
• The Broncos have punched its ticket to the Mountain West title game, and don’t need style points either, simply a win. I’m interested to see how the team approaches this game. 
• Oregon State snapped its five-game losing streak with an upset win against Washington State in the PAC-2 title game last week, now just one win away from bowl eligibility under first-year head coach Trent Bray. 
• The Beavers have fallen off a cliff on both sides of the ball, bottom 15 in the country in net yards per play, but what’s the state of the Broncos in this one? 
• Ashton Jeanty exited in the second half with an injury but returned to help avoid a massive upset at Wyoming last week. The expectation is that the Heisman Trophy candidate will play, but just how much? 

Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Betting Notes

• Colorado’s chances of making the Big 12 title game took a big hit with its loss at Kansas in Week 13, but the team will look to finish on a high note at home against Oklahoma State, the biggest disappointment in the conference. 
• The Pokes started freshman Maealiuaki Smith last week and the expectation is that he goes against the Buffs’ stout pass rush in this one. 
• However, my preference in this game is to zoom in on fading the Cowboys' porous defense.
• Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed the following point totals to opponents last season: 22, 42, 38, 38, 38, 42, 38, 56. It’s not pretty. 
• I expect this game to lack much juice given the limited stakes and the poor Ok. State defense. The biggest stakes on the line is Travis Hunter’s Heisman Trophy campaign, which is being priced at a near certainty (89.47% implied probability at FanDuel Sportsbook). 
• With that in mind, go over on Hunter’s receiving yards total as I did at 99.5. I believe the mandate will be clear to get him the ball as much as possible in order to pad his stats in his likely final regular season game before the vote is due. 

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Betting Notes

• Ole Miss laid an egg at Florida last week, likely costing the team a chance to make the College Football Playoff. 
• How will the team respond at home against rival, but down, Mississippi State team? The Bulldogs have been a disaster this season, especially on defense, allowing at least 33 points in every SEC game this season. 
• However, are the Rebs going to take its frustration out on a rival given the injuries all over the roster, including at the skill positions after Tre Harris suffered another injury last week? 
• I’m not super interested in getting involved in this one with motivations all over the place. 

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Betting Notes

• Georgia Tech is 13-6 against the number when catching points, including 10 outright upsets. While I won’t go for the moneyline here, I do think there are avenues to the Ramblin’ Wreck keeping it close. 
• However, I wonder if some of the team’s success of late can be opponent-driven. 
• Georgia Tech has been shuttling in two quarterbacks over its last two games after starter Haynes King suffered a shoulder injury. The team has used freshman Andrew Philo in more obvious passing situations. 
• The team was able to get Miami out of a rhythm with a near-service academy-like approach a few weeks back, and the team hit enough big plays to outlast NC State at home. 
• I expect the team to try and keep this on the ground and move it on a Bulldogs rush defense that looked in rough shape after UMass ran for more than 200 yards in UGA’s home win. Can Georgia Tech play keep away and slow this game down to a limited possession battle? 
• We’ve seen Ga. Tech thrives in the role of an underdog, but I’m much more interested in the under. 
• In every game that Georgia Tech has been an underdog in, the game has stayed under the total. 
• This checks with how the team handles those types of games, by playing slow and limiting mistakes. With Georgia set to play in the SEC Championship Game next week, I imagine Kirby Smart will happily follow that script.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Notes

• The interesting part of this game to me is how Michigan’s defense does against an Ohio State offensive line that is down three of its starting linemen. 
• The Buckeyes did struggle at times against Indiana's defensive line, especially in short-yardage situations, which can be impactful as the Wolverines have one of the best groups in the trenches in the country. 
• If the Ohio State running game can’t get going, the team can lean on its aerial attack, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has made it clear that this is a run-first group that likes to utilize that to open up the passing game. 
• However, Howard has been money against the blitz this season, a primary facet of the Wolverines' defense. Howard has posted a pass grade of 80.4 when blitzed while completing more than 72% of his passes with 14 touchdowns to only one interception, per Pro Football Focus. 
• It’s worth noting that Michigan’s cornerback and potential top 10 pick Will Johnson may miss this game as well. 
• There could be some stalled drives in this one, but the point spread correctly shows the gap on the other side of the ball, where Michigan will struggle to move the ball against Ohio State’s defense. 
• The Buckeyes let up an opening drive touchdown to Indiana, but after that, essentially shut down the Hoosiers offense. Outside of that possession, Indiana averaged less than two yards per play.
• Michigan isn’t a threat in the passing game, outside the top 120 nationally in EPA/Pass, and the offense likely won’t be able to sustain drives with a run-only approach with a talent gap in the trenches.
• Now, Ohio State may want to run this game up if the game gets to garbage time, so any full-game bets could be hanging onto that. I’d only lay it with the Buckeyes in this game as I can’t see the Wolverines keeping up for a full 60 minutes. 

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Betting Notes

• The veer-and-shoot offense that Josh Huepel runs hasn’t connected in terms of big plays as the team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass and rush rate. 
• Vanderbilt has done a remarkable job all season with limiting big plays and the amount of possessions in the game as the team has limited mistakes and been able to stay on the field. 
• It’s no surprise that the team has covered in all six games as an underdog. 
• With fewer possessions, it's harder to get margin on a team if it's able to get timely stops. While the Tennessee defensive line is among the best in the country, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to stack up in SEC play and string together quality drives. The ‘Dores rank 52nd in the country in points per drive at over two. 
• Tennessee’s offense has been well below expectations all season as the team relies on its lead back, Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load. Sampson the Tennessee offense averages over five yards per carry, but the Commodores defense is a top 50 rush defense in terms of EPA/Play. 
• With fewer possessions and an offense that has been shaky at times this season, only 54th in EPA/Play, I believe that the home underdog can stay close yet again. 
• Tennessee has beaten one SEC team by more than 10 points this season, the league’s worst unit Mississippi State, and I don’t see it happening here. 

South Carolina vs. Clemson Betting Notes

• Both teams are on the fringes of the College Football Playoff discussion, and this matchup can pit massive mismatches for both offensive lines. 
• Clemson has been banged up in the trenches for weeks now and must hope for better health on the left side of the offensive line ahead of this one against a South Carolina defensive line that is top five in the country in pass rush grade, per PFF. 
• Against the three elite pass rushes the team has faced, Clemson has failed to crack more than five yards per play against Georgia, Louisville, and Pitt. 
• However, South Carolina’s offensive outburst may be in for its toughest test on the road against a havoc-driven Clemson defense that is top-five in havoc. 
• The Gamecocks offensive line has struggled mightily this season, bottom 10 in sacks this season. 
• I think the under is the best method in this game. 

UTSA vs. Army Betting Notes

• How does Army respond to its first loss of the season? 
• The Black Knights were outclassed against Notre Dame and now will take on a surging UTSA team that will look to get a win over Army after a home loss to the service academy last season. 
• The Roadrunners have a stingy defensive line, top five in tackles for loss and line yards while ranking top 10 in EPA/Rush, which may cause serious issues for Army’s run-first offense. 
• However, it’s fair to question how the team will handle the prep for this one after a late-season surge to qualify for a bowl last week. 
• Last season, Army won at the Alamodome with a staggering 45-minute time of possession, winning 37-29. 
• I can see a case for the over with a similar game script to last year, UTSA averaged more than seven yards per play in the loss, but the defense wasn’t built to slow down the Black Knights.

Illinois vs. Northwestern Betting Notes

• Illinois continues to string together wins at the expense of poor secondarys, but will the team find success against in-state foe Northwestern with wind gusts north of 20 miles per hour during the game? 
• Northwestern has struggled to keep up with most Big Ten teams, but the team should find success against Illinois on the ground, which is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush. 
• In a slow-paced game with limited stakes, I’d only side with the home underdog. 

Maryland vs. Penn State Betting Notes

• Maryland’s offense has fallen apart down the stretch of the season, and we won’t know who will be quarterback likely until just before game time after Billy Edwards left with an injury, leaving M.J. Morris to fill in against Iowa. 
• The Terps haven’t been able to run the ball all season – the team is 120th in EPA/Rush – but have been able to utilize its passing game when at full strength with the likes of Tai Felton and Kaden Prather. 
• However, on the road with what might be a lame-duck coach in Mike Locksley after a punt in the final seconds of the game down two scores last week, I don’t think we see much of an effort from the Terps. 
• The Maryland rush defense has been the strength of the unit this season, so we can see some resistance against a rush-first Penn State team, but I don’t expect an upset or anything. 
• The under is my favorite method in this game as Penn State is likely interested in getting through this game as healthy as possible. 

Notre Dame vs. USC Betting Notes

• Notre Dame has been destroying teams all season, but I do believe that USC can provide some resistance to the Fighting Irish on both sides of the ball. 
• As we head into the season finale, Notre Dame has faced two teams with at least comparable skill position players in Texas A&M and Louisville. Now, the team will face a third in USC. 
• Let’s start with the defense. Under first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, the Trojans defense has made some serious strides. While not an elite unit by any means, the group has been sturdy and has done a great job of limiting explosive plays, ranking top half of the country in EPA/Play this season. 
• Notre Dame has been able to torch poor defenses, but this USC defense is closer to average and I believe that the Irish may be a bit bloated in terms of its offensive rating. The group remains right around the national average in terms of EPA/Pass, preferring to lean on its run game, and is third in the nation. 
• Further, the team plays at an incredibly slow tempo, 107th in seconds per play, so I believe that there can be several methodical possessions here, and if a few lead to field goal attempts or no points, this game can be a methodical affair. 
• Meanwhile, the Trojans' best course of action on offense has been leaning on its ground game with Woody Marks, but that has been the strength of the Notre Dame defense, ranking top 25 in yards per carry allowed. 
• The new starting quarterback, UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava, has been inconsistent thus far, but I do believe that USC will have opportunities in the passing game to test a ND defense that has been without its top cornerback Benjamin Morrison, but not tested.

Auburn vs. Alabama Betting Notes

• Alabama got boat raced on the road against Oklahoma, possibly ending the team’s College Football Playoff hopes. 
• Now, the team plays the always-hyped rivalry game, “The Iron Bowl” against Auburn. 
• The Tigers may not be bowl-eligible at the moment, but the team has been snake-bitten by turnovers all season. Actually, the team has a better net yards per play mark than the Crimson Tide, sixth to Bama’s 14th. 
• Kalen DeBoer’s group has been able to ratchet it up in big games, and this certainly fits the bill, but it’s tough to get a beat on what Alabama team we will see at home against Auburn. 
• The Tigers offense has been shaky all season but looked similar last season heading into the 2023 Iron Bowl and went toe-to-toe with the Crimson Tide, leading until the final minute of the game. 
• The Auburn offense is coming on as the season comes to a close, and the team has an emerging threat at wide receiver in freshman Cam Coleman that can test a leaky Alabama secondary that is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense. 
• Last season, Auburn only completed five passes in the near-upset, but the team may have more avenues than expected to scheme up some deep shots.

Miami (Florida) vs. Syracuse Betting Notes

• Miami controls its destiny to the ACC Championship but must take care of a road game against the explosive pass offense of Syracuse. 
• In a game with a total in the high 60’s, I’m expecting fireworks in this one. 
• Syracuse’s defense has been shaky all season, but Miami’s defense is a bigger concern as a double-digit road favorite. The Hurricanes are outside the top 100 in explosive rush and pass defense and have covered just two spreads as double-digit favorites in ACC play, but those two covers required late touchdowns. 
• Syracuse has gone as far as Kyle McCord’s arm takes them, passing at a top-10 rate in the country. 
• However, keep an eye on the status of Trebor Pena, his favorite pass catcher who left last week with an injury. 
• Syracuse has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Miami, who still needs to prove it can handle a team with a capable offense for a full 60 minutes given the current state of its defense. 
• Cam Ward will get his, but McCord might get his too. 

Cal vs. SMU Betting Notes

• Cal stormed the field after a fourth-quarter rally against rival Stanford to clinch a bowl game. 
• Motivations could be in question as the team heads to Fort Worth to face a surging SMU team that has plans on making a College Football Playoff push. 
• Since moving to Kevin Jennings full-time, SMU has been dismantling opponents, scoring at least 28 points in every game, and an average of 41.12 in eight starts. 
• Jennings must be careful against a havoc-driven Cal defense under head coach Justin Wilcox, top 10 in turnovers gained and 19th in sacks, but I believe the Mustangs have the firepower to stay on its CFP path. 

Arizona State vs. Arizona Betting Notes

• Arizona State is one win away from a Big 12 title game appearance in its first season in the league, but the team must get past in-state foe Arizona on the road. 
• Last season, the roles were reversed for these two as Arizona was enjoying a big season and Arizona State was in disarray and the Wildcats won 59-23.
• Arizona has been terrible in Big 12 play, scoring only a win against rebuilding Houston and six of eight defeats by more than double digits. 
• With Tetairoa McMillian at wide receiver, Arizona has upside, but it hasn’t been realized in this offensive scheme under head coach Brent Brenhan and his offensive staff. 
• While Arizona State is a bit more vulnerable against the pass, this is a sturdy defense that doesn’t allow explosive passes and the Wildcats are 114th in success rate. 
• Ultimately, this game figures to be an 180-degree turn to last season where Arizona State dishes out some payback to its in-state rival and punches its ticket to Arlington for the Big 12 title game next weekend. 

Arkansas vs. Missouri Betting Notes

• Missouri has seemingly righted the ship after a mid-season swoon, due in part to injuries. 
• With quarterback Brady Cook and running back Nate Noel back healthy, this matchup sets up nicely for the Tigers at home against long-time rival Arkansas. 
• The Hogs have been a good bet as a double-digit underdog, but I don’t like this matchup for them against the home favorite. 
• The Tigers' defense has been an elite rush defense all season, 15th in EPA/Rush, which can put the Hogs in obvious passing downs which has been an inconsistent facet of the offense all season. The team has allowed a ton of sacks on the year, outside the top 100 as Taylen Green has been up and down in his first season in the SEC. 
• Meanwhile, the healthy Cook should have the edge against Arkansas’ leaky secondary. The rush defense is stout, but the team is bottom 20 in EPA/Pass. 
• A week removed from clinching bowl eligibility, I think we see Arkansas come up short on the road. 

Purdue vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

• -Purdue hasn’t beaten an FBS team this season, and it’s been absolutely blasted against elite opponents. 
• Against four College Football Playoff contenders (Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State) the Boilermakers have lost a combined 195-17.
• Indiana will win with ease and likely score a cover. 

Washington vs. Oregon Betting Notes

• Last year, Washington bested Oregon in two thrilling affairs to get to the College Football Playoff. Now, with a ton of new faces with Washington in a down year, the Ducks will look to punch its ticket to the Big Ten Championship and beyond with a blowout win against Washington. 
• With a BYE week for both teams, this should be a full effort with the playbook wide open. 
• Oregon may get wide receiver Tez Johnson back for this one, which would boost the team’s passing game around Maxwell Award finalist Dillon Gabriel. 
• However, I’m interested in the run game around Jordan James, who was battling injuries during the team’s stretch run of league play. The Huskies' defense is 104th in EPA/Rush this season, so a fresh James can have a big game at home. 
• Meanwhile, the Huskies haven’t named a starter for this one yet, either struggling starter Will Rogers or dual-threat Devin Williams. 
• Either way, I think the Ducks have the firepower to pour it on the Huskies early and build a lead ahead of the Big Ten title game next week. 

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Betting Notes

• I’d argue Kansas State is the better team in this one. 
• Iowa State has been unimpressive for quite some time, and we saw some signs of life from Kansas State, who must play a clean game that avoids turnovers in order to stay ahead on the scoreboard. 
• Looking at Kansas State’s three losses, the team posted a -6 in terms of turnover margin. 
• Avery Johnson looked spry last week in the team’s blowout win against Cincinnati, rushing for 72 yards. This is a huge boost to the Wildcats offense which is at its best with an 11-man run game with Johnson and DJ Giddens. 
• With the spread inside of a field goal, my preference is to bet the over in this one. 
• With Johnson being a rush threat again after battling some nagging injuries, I believe we see the KSU offense start to look like we have come to expect this season. The team wants to lean on its ground game with Johnson and lead running back DJ Giddens and should see little resistance against an Iowa State defense that is allowing about five yards per carry and is bottom 40 in EPA/Rush. 
• Meanwhile, Iowa State has a top 35 passing game in terms of EPA/Play and is 14th in passing plays of 20 or more yards down the field. That’s massive against Kansas State, who has been shaky defending the pass all season, ranking outside the top 110 in explosive pass rate on the year. I’ll give the edge to Becht and the ‘Clones. 
• I think both offenses move the ball and get a handful of scoring chances and send this game over the total.

Texas vs. Texas A&M Betting Notes

• Texas has concerns about Quinn Ewers's ankle as QB1 in Austin got an MRI this week, but the expectation is that he will play. 
• I wouldn’t be surprised if Arch Manning had some packages this week against a stifling Texas A&M defensive line.
• I think Texas leans on its defense in this one as the unit faced a Collin Klein-led offense when he was with Kansas State last season. While the team scored 30 points, the new Texas A&M offensive coordinator schemed up an offense that averaged about five yards per game, 32nd percentile when compared to games last season. 
• With Ewers's balky ankle, I do believe we see timely deep shots schemed up by Steve Sarkisian as Texas A&M is outside of the top 100 in explosive pass and rush rate, but I believe the team would avoid falling behind the eight-ball in what should be an insane environment at Kyle Field. 
• This is a limited Texas A&M offense that is over-reliant on Marcel Reed as a rusher as he is still a limited passer, which makes me comfortable with trusting this Longhorns defense to shut down the home underdog and find enough answers to win a low-scoring affair. 
• Yes, this is a do-or-die game for Texas A&M, but the winner also has to play next week against Georgia, I believe we see a conservative script. 

Nevada vs. UNLV Betting Notes

• The wheels are falling off for Nevada as the season comes to an end, but don’t sleep on the team’s ability to cover big point spreads. 
• Just a few weeks ago, Nevada covered as 23.5-point underdogs against Boise State with a sound offensive game plan and a prodding pace. 
• Both teams are outside the top 100 in seconds per play, so I do believe the team can limit the possessions for both teams and keep this scoreline competitive.

Houston vs. BYU Betting Notes

• What does BYU have left in the tank? 
• After a chaotic run through the Big 12, BYU is still in the mix for the conference title game but must get past Houston at home to stay in the mix. 
• The Cougars have been played out of games quickly if the group falls behind early, but I do wonder if the team can find success in this one. 
• The defense has been sturdy for much of this season and is onto something with quarterback Zeon Chriss leading a ground-focused offense. 
• BYU is a national average defense in terms of EPA/Rush and plays at a plodding pace. 
• Houston, who fired its offensive coordinator this week Kevin Barbay, may open up the playbook and keep up with the Cougars in the season finale.

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