Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Preview, Predictions and Analysis for Week 12

Reed Wallach | Nov 13, 2024

Nov 2, 2024; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

Only three weeks left in the college football season, and there are few surprises left.

We know the contenders, we know what each team has to offer and we know where each team is strong and weak. What we don’t know is when the ball kicks off on Saturday, who will live up to expectations? My goal is to help get you as prepared for the chaos that is a college football weekend as much as possible with key figures and determining factors for each game.

Without further ado, here is the Week 12 Reed ‘Em and Weep.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Betting Preview Week 12

Ohio State vs. Northwestern Betting Notes

Ohio State showed little issue with running up the score on Purdue last week in the team’s 45-0 route of the Boilermakers and now heads to Wrigley Field to take on an out-matched Northwestern team.
With Indiana on deck, I’m not sure there’s as much incentive as last week for the Buckeyes to hunt margin, but Northwestern will certainly struggle to move the ball against Ohio State.
The Wildcats offense ranks 129th in EPA/Play and has no real edge in terms of generating long-sustaining drives against the Buckeyes' defense.

Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Notes

This game presents an interesting test for Texas, who has benefitted from a far easier schedule than many had anticipated this season.
Arkansas ranks 15th in EPA/Play this season, which will make this the first top-40 offense that the Longhorns have faced on the season.
The Razorbacks had last week off to get Taylen Green (probable) and Ja’Quinden Jackson (“good to go”) ready for this SEC tilt.
The Hogs offense has several advantages against an untested Texas defense both on the ground and through the air as Bobby Petrino has been able to scheme up explosive plays all season. The unit is top 50 in explosive run and pass offense with the dynamic Green at quarterback.
However, Arkansas won’t be able to slow down Texas’ offense which has far too many weapons for a healthy Quinn Ewers to utilize.
Ewers looked at his best last week against Florida since suffering an oblique injury in nonconference play, potentially setting up a late-season uptick in production.
While I like Arkansas’ chances on offense to create some scoring opportunities, I can’t say the same for the defense that is outside the top 100 in explosive rush and pass defense and has struggled to slow down potent passing games, allowing 34 points to LSU and 63 to Ole Miss, for example.
The Razorbacks have a stout defensive line, but the secondary is a big issue and this can be a big outing for the now-healthy Isaiah Bond for Texas. I played over on his receiving yard prop of 56.5 yards given this matchup against a zone-oriented Arkansas defense, which has been where Bond has thrived. The Alabama transfer has averaged nearly three yards per route run and catching 79% of targets against zone coverage.
I also bet the over in this game given that I believe both offenses are set up for success in this one.

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh Betting Notes

Pitt’s offense is starting to run out of gas after a 7-0 start.
With quarterback Eli Holstein potentially out for this one, and injuries mounting on the offensive line, the Panthers are running out of options to field a formidable roster, evident in the point spread against Clemson.
While I question the Tigers’ explosiveness on offense, the unit is 94th in explosive pass rate, and the Panthers secondary has been vulnerable all season, ranking 117th in explosive pass defense.
The Tigers have been able to get serious margin on out-matched opponents in ACC play, and with injuries on the offensive line in addition to Holstein, Pitt fits the bill as that type of matchup.
Despite a potentially fast pace, the under is my preference in this matchup.

Utah vs. Colorado Betting Notes

I’m not sure how Utah gets off the mat after losing in the final seconds to BYU and is down more starters on offense, now last week’s starter Brandon Rose and star tight end Brant Kuithe.
The market has adjusted swiftly to the lack of firepower on the Utes' side, installing them as double-digit underdogs at surging Colorado, led by Heisman Trophy frontrunner Travis Hunter.
The Buffs haven’t been a double-digit favorite in Big 12 play, but the team has shown the ability to get margin on opponents, especially in the second half.
Colorado is +56 in the second half of games in Big 12 play, so a second-half wager on the Buffs could be worthwhile.
It’s worth noting that this game will kick off at 10 AM local time as part of FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff coverage, which can lead to a slow start for both teams, especially as Utah tries to shorten the game with a limited offense and a still elite defense.
The Utes' defense remains top 25 in the country, so I don’t think that this team is totally out of it if the group can turn the Buffaloes over, but ultimately the explosiveness on the Buffaloes' sideline makes me confident the team can find enough answers to win with relative ease.

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Notes

Against teams that are top 20 in net EPA/Play this season – Notre Dame, Oregon, and Ohio State – Purdue has been outscored 146-7.
The Nittany Lions have preferred to keep games on the ground and play a methodical tempo, but the Boilermakers are far out-matched in this one that I would only be interested in betting on the road favorite despite the big point spread.
Remember, Drew Allar suffered a knee injury just two weeks ago, so this can be extended garbage time for the Nittany Lions as the team looks to keep on its College Football Playoff trajectory.
However, as Ohio State showed last week, the Boilermakers can’t seem to avoid mistakes and blown coverages, which can lead to another blowout loss.
The Boilermakers converted only two of 15 third downs and failed on all three fourth downs. If the team is going to be that putrid and aggressive, Penn State will have too many bites at the apple to cover this point spread.

Virginia vs. Notre Dame Betting Notes

Virginia scored an impressive upset at Pitt but is running into a buzzsaw in Notre Dame that appears to be focused on getting margin on opponents in hopes of bolstering its College Football Playoff standing.
The Cavaliers' offensive line may struggle to stay in front of Notre Dame’s elite pass rush. The Woos are bottom 10 in the country in sacks allowed and will face a top 35 pass rush, per Pro Football Focus.
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame won’t have defensive lineman Howard Cross III for this one, a starting defensive lineman, but I still favor the depth of the Irish to shut down UVA’s boom-or-bust offense.

Boston College vs. SMU Betting Notes

Boston College is sticking with backup Grayson James full-time for the rest of the season.
I’m not sure the drop-off is all that much as Castellanos was incredibly volatile and didn’t look like a great fit in head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense.
However, SMU should have little issue getting pressure on BC’s shaky offensive line and continuing on its ACC Championship Game path out of its BYE week.
James made one start this season, completing only 59% of his passes against Western Kentucky on a low average depth of target. Against SMU, I don’t envision that the Eagles' offense can find answers.
The Mustangs have the best rush defense in the country in terms of EPA/Rush and have an aggressive defensive line that is 20 in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus.
If BC is going to have to play from behind schedule, I don’t believe the team has the capability with James under center to push the ball down the field.
The Eagles have allowed 31 or more in three straight games, and SMU has been able to get the offense going in a big way since turning to Kevin Jennings at quarterback. The Mustangs have scored 28 or more in every game with Jennings at quarterback.

LSU vs. Florida Betting Notes

LSU had its College Football Playoff hopes all but end last week at home against Alabama, so what will we see from the Tigers on the road against Florida?
For Florida to have a chance, the team must get DJ Lagway back on the field from his hamstring injury, which is still up in the air as of this writing.
If Lagway can’t go, the aggressive pass rush of LSU should be able to keep any advances from the Florida offense at bay, and this should be a good opportunity for Brian Kelly’s group to get back on track.
If Lagway can go, look out for the Gators' offense that showed flashes of big play ability with the freshman under center. LSU is bottom 10 in the country in explosive rush rate and right at the national average (59th) in explosive pass rate.
While LSU has become a pass-only offense essentially, top five in pass play percentage, this can be a good game for freshman Caden Durham to give quarterback Garrett Nussmeier some help out of the backfield.
Florida is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush. With a more balanced offense, this can get the LSU offense back on track after going stale over the last game-and-a-half.

Louisville vs. Stanford Betting Notes

This is typically a great opportunity to sell high on Jeff Brohm, who has been at his best as an underdog and struggled as a big favorite.
While the same can be said for Troy Taylor in the role as an underdog, the Cardinal head coach hasn’t been able to field a competitive roster for much of ACC play.
A BYE week can certainly rejuvenate the offense that desperately needs Ashton Daniels healthy, and the team may have some ability to generate quality drives if he is correct. Louisville’s defense is right at the national average in terms of EPA/Play this season.
There are plenty of questions ahead of this one that I’m not all that interested in betting on it.

Missouri vs. South Carolina Betting Notes

South Carolina is a few plays away from being in the College Football Playoff conversation, crazy enough.
The Gamecocks have been on a rollout of its BYE week, fresh off the destruction of a banged-up Vanderbilt team. The team returns home to face another banged-up squad in Missouri, who pulled off a miraculous win last week against Oklahoma in the final seconds.
If Drew Pyne is going to start again for Missouri in place of the injured Brady Cook (hand/ankle), then I’d be interested in taking the Missouri team total under at north of 14.5.
The Mizzou offense couldn’t get any traction against Oklahoma at home, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win the game in regulation.
Overall, the Missouri offense averaged less than three yards per play.
If Cook goes, I still don’t trust Missouri against this elite South Carolina defense that is top 15 in key stats like EPA/Play and yards per play allowed with a budding offense that is led by freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers.
This number is a Pyne-related point spread, so I’m inclined to lean toward a likely blowout.

Boise State vs. San Jose State Betting Notes

Can San Jose State find enough big plays to challenge the Boise State offense?
We have seen the Spartans put up points in bunches this season, including 52 points at Washington State earlier this season.
San Jose State has an elite wide receiver in Nick Nash who can go nuts in this one. The key will be for SJSU’s offensive line to hold up for quarterback Walker Eget.
Eget has 14 big-time throw to five turnover-worthy plays with a cannon for an arm, posting an aDOT of nearly 15 yards per toss.
Of course, San Jose State must deal with Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty, who is a big play waiting to happen.
While San Jose State’s defense looks impressive, top 35 in both EPA/Play and yards per play allowed, some of that is schedule-aided. The team has faced one top-50 offense on the season, Washington State, and allowed 54 points.
However, Boise State’s defense is very boom-or-bust as well, second in the nation in sacks but 84th in EPA/Play with bottom 20 marks in explosive rush and pass rate.
This game can be a back-and-forth one that is decided by turnovers, and San Jose State has been very havoc-minded this season, ranking third in the country in turnovers gained (22).
After playing a nearly even game with Nevada on the box score, can Boise State find itself in some trouble on the road against a high-ceiling offense?

Arizona State vs. Kansas State Betting Notes

Cam Skattebo is likely back after missing a game with a shoulder injury, which is massive ahead of this Big 12 title game elimination matchup.
Arizona State continues to be one of the great bets in college football this season, 7-2 against the number on the season, while Kansas State continues to be an overrated outfit in a crowded Big 12.
Skattebo’s return helps, but this is an Arizona State team that should be able to test a shaky Kansas State pass defense that is below average in coverage grading and outside the top 100 in pass rush grading, per Pro Football Focus.
Sam Leavitt continues to keep the ball out of harm's way, he has three turnover-worthy plays on the season, and if the team gets Skattebo back, he can be live for an upset against a Kansas State team that has been overrated for much of this season.
Further, don’t sleep on Avery Johnson, who continues to be shaky as a passer. The ASU defense is elite against the run, top 25 in EPA/Rush. If the team forces obvious passing situations for Johnson, this game can be tight throughout.
Johnson has nine big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays on the season but is a serious threat with his legs. The trio of Johnson, D.J. Giddens, and Dylan Edwards is a lot for the opposing defense to handle, but I do question if this team can get margin against a legitimate offense in Arizona State that ranks 25th in EPA/Play.
At over a touchdown, I’ll bet on Arizona State to continue to cash in for bettors and stay close with the Wildcats.

Oregon vs. Wisconsin Betting Notes

The Ducks have been lightly challenged since the Ohio State game, winning by an average margin of more than 26 points per game in the last four wins, and I don’t believe the Badgers have the firepower to keep up with the No. 1 team in the country. -
The Badgers are outside the top 90 in explosive play rate and are about the national average in success rate. The offensive line has been solid, but the group hasn’t been explosive enough to create excess scoring chances.
However, Oregon hasn’t shown a willingness to run up the score. The Ducks can put up big numbers, but the group isn’t hitting a ton of big plays. With injuries along the skill position group to Jordan James, who only had seven carries last week, No. 1 receiver Tez Johnson (who will be out for this one), and now depth piece Traeshon Holden after a first-half injury against Maryland, the Ducks have been more methodical in its approach on offense.
The team is set to play its eighth straight game and have a BYE next week, is the group going to be interested in hanging a big number on the Badgers, or will the team look to get a workmanlike win and get to the off-week?
The under is my preference in this one with Oregon eyeing on getting out of this game with as little attrition as possible and get to its long-awaited BYE week ahead of the season finale against Washington.
An alternate route could be to watch the first half and if Oregon gets up a few scores, take the second half under as the team may opt to rest more players sooner than usual.

Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Notes

The big news ahead of this one is that Nico Iamaleava is in concussion protocol, leaving the Vols quarterback’s availability in doubt for this one.
There is a pretty significant dropoff from Iamaleava to backup Gaston Moore as the team gears up for a road trip to Georgia, which is in need of a win after falling out of the College Football Playoff top 12 last week.
This matchup has suited Georgia quite nicely over the three years that Josh Heupel has been in Knoxville, holding the Vols to 17, 13, and 10 points.
However, this Tennessee defense is likely at its best and can give this Georgia offense fits.
Carson Beck continued to struggle in SEC play – but his receivers continued to do him no favors. Beck has not had a big-time throw since Week 7 with seven turnover-worthy plays.
The Tennessee pass rush isn’t as good as the Ole Miss one, but it’s pretty close, ranking top 15 in pass rush grade, per PFF. Beck has been awful under pressure all season, completing only 35% of his passes with three big-time throws to 10 turnover-worthy plays comprising about 23% of his dropbacks.
Even with Iamaleava in, I do fancy the under, but the entry point may be key for making a bet. For what it’s worth I bet under 48.5.
The Tennessee offense under Heupel hasn’t been able to find success in this matchup, and the team has been lacking a potent deep ball threat all season. The unit is 82nd in explosive pass rate.
I envision the team feeding Dylan Sampson and leaning on its defensive line to win the field position battle.
Meanwhile, Georgia is even worse this season at creating chunk gains, ranking outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate.
I think this game figures to be like the Ole Miss one as we continue to find a new bottom for the Georgia offense.

New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Betting Notes

Not much for me here, but I’m curious if we see head coach Mike Elko continue to experiment with the quarterback room between Marcell Reed and Conner Weigman.
In a projected blowout, this can be a good opportunity for the team to build on last week’s BYE and get a better feel for the offense as it heads into the home stretch.

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Betting Notes

Iowa State is off two losses, so while many will flock to the team getting on track, I see another difficult matchup and potential loss on the schedule for the ‘Clones.
Cincinnati profiles as a nice running dog in this one against an Iowa State defense that is outside the top 100 in yards per carry this season and doesn’t get pressure on the quarterback, which can lead to a better outing from Cincy’s quarterback Brendan Sorsby.
The Cyclones' pass rush is 120th according to Pro Football Focus, and when Sorsby isn’t under pressure, he has cooked this season. The Indiana transfer is completing more than 71% of his passes with a 15-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio when kept clean.
Iowa State may be able to score, Cincy’s secondary has been vulnerable to explosive passes, but I don’t believe this team is more than a touchdown better than the other.
Further, what is this spread if Cincinnati didn’t have two mind-boggling defensive scores against them last week at home against West Virginia? I’ll buy the dip on the Bearcats, who still need a win to reach bowl eligibility.

Washington State vs. New Mexico Betting Notes

The Cougars have been dynamic on offense with John Mateer leading the team in rushing in addition to anchoring a potent passing game, but the defense is terrible, last in Pro Football Focus’ tackling grade.
Enter New Mexico’s high-octane offense that is sixth in yards per play and is scoring nearly three points per drive.
Now, New Mexico’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed, outside the top 120 in key metrics like EPA/Play, EPA/Pass, and sacks, but with a total in the 70s, I don’t believe Washington State can do enough to get margin on the Lobos on the road.
Keep an eye on turnovers in this game. Wazzu is tied for 14th in the country with a plus-nine turnover margin. Meanwhile, New Mexico is tied for 120th with minus eight.
Despite only out-gaining Utah State at home by 87 yards, Washington State won by 21, potentially inflating its rating and setting up for a non-cover (and potential outright loss) against the Lobos on Saturday night.

Kansas vs. BYU Betting Notes

If you’ve made it this far, you are likely interested in the Cougars in its pursuit of an undefeated regular season.
BYU continues to be a small favorite or an underdog, in these Big 12 games despite its ability to win every game on its schedule. Credit is due to the Cougs, but this team remains a fade.
Kansas has arguably been the best team not named Colorado over the last month, and despite a 3-6 record, the team is ever so slightly behind 9-0 BYU in terms of net EPA/Play.
The Jayhawks have lost one game by more than a touchdown this season and are now starting to see the results, winning three out of four and its lone loss at Kansas State in the final minute.
Kansas should be able to find success on the ground to open up the vertical passing game. The combination of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. should jumpstart the KU offense against a BYU defense that is outside the top 90 in EPA/Rush.
Both quarterbacks have been up-and-down this season, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels has 18 big-time throws to 15 turnover-worthy plays while BYU’s Jake Retzlaff has both 12 BTT and 12 TWP, but the KU defense has been far more aggressive on defense, so a sudden change can happen for both teams.
The key in this one is which defense can pounce on poor decisions from the opposing quarterback as I believe both offenses can dictate the game and find success, giving me an overlean in the nightcap in Provo.
Kansas continues to be far better than its record, while BYU is no doubt worse, but it’s never easy to win at LaVell Stadium at night, meaning this one is likely going down to the wire for both teams yet again.