Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 4 Picks for Every Game

The Road to 272 Bets marches on as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bets for the Week 4 slate.

The Road to 272 Bets marches on as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bets for Week 4. /

The first three weeks have been one of the most unpredictable and shocking beginning to an NFL season in my life as a fan of the sport. If you've been in any Survivor Pool, you know exactly what I'm talking about with only a small percentage of people left having picked a winner in each of the first three weeks.

Not only are underdogs covering the spread at a high rate, but they're winning games outright, upsetting the biggest favorites every week. As a result, it's been a rough couple of weeks on the Road to 272 Bets. After a 7-9 (-2.63 units) finish in Week 3, we sit at 22-25-1 (-3.38 units) heading into Week 4. it's a bit of adversity to start the 2024 campaign, but nothing we can't bounce back from with one strong week.

That's exactly what I'm aiming to do in Week 4, the final week before teams start going on BYE.

I have my picks locked in for all 16 games this week, including the must-watch Sunday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. If you want to listen to the audio version of this, including some more in-depth analysis, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. The video version is posted below.

As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 4 game.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets for Every Game

Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction

The Cowboys have been one of the more baffling teams so far this season. Not only are they 1-2 with losses to the Saints and Ravens, but their metrics haven't been good either. Specifically, it's been their defense that has let them down. They've allowed 6.0 yards per play through the first three weeks, the fifth most in the NFL.

It's hard for me to trust the Cowboys' defense when it comes to covering this spread but I also don't want to bet against the Dallas offense, which has a chance to torch the Giants on Thursday night. My solution to that problem is to sit back and root for points in this NFC East showdown.

Outside of a bad Week 1 performance, the Giants' have shown the ability to move the ball at times too, especially when they decide to feed Malik Nabers like they did last week against the Browns. Unless the Cowboys' defense shows something they haven't in their first three weeks, New York's offense will be able to score some points and contribute the OVER.

Pick: OVER 44 (-110)

Broncos vs. Jets Prediction

The Broncos may end up being the team I believe in all season no matter how often they lost and their Week 3 win against the Buccaneers has only emboldened me.

My faith in them comes down to their defense, which ranks second in the NFL right now in opponent yards per play, giving up only 4.5 yards per snap. They're also third in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing just 5.1 yards per throw, which will be huge going against an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. Add in a pass rush that has recorded a sack on 12.36% of opponent dropbacks and we have a recipe for a close game between these two AFC squads.

I think a touchdown spread is a bit too aggressive in this one. I'll take the points.

Pick: Broncos +7 (-105)

Bengals vs. Panthers Prediction

The Panthers are still an unknown with Andy Dalton at quarterback. They looked fantastic against the Raiders last week with the Red Rifle at the helm, but whether or not that was a blip in the radar or a true indication of the long-term potential of this offense is yet to be seen.

What I am confident in is that both defenses in this game are some of the worst in the NFL. The Bengals just allowed the Commanders to gain 6.2 yards per play against them including 9.9 yards per pass attempt. The Carolina defense is also in the bottom 10 in almost every single metric and their secondary has allowed 7.2 yards per throw, which ranks 26th in the NFL.

You can sell me on Dalton reinvigorating the Panthers' offense, but I'm not ready to buy in on their defense. A similar thing can be said about the Bengals who may be all offense, no defense this season.

I'll sit back and root for points in this one.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-110)

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction

Something may have clicked for the Eagles last week. Their defense was atrocious in the first two weeks of the season but was one of the most dominant units across the league in Week 3. With that in mind, the Buccaneers defense didn't look any better last week and they're a unit that not enough people are talking about how bad they are.

Tampa Bay has given up 5.5 yards per play, but more importantly, 4.9 yards per rush attempt. Now they have to defend one of the better running teams in the NFL in the Eagles, who have averaged 5.0 yards per carry this season. Stopping the run has also been a weak point for Philadelphia, but the Bucs lack the ability to capitalize on that, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry-on the year, which is a full yard less than the Eagles.

The tough Falcons loss two weeks ago may have caused a dip in the market's opinion of the Eagles. Now could be the last time to capitalize on that. If they win and cover against Tampa Bay this weekend, the market will start evaluating this team like they were before the season began.

Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-110)

Rams vs. Bears Prediction

Even though the Rams were able to upset the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3, I'm not ready to get back to betting on them. We can't dismiss the amount of injuries this team has been dealing with. Cooper Kupp, Jonah Jackson, John Johnson, Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Joe Noteboom, and Darious Williams are just some of the players who will still be sidelined this week.

On top of the injuries, consider the fact the Rams' defense has been atrocious this season, allowing 6.8 yards per play, the worst mark in the league through the first three weeks.

There's no denying the Bears have had their fair share of problems in the early part of the season, but if there's any defense that Caleb Williams can have a strong performance against, it's the Rams. Chicago's defense alone should be able to keep them in this game.

Pick: Bears -3 (-108)

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction

The Falcons may be 1-2, but they've looked impressive the past two weeks against the Eagles and Chiefs. In fact, despite the tough schedule, they're seventh in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.8, 0.2 yards better than the Saints who have had the benefit of playing the Panthers in Week 1.

The Saints' defense hasn't been as good as some think, ranking just 18th in opponent yards per play while allowing the Eagles to average 6.9 yards per snap.

Before the season began, the market had the Falcons pegged as the superior team, yet based on the line for this Week 4 game, the Saints would be a slight favorite on a neutral field. Not enough has happened this season to convince me we should start looking at New Orleans as the better team.

Pick: Falcons -1.5 (-110)

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction

The Jaguars could not be lower without there being serious injuries so I have no choice but to buy low on this team and bet on them for the third straight game. Their results were disastrous the first two weeks but they didn't play as poorly as the final score indicated. The first time people saw them play was on Monday Night Football against the Bills where they DID play as bad as their record, and now the market is treating them like a bottom-five team in the league.

The Houston Texans haven't been able to win with margin at all this year and are coming off a bad loss to the Vikings. They're also outside the top 10 in most metrics, including Net Yards per Play where they rank 12th.

It's an ugly bet to make after how they looked against Buffalo, but this line is out of hand. Jacksonville with the points is the play.

Pick: Jaguars +6.5 (-110)

Vikings vs. Packers Prediction

I've seen enough from the Vikings to be convinced they are a legitimately good football team. Not only are they 3-0 with wins over the likes of the 49ers and Texans, but their metrics prove the wins haven't been flukes. Heading into Week 4, they rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.3.

We haven't received word yet about whether Jordan Love is starting for the Packers. Based on the current spread, we can assume he likely will. If if it's announced Malik Willis will be getting the start, we'll likely have a valuable ticket at +3.

Even if Love does start, I don't know how much confidence I'd have in a quarterback in his first start after a knee injury. I'll take the points in this NFC North battle.

Pick: Vikings +3 (-118)

Steelers vs. Colts Prediction

I'm shocked the total for this game is still in the 40s. The Steelers' defense has established itself as one of the best in the NFL, ranking third in opponent yards per play and second in opponent points per play. Even more importantly when it comes to a low-scoring game, the Steelers lead the NFL in red zone defense, keeping opponents from scoring a touchdown on just 16.67% of red zone trips against them.

I'm still not convinced by their offense, which is 28th in yards per play at 4.6. That, paired with the poor play by Anthony Richardson to start the season, leads me to think this is going to be a low-scoring affair. I'll take the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 40 (-110)

Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction

The 49ers are riddled with injuries, especially offensively. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle will miss Week 4 and now Brock Purdy is day-to-day with a back injury. If we bet the Patriots now and Purdy is ruled out, you're going to be happy you're holding the +10 ticket.

It's not just injuries that make me lean toward taking the Patriots with the points. The San Francisco defense has been bad this season, there's no other way to describe it. They're allowing 6.1 yards per play through the first three weeks, the third-worst mark in the NFL. They're also 30th in opponent third down conversation percentage and 31st in red zone defense. This unit was supposed to be better under Nick Sorensen, but so far they've been worse than in 2023.

We may need to stop evaluating this 49ers team like they're the same one that dominated the NFC en route to the Super Bowl last year.

Pick: Patriots +10 (-105)

Commanders vs. Cardinals Prediction

The line was at Cardinals -5.5 before Monday Night Football. Did the Commanders win against the Bengals convince you they are now two points better than you thought they were before kickoff? I certainly don't.

The Commanders have a ton of problems defensively. They allowed the Bengals to average 7.3 yards per play against them and now they're 31st in the NFL in that stat. For them to win and cover in games against teams as strong offensively as the likes of the Bengals and Cardinals, they're going to need Jayden Daniels to continue to have A+ games like he had on Monday night, a tall ask for a rookie quarterback.

We should also take note of how the Cardinals have kept teams to 3.9 yards per carry this season. Given the Commanders do their best work when running the football, that could cause an issue for them in this game.

I'll take Arizona to win and cover on Sunday.

Pick: Cardinals -3.5 (-108)

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction

I generally don't think the Chiefs have played well enough this season for me to lay eight points on them in many matchups, but the already shallow Chargers' roster is going to be even more thin this week. Both their starting tackles, including their top draft pick Joe Alt, are going to miss this week and they may also be without Justin Herbert.

Ideally, I'd wait to find out Herbert's status before betting this game, but the rules of the "Road to 272 Bets" state I must place all my bets by Tuesday morning. Therefore, I'm backing the Chiefs who have a lot less uncertainty than the Chargers heading into this week. Let's hope they hit their stride against their AFC West rival.

Pick: Chiefs -8 (-110)

Browns vs. Raiders Prediction

I will no longer be betting on the Cleveland Browns while Deshaun Watson remains their starting quarterback. He has been the worst QB in the NFL this season by a long shot, and to make matters worse Cleveland's offensive line continues to get more injured with their all-pro guard, Wyatt Teller, now landing on IR.

Cleveland is averaging only 3.8 yards per play and Watson has been sacked on 12.12% of his dropbacks. Maxx Crosby and company could have a field day against the Browns' offensive line.

I'd be willing to consider wagering on the Browns if their defense was as dominant as it was last season, but they've been average at best in 2024 and allowed the Giants to move the ball against them with ease last week.

I'll take the Raiders at home.

Pick: Raiders +1.5 (-118)

Bills vs. Ravens Prediction

It's time to sell high on the Bills. They have got off to an unbelievably strong start to the season, but I believe we're going to see some regression from this team in the coming weeks. A road game against the Ravens could be the time for exactly that to happen.

Despite being 1-2, the Ravens rank fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play and their offense is averaging a blistering 6.6 yards per play, the best mark in the NFL. More important than the Ravens' offense is their defense, specifically their ability to stop the run.

The Ravens have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, the fewest in the NFL by 0.7 yards per rush. That's going to be a tough challenge for a Bills team that has embraced the run this season, running at a top five rate amongst all teams.

I'll take the Ravens in this must-watch Sunday Night Football showdown.

Pick: Ravens -1 (-110)

Titans vs. Dolphins Prediction

The only good unit in this game is the Titans' defense, therefore I'm betting on Tennessee. Despite a bad performance against the Packers last week, the Titans' defense has largely been strong to start the season and is going to cause the Dolphins' offense a lot of issues with Skylar Thompson at quarterback.

The most explosive offense in football isn't so explosive without Tua. They averaged just 3.7 yards per play against the Seahawks last week, the third lowest in the NFL. Mike McDaniel has some reevaluating to do and until this team proves they can be competitive in 2024, I'm going to fade them as much as possible.

Tennessee will be alright if they stop turning the ball over. 2.7 giveaways per game is simply unacceptable.

Pick: Titans -1.5 (+100)

Seahawks vs. Lions Prediction

It has to be said the Seahawks have played some of the worst offenses in the NFL through the first three weeks in the Broncos, Patriots, and Tua-less Dolphins, but their defense has been unbelievable in those games. Mike Macdonald, the former defensive coordinator for the Ravens, may be in the process of turning this Seahawks team into a defensive juggernaut.

They lead the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.9) while also ranking inside the top five in third-down defense, red zone defense, and opponent points per play. Meanwhile, their offense has been steady, averaging 5.5 yards per play, only 0.2 yards per play fewer than the Lions.

Seattle's defensive advantage is enough for me to take the points with the Seahawks in Detroit.

Pick: Seahawks +4.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!