Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Notes, Analysis and Picks for Week 3

Sports Illustrated's Reed Wallach breaks down all of the key betting notes to know for College Football Week 3.

Reed Wallach | Sep 12, 2024

Sep 7, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) passes the ball during the first half against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

It's time for another week of college football.

While some teams have bye weeks ahead of the start of conference play, there is another loaded card of college football for you, starting on Thursday night and raging through the weekend. With 134 teams at the FBS level, its sometimes hard to keep tabs on each group. Luckily, I have notes, injury reports and betting information for you to get ready for the weekend.

Here is what I'm looking for ahead of Saturday's slate, including a handful of bets on each ranked teams games against FBS foes with updated news and betting analysis.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arizona vs. Kansas State Betting Notes

I love this set up for both offenses, making an early week wager on the over
From our game preview, the Kansas State defense may be up against it against the high flying Arizona passing offense that has arguably the best wide receiver in the country in Tetaiora McMillan.
Zona has Fifita and McMillan engineering an elite passing game that features little drop-off from last season and will get to feast on a K-State defense that allowed Tulane to average more than 10 yards pre-drop back and put up a 14% explosive play rate. Both numbers rank in the 93rd percentile in both metrics relative to games last season, per GameonPaper.
However, I’m interested to see if Kansas State lets Avery Johnson loose. I like his rushing yard prop over at 45.5 given his rushing abilities, but also his shaky play as a passer thus far. Johnson hasn’t had many designed runs through two games, but is averaging 22 passes per game and hasn’t passed for 200 yards yet.
Arizona ranks 110th in tackling, per Pro Football Focus, despite playing New Mexico and Northern Arizona. Against a bruising K-State offense, this game can be full of explosive plays.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin Betting Notes

Alabama was on the right side of a big fourth quarter to pad its scoreline against South Florida in what was a dismal effort from the Crimson Tide. The team won 42-16, but only out-gained South Florida by 84 yards in the win.
The team hits the road to face a Wisconsin team that may not be able to test a shaky Alabama secondary to date, but I’m not sure Tyler Van Dyke has the arm strength to take advantage.
The Miami transfer has completed only seven of 16 passes of more than 10 yards so far this season with more than two-thirds of his passes coming inside of 10 yards and behind the line of scrimmage. While against South Dakota and Western Michigan, I have my concerns.
The Alabama offensive line didn’t have stud tackle Kaydn Proctor available in either of its games, and the team allowed South Florida to generate 10 tackles for loss. Proctor’s availability is up in the air, and is impactful against a formidable Wisconsin defense that will try to get pressure on Jalen Milroe.
In the first true road game, I’ll be eyeing Milroe’s over rushing yards of 45.5 as the Crimson Tide offensive line continues to look shaky.

Arkansas State vs. Michigan Betting Notes

Michigan’s offense continues to struggle, could Arkansas State be the answer?
It’s possible that the team rotates in a third quarterback to the pocket passer Davis Warren and run-only option of Alex Orji, former Indiana quarterback Jack Tuttle.
Tuttle is questionable for this game after tearing part of his UCL last season and has the most experience to date. Can he be a way to unlock a Michigan offense that has been stuck in the mud thus far? The Wolverines are 111th in yards per play thus far.
I won’t be betting on the Wolverines to do much on offense, but a look at Arkansas State team total under against a still sturdy Michigan defense would be my preferred bet, if I were to make one. Arkansas State hasn’t looked all that formidable in games against Central Arkansas and Tulsa thus far, +59 in total yards despite the undefeated record.

Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Betting Notes

Oklahoma State was incredibly lucky to win last week against Arkansas, out-gained 648-385 in the overtime victory with a +2 turnover margin and a defensive touchdown.
The Pokes also out-gained South Dakota State by six yards in a 24-point home win.
The team hits the road to face Tulsa ahead of its Big 12 opener against conference favorite Utah. What type of showing will we see from Mike Gundy’s bunch?
Since 2020, Gundy is only 6-8 as a double digit favorite, and I’m not sure I can trust this version of Oklahoma State to win with margin on the road. Further, the team is going to be down its best defensive player, Collin Oliver.
The Tulsa defense is quite poor, but the offense has enough firepower to keep up with the Pokes and keep this scoreline respectable. Kirk Francis has taken over as starting quarterback and is leading a unit that is 23rd in EPA/Play through two weeks with budding star wide receiver Kamdyn Benjamin.
Oklahoma State could be in trouble if it continues its shaky play on defense, Tulsa at over 17 is a play that intrigues me.

LSU vs. South Carolina Betting Notes

South Carolina’s defense was the story in shutting down Kentucky, allowing only six points, but will face a far tougher test with a high powered passing offense in LSU.
I lean towards the Tigers having too much on offense with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leading the way to test a Gamecocks secondary that hasn’t been targeted all that much.
South Carolina’s offense is still among the worst in the SEC, using a pick-six to build up its point total last week against Kentucky in the 31-6 victory. South Carolina totaled only 252 yards last week and ranks 124th in both EPA/Play and yards per play so far this season.
LSU may be conservative early in its first true road game of the season, leading me to the first half under (as discussed below).

Boston College vs. Missouri Betting Notes

While Boston College scored a massive win at Florida State, how much stock can we put into that with the team being the same spread now on the road against a College Football Playoff contender in SEC foe Missouri?
The Tigers have far more firepower with Luther Burden at wide receiver anchoring this offense that can test a Boston College secondary that hasn’t been exposed to date.
Burden’s receiving yards prop is in the low 70’s, which is my favorite way to target this vulnerable BC secondary that was outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass last season and won’t be able to stack the box like it did against Florida State.

Ball State vs. Miami Betting Notes

This is a big point spread so I won’t belabor the point, but this is a Ball State offense that allowed nine tackles for loss against FCS foe Missouri State in its opener last Saturday, which can spell bad news against Miami.
The Hurricanes will look to pad its stats for Cam Ward under center, who has passed for over 300 yards and has had at least three passing touchdowns in each game. That seems to be a solid bar for him to get to again.

Oregon vs. Oregon State Betting Notes

So, Oregon? What gives?
That's two suspect performances from the Ducks, who needed two special teams touchdowns and a last second field goal to beat Boise State.
Oregon continues to work through injuries on the offensive line that may be limiting the upside of the roster, but the unit remains pretty efficient with the ball, just not explosive.
The Ducks have allowed seven sacks and have the third lowest explosive rush rate, but the unit is 35th in EPA/Pass as the team looks to find its stride against in-state rival Oregon State.
I’ll be looking for the Oregon offense to round into form, but the defense has looked the part thus far. While the team allowed chunk plays to arguably the best running back in the country Ashton Jeanty, the pass rush has been elite, 29th in success rate thus far.
Against a new-look Oregon State team that has not faced any competition just yet, this can be a good spot for the Ducks to get right, even on the road.
I make this game north of -17, but won’t be betting it as I would rather see the Ducks show it on the field and rid itself of some early season blues.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Betting Notes

The Irish were on the wrong side of likely the biggest upset of the college football season, losing at home to Northern Illinois as four touchdown favorites.
Now, all eyes are on Riley Leonard’s non-throwing shoulder after a reported injury that can limit (or keep him out) of this game at Purdue.
However, the Irish defense should be to impose its will on a subpar Boilermakers offense.
Purdue averaged 17 points per game last season when playing teams inside the top 50 in yards per play, an eight game sample, scoring more than 20 just once, against Illinois.
If Leonard is ruled in, I’ll likely be on the under at above 45 as I think this will lead to a more conservative, run-first attack from the Irish.

Tulane vs. Oklahoma Betting Notes

As noted below, I think OU is in some trouble.
Tulane racked up five tackles for loss against the Wildcats, and I’m cautiously optimistic that the team can get pressure against an OU offensive line that has allowed 11 TFL’s in two games already this season against worse defenses.
OU has injuries to a group of pass catchers, including stud Deion Burks, who may be on track to play, but did leave the Houston game with an injury. Further, the team hasn't had starter Nic Anderson yet and lost fellow starter Jalill Farooq to a foot injury. There's also gang injuries on the offensive line.
The Sooners can’t be trusted to win by two scores with shaky offensive line play and diminishing skill position players.
Further, with former Tulane coach and now Houston coach Willie Fritz seemingly finding answers to the Sooners offense, the Cougars out-gained OU 341-250, can the Green Wave pounce on it and finish its former coach's job?

Tulane is a big underdog vs. No. 15 Oklahoma in CFB Week 3, but @ReedWallach LOVES the Green Wave catching two touchdowns even though the game is in Norman. pic.twitter.com/OLQOJEN21I
— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) September 11, 2024

Utah vs. Utah State Betting Notes

Cam Rising is likely out for this game due to a laceration on his hand and a key matchup against Oklahoma State on the road.
The Utes will presumably turn to Isaac Wilson, who played the second half for the Utes last week against Baylor.
The team kept it super conservative with Wilson in the game as the team sat on its 23-0 lead to win 23-12. Wilson completed four of his nine passes for 19 yards.
Utah State got blanked by USC, 41-0, on the road, and will likely be starting former Utes starter from last season Bryson Barnes. However, the Aggies offense is outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass and will likely struggle against an elite Utes defense.
The total plummeted on the news that Rising is likely to miss the game, and rightfully so, but it can go even further with Utah State’s change in pace. The Aggies went from fifth in seconds per play this season to 113th through two games this season.

Ole Miss vs. Wake Forest Betting Notes

Ole Miss continues to dispose of opponents, running up the score in hopes of building up Jaxson Dart’s Heisman Trophy campaign.
Dart is up to 795 yards and six touchdowns while completing 87% of his passes to start the season and now gets to face a Wake Forest team that just allowed 31 points to Virginia at home.
While the Rebels look the part, the Wake Forest offense seems to be the right system for Boise State and Louisiana Tech transfer Hank Bachmeier.
Bachmeier will face a tougher test in Ole Miss’ defense, but he is fresh off 403 passing yards on 42 pass attempts for the Demon Deacons slow-mesh offense.
Further, Wake Forest’s offense is moving fast, ranking inside the top 20 in seconds per play.
With Ole Miss’ desire to run up the score, I’ll count on the Demon Deacons to do its part to score, even if its extended garbage time, and for the game to go over.

UTSA vs. Texas Betting Notes

Will Texas lay the hammer on UTSA off its Michigan win and SEC play on the horizon?
The Longhorns shaky running back depth can be tested further with Jaydon Blue suffering a minor injury against Michigan, but with the depth of the Longhorns so far superior to the Roadrunners it may not matter.
No interest for me here, but the Longhorns may let backup quarterback Arch Manning toss the pigskin around and cover the five touchdown spread.
UTSA was boat raced by Texas State on the road 49-10, and it could’ve been much worse if the Bobcats didn’t take their foot off the pedal.

Georgia vs. Kentucky Betting Notes

Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff gets to face his former team, but it may not go as he hopes in his head. The UGA transfer completed only three-of-10 passes before getting pulled in the second half in the 31-6 home loss to South Carolina.
Georgia beat Kentucky soundly in Athens, 51-14, last season, and the offense seems to have not missed a beat while the Wildcats offense seems to be in similarly dire conditions.
The Bulldogs offense is 15th in yards per play, 12th in EPA/Play and is averaging more than six yards per carry, 15th in the country.
Further, the defense stifled a mediocre Clemson offense to three points, and this Kentucky team appears to be far worse on O. Kentucky team total under is my preferred method to take with the point spread shifting all the way out to over 24 points.

Kent State vs. Tennessee Betting Notes

We mentioned in last week’s column about the emergence of Nico Iamlaeava and the Vols offense, but how about the defense that throttled NC State on a neutral field en route to a 51-10 win.
Tennessee’s fast-paced offense has punted twice this season, and the team should have little issue against Kent State, who allowed 55 points to Pitt and lost outright at home to St. Francis (PA), an FCS school.
The Vols can name its number and should have little issue winning by more than 50 points as they continue to build up their quarterback’s Heisman Trophy candidacy.