Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Preview and Predictions for Week 13

Reed Wallach | Nov 21, 2024

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA;Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) carries the ball during the first half against the Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Only two weeks left!

With many online arguing over who has the best College Football Playoff resume, there are still games to be played that will likely sort the debates out themselves. Some big games are on the docket, including Indiana vs. Ohio State in a top-five showdown and a handful of consequential Big 12 matchups.

I have notes on all the biggest games, let’s waste no time and dump the notebook on what I’m looking for in these games as well as bets and player prop thoughts.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Betting Notes for Week 13

UNLV vs. San Jose State Betting Notes

Fun one out west to get us ready for the full serving of football on Saturday.
San Jose State kept up with Boise State last week with its aerial attack that features the leading receiver in the country Nick Nash and senior Justin Lockhart.
I’m not sold UNLV’s defense can get many stops in this one, allowing at least 27 points in all but one game since the beginning of October, so I believe we can be in for a shootout.
The SJSU defense has benefitted from an easy schedule but is still outside the top 100 in rush defense grading according to Pro Football Focus, so I expect a big night from Hajj-Malik Williams on the ground.
Williams has gone over his rushing yard prop of 62.5 in five of seven starts this season, and that’s my favorite way to target this one.

Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Notes

While Indiana is a monster underdog in this one, is there some hope building for the Hoosiers?
Ohio State lost its third starting offensive lineman for the season, center Seth McGlaughlin, who tore his Achilles in practice this week. The strength of the Indiana defense is its defensive line, will the group be able to get some push now with injuries starting to mount in the trenches?
Ohio State is far and away the best team that Indiana has faced this season, and we saw some cracks in the armor for the Hoosiers when it matched up against an elite defense in Michigan just two weeks ago. The Buckeyes have the ability to stress defenses out all over the field, and I wonder if the depth of Indiana can be tested and it eventually wilts.
I find myself believing in the Buckeyes passing game the most in this one.
The only time that Indiana faced even an average passing game in Washington, the Huskies moved the ball well through the air, even out-gaining the Hoosiers despite the IU victory.
While there may be some growing pains for the OSU offense with some changing pieces on the line, I ultimately think there is too many avenues to success against the Hoosiers' defense.
My favorite to bet player props in this game is Emeka Egbuka’s over receiving yards at 50.5. He is a zone coverage monster, which is primarily the defense that Indiana runs, running more than two yards per route run and garnering a team-high 40 targets against zone coverage.
The Hoosiers haven’t faced an elite passing offense all season, and there are few more capable passing attacks than the Buckeyes. Further, with some questions on the offensive line, there’s a possibility that the Buckeyes try to spread the Hoosiers defense out, which makes me confident that Egbuka can get a handful of catches that gets over this depressed number.
As for the side and total, I do lean with the Buckeyes, but I can see a case for the over in this one.
Indiana has not been shy pushing the ball down the field, and Kurtis Rourke has completed 51% of his passes that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. Can IU scheme up a few chunk plays to test the Buckeyes secondary?

Wake Forest vs. Miami Betting Notes

Miami comes out of its BYE week after last being seen losing outright to a banged-up Georgia Tech team.
The Hurricanes can name its number in this one against a porous Wake Forest secondary that is 121st in EPA/Pass and battling injuries in the secondary for the last few weeks.
Further, Wake Forest quarterback Hank Bachmeier left the North Carolina game last week due to an injury, but is reportedly set to start for this one. However, can he exit again this late in the season?
While the Hurricanes simply need to win out to make the ACC Championship Game, there are some interesting subplots to this game, including if Miami seeks style points against a poor opponent. The defense has fallen off a cliff this season, especially defending the pass. Can the team’s defense allow them to get margin?
Either way, this sets up for a big Cam Ward day as he tries to restart a late Heisman Trophy push as the nation’s leading passer. He should see little resistance on Saturday.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Betting Notes

Ole Miss resumes play out of its BYE week in control of its destiny to make the College Football Playoff.
With Tre Harris likely back, the Ole Miss offense can start to resemble its best self out of a BYE week, but I can’t look past the fact that this team has scored more than 27 points just once in SEC play.
Florida may not be an elite defense, but the group continues to string together quality play with DJ Lagway under center. Despite not being super efficient last week in a minor upset against LSU, completing less than 50% of his passes, the Gators leaned on its defensive line and schemed up explosive plays to cash in on scoring chances.
Ole Miss is far better, though, and I’m not sold that Lagway is 100% after a hamstring injury against Georgia a few weeks back.
The Rebels defensive line should be able to contain the big-play-hunting Florida offense, but I do think UF’s defensive line is onto something, fresh off 11 tackles for loss against LSU.
Ole Miss has been shaky in pass protection all season, and the team is running out of bodies at running back.
Despite the BYE week, I think this game may be lower scoring than anticipated and I like the under in this one.

SMU vs. Virginia Betting Notes

SMU continues to flirt with disaster en route to an ACC title game in its first season, needing just one more win to clinch a berth.
The team heads to Charlottesville to face a Virginia team that suddenly has quarterback questions. Starting quarterback Anthony Colandrea was pulled against Notre Dame and backup Tony Muskett looked decent as the team backdoor covered against the Fighting Irish. It’s unclear who will start this week, but Muskett is not an upgrade, in my opinion.
SMU’s offense continues to have big-play capability, but Kevin Jennings continues to be baited into mistakes. Will it catch up to the ‘Stangs?
I’m not sure if Saturday is the opportunity. While I lean towards the points with the Woos, this is a fairly sharp number and I’m not sure if the team has the defensive firepower to shut down SMU.
Boston College is 54th coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus, and Duke is 38th in pass rush, two teams that gave SMU fits. Virginia has neuter, ranking outside the top 80 in both and outside the top 100 in EPA/Play.
Meanwhile, the Mustangs defensive line that helps pace a top-10 defense in terms of yards per carry should create several obvious passing situations for the Cavaliers where the team can bring pressure on whoever is under center.
SMU team total may not be a bad look in this situation. Even if Virginia keeps up, I believe it will be through its offense.

Massachusetts vs. Georgia Betting Notes

Is Georgia interested in covering?
The team has a far tougher (but still relatively easy) opponent in Georgia Tech next week after beating Tennessee at home in a College Football Playoff entrance exam of sorts.
UMass just fired its head coach Don Brown and has been among the worst teams in college football.

UTEP vs. Tennessee Betting Notes

Similar vibe to before, what’s the motivation for Tennessee here?
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava was in concussion protocol last week, maybe he gets pulled early? However, the Vols are way too explosive on offense against lesser opponents with a vicious defensive line that the team can get margin with relative ease.
Remember, this was a team that beat Kent State 71-0. If the Vols want, they can cover.

Kentucky vs. Texas Betting Notes

Texas continues to enter games as big favorites but continues to not look the part whatsoever.
This offense lacks its expected big-play capability, and while it may not cost them on Saturday against an out-manned Kentucky team, its something worth noting as the team heads towards the postseason.
The Longhorns are at the national average in sacks, below it in tackles for loss allowed, and are 75th in EPA/Rush. This is a very talented Kentucky pass rush that is top 10 in pass rush grading. If the team is able to stop the run, this can get interesting for Texas.
Quinn Ewers continues to struggle overall. He is simply not pushing the ball downfield with any sort of confidence, more than 65% of his passes are within 10 yards.
Kentucky’s offense is a dumpster fire, so it won’t make Texas pay, but the under is something that has my eye as the Longhorns look to get through this game before a challenging road game against in-state foe Texas A&M on deck.

Penn State vs. Minnesota Betting Notes

Penn State is a tricky team to understand.
The Nittany Lions have had a fairly easy schedule, and have taken care of business, with its lone blemish against National Championship favorite Ohio State in a close loss at home.
The team bolsters a ton of talent and is versatile, but I still question what the ceiling is. While the team may not need to get to its ceiling to beat Minnesota, this matchup doesn’t set up great for the road favorites.
Minnesota is off a BYE week and does a great job of limiting explosive plays, making teams drive the length of the field on them. The Golden Gophers are top 40 in both explosive pass and rush rate this season, which isn’t a focal point of the Penn State offense, but is something that can be schemed up to separate from opponents.
With potentially long and prodding drives, each team is outside the top 100 in seconds per play, there can be very few scoring opportunities for each team.
Minnesota has become an efficient offense this season. While the unit is based around the ground game, transfer quarterback Max Brosmer is the key to this one. The New Hampshire product has been precise with the ball, leading an offense that is top 50 in passing success rate. Overall, Minnesota has incorporated more of the quick passing game to its benefit, which can be a good way to offset the elite Penn State pass rush.
I don’t expect many big plays in this one with each defense having the edge, but I’ll take the points as I don’t agree with the market drifting towards Penn State. Just a few weeks ago, the Nittany Lions were less than a touchdown favorite against Wisconsin. This number has gone out too far with Minnesota built to compete with the highly ranked Nittany Lions for all 60 mintues.

BYU vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

This matchup sets up real well for the Sun Devils.
The defense has emerged as one of the best run-stopping units in the nation, ranking top 15 in EPA/Rush, and can limit the BYU rushing attack that has been trending up since lead back LJ Martin returned from injury. If Martin can’t get downhill and get BYU into favorable down and distances, I believe that the Sun Devils can get off the field with relative ease.
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has had some strong showings, but there are still plenty of suspect plays on the field, making 12 big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. There was typical regression coming his way, and it happened against Kansas at home. How will he respond on the road?
Meanwhile, Sam Leavitt of Arizona State has been the engineer of Dillingham’s offense in the passing game, playing sound football all season and keeping the ball out of harm's way. Leavitt has made eight big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.
There should be opportunities for Leavitt to take some shots down the field in this one as Arizona State should stay ahead of schedule for this one with Cam Skattebo on the ground against a BYU defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush.

Colorado vs. Kansas Betting Notes

While there is rightful interest in the underdog Kansas, who is playing its best ball and spoiling Big 12 title contenders seasons seemingly every week now, I believe that this matchup doesn’t suit the Jayhawks very well.
Kansas has been able to rattle off wins in three of the last four due to its ability to run the ball well and shut down the opposing team’s passing game.
The Jayhawks are a top-10 offense in terms of EPA/Rush, but the team will face a stingy Colorado rush defense that is 31st in the country in Pro Football Focus grading. If the team isn’t able to get ahead of the sticks, it can lead to an emerging Buffaloes defensive line to tee off on Daniels, who has been playing better but is also prone to mistakes.
On the season, Daniels has 19 big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays. Earlier in the season, those TWPs were turning into actual turnovers, but of late, he has been on the right side of some variance.
In Kansas’ winning streak, the team has also faced some limited passing games. The best passing offense that the team has faced, Iowa State, scored 36 points and had an EPA/Dropback of 0.62, 95th percentile when compared to games last season, per GameonPaper.
The Jayhawks secondary is the strength of the defense, but it’s not a lockdown group, ranking outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate. I believe it’s a matter of time before the Buffaloes' passing game finds answers with the best pass-catching group in the Big 12, led by Heisman Trophy favorite Travis Hunter.
Kansas is rolling, but the Buffaloes have a ceiling that can’t be matched and a plus matchup.
Of course, the Jayhawks can win the game, but I believe if it does that it’s around its ability to get the run game open and scheme open downfield chances. While the Buffaloes have been on a tear, the team has also faced several limited passing games of late. If Daniels is at his best, the Jayhawks are very live.
My preferred way to bet this game is taking the Colorado team total over at 30.5, something the team has done in six of the last seven games.

Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Betting Notes

I question the true difference between these two teams with a point spread of over a touchdown.
The Panthers may be trotting out backup Nate Yarnell in place of Eli Holstein, but I don’t see much of a difference between both. Yarnell was more than capable of keeping up with Clemson last week at home in a near upset, and I don’t believe that Louisville should be laying this many points given its shaky defense.
The Cards are outside the top 80 in explosive rush and pass defense, which is a big issue against the big play-seeking Pitt offense with the likes of running back Desmond Reid.
Pitt’s defense also has issues, though, 113th in explosive pass defense, so this can be another big day through the air for Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks to target their respective player props.
This game has a ton of variance with both teams out of the ACC title picture and each defense vulnerable to big plays.
I side with the underdog at over a touchdown with Louisville returning home following a loss as 20-point favorites against Stanford, but think the over has some value as well.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Betting Notes

Mississippi State hasn’t won a game in SEC play under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, but the team continues to get better on the offensive side of the ball as the team moved to freshman Michael Van Buren Jr.
I think this is an intriguing spot to back the home underdog off of a BYE week against Missouri, who has had a down year relative to high expectations.
First off, starting quarterback Brady Cook made his return to the field after missing a game-and-a-half due to a few injuries. After spending most of the week questionable, Cook laced them up and led a near-heroic second-half rally to win at South Carolina.
Can Mizzou return to its expectations? There can be a drop in play after an all-in effort with injuries still littering the roster.
Further, the Tigers have struggled to get margin on opponents all season long. Mizzou hasn’t beaten a Power Four team by more than a touchdown all season long, and while Mississippi State is the worst team in the SEC, I can’t trust the road favorites to bury an opponent with a capable offense on the other side.
Since Van Buren has taken over full-time, the Bulldogs have covered in all but one game. While this is a bit of an upgrade in expectation with a spread of near a touchdown, I believe the team can hit a handful of explosives and gun for a first league win.

Army vs. Notre Dame Betting Notes

The undefeated season for Army stops here.
While Army isn’t the same as Navy, the Fighting Irish took on the Midshipmen a few weeks back and the talent gap was far too big, winning 51-14.
The Black Knights have been a great story all year, but the truth of the matter is that a good part of its success can be attributed to its schedule, which hasn’t faced an offense or defense that is top 50 on either side of the ball.
Notre Dame is 15th in EPA/Play on offense and second in EPA/Play on defense and also has prepared for the triple option already this season.
Further, the team is running it up on every opponent when it gets the chance. While the team has also feasted on a soft schedule, the team is winning by an average margin of 32.25.
The Army defensive line has been its weakest point all season, ranking outside the top 110 nationally in defensive line and tackles for loss. Further, the team is top five in the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.
It’s also worth noting that Bryson Daily was out a few weeks back with a foot injury and was a gametime call in the team’s most recent game against North Texas with the same ailment. He may be fine, but he also could have some lingering issues.
Army has been bolstered up by an easy strength of schedule and isn’t equipped to handle Notre Dame.
There is some battle in the market around -14, I’d try and get the flat number and bet the Fighting Irish.

Boise State vs. Wyoming Betting Notes

Boise State avoided a dreaded second loss to San Jose State last week and now should be smooth sailing into the Mountain West title game, and potentially the College Football Playoff.
The Broncos will have little issue disposing of Wyoming on Saturday night and this should be a strong matchup for Ashton Jeanty to continue compiling a historic season.
The Cowboys are 131st in the country in yards per carry allowed and 109th in EPA/Rush. Jeanty should have little issue getting to 200 yards and then some.

Washington State vs. Oregon State Betting Notes

Oregon State continues to find a new bottom this season, fresh off a 28-0 loss to Air Force.
Washington State has had little issue putting up points in this one, but it’s worth noting that after the team lost at New Mexico last week, head coach Jake Dickert mentioned that quarterback John Mateer didn’t practice all week due to a foot injury.
Mateer played well in the loss, but it’s worth monitoring if anything pops up in the game.
Assuming Mateer is fine, I see little issue from Wazzu naming its number.
Oregon State is 114th in EPA/Play and is last in sacks. The team can’t contain any offense, and Washington State is fine running the ball at will, especially in projected rain in Corvallis on Saturday night.
With a team total of 34.5, that would be my preferred method to attack this game.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn Betting Notes

Defensive slugfest on the way in this SEC showdown.
Both defensive lines should have the edge in this one as each offense looks to keep the ball on the ground and lean on its run game.
Auburn is top seven in both yards per carry allowed and EPA/Rush, can the team shut down the Texas A&M run game that features dynamic freshman Marcel Reed?
The Aggies got blasted out of the gates by South Carolina in the road a few weeks back, can visitors get off to a better start?
The Auburn offense is far less dynamic than the South Carolina as quarterback play is a big issue for the Tigers.
Payton Thorne has been in and out as QB1 for the Tigers and the team has struggled to cash in on scoring drives, 100th in points per drive.
Texas A&M must win this game to stay in the College Football Playoff race, and this game will be far from easy, but I do believe the team is dynamic enough to navigate the treacherous Jordan-Hare Stadium at night.
The under is my favorite bet in this game as I don’t see many scoring chances for either team as each offense fails to get much traction.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Notes

The Crimson Tide have shown its high ceiling, but also at times its inability to show up and dominate an opponent.
Oklahoma profiles as a team that Alabama may overlook, especially with the Iron Bowl on deck.
The Sooners may be the healthiest it's been in some time, and with a BYE week to prepare, can the team find some answers against a lackluster Alabama secondary?
Jackson Arnold, who is back under center for OU, has struggled to push the ball down the field, but I wonder if this is a game where the Sooners empty the playbook with the extra time to prepare.
I expect Alabama rips off enough big plays to get the victory, but I wonder if Oklahoma’s offense can find some answers against Alabama’s secondary which is outside the top 90 in explosive pass rate with some added wrinkles.

Vanderbilt vs. LSU Betting Notes

Many will likely point to an upset in this one as Vanderbilt has been able to shock many in SEC play this season, but the number is pretty baked in with LSU laying just over a touchdown at home.
The Tigers have had its season ruined with three straight losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Florida, but I still believe the team has enough firepower to keep Vandy at arm’s length.
I was interested in getting above 10 with the Commodores, but with reports that Diego Pavia is still nursing an injury and gutting it out, I believe that LSU’s passing offense can find answers against the ‘Dores defense that is still 100th in EPA/Pass.
With Garrett Nussmeier starting to show some signs of slowing down, I don’t mind taking a look at the under as well given that Vandy may not be able to muster too many scores.

Cincinnati vs. Kansas State Betting Notes

Cincinnati’s bowl eligibility has become a growing concern as the Bearcats have dropped three straight.
The team is on the road to face Kansas State, who has lost two straight and are out of the Big 12 title race.
The K-State offense has slowed down as the team continued to move away from using Avery Johnson as a rusher, but Chris Klieman hinted that it may be time to let the dual-threat QB loose in the run game in his post-practice comments.
The Wildcats are laying over a touchdown again, which I’m still not sold is an accurate price on K-State against similar Big 12 teams.
However, can Brendan Sorsby make the Wildcats pay through the air? K-State is outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass this season, and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson went crazy last week, catching 12 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Can Cincy’s Xzavier Henderson get going as well and give Cincy a chance on the road?