Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 5 Picks for Every Game

The Road to 272 Bets marches on as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bets for the Week 5 slate.

NFL Week 5. /

After a couple of losing weeks in a row, we took a step in the right direction in Week 4 of the Road to 272 Bets, going 9-7 (+1.21 units), which brings our season-to-date record to 31-32-1 (-2.17 units).

Betting on every single NFL game isn't for the faint of heart. We have to remember this is a marathon not a sprint, so moving in the right direction is always a positive. We'll aim for a second straight winning performance in Week 5.

With this being the start of teams going on BYE, we have just 14 games to watch and bet on this week, but I have my play for all of them locked in. If you want to listen to the audio version of this, including some more in-depth analysis, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. The video version is posted below.

As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 5 game.

Teams on a BYE in Week 5:

• Lions
• Chargers
• Eagles
• Titans

NFL Week 5 Best Bets for Every Game

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction

The Falcons have been a peculiar team this season. They're third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.9 but rank in the bottom half of the NFL in almost every single advanced metric like EPA/Play, success rate, and DVOA. What that tells me is they're great at moving the ball and preventing the other team from doing so, but they fail to step up in key plays. That's supported by the fact that they offensively rank 29th in third down conversion rate and 28th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage.

There's little to take away from the Buccaneers metrics, who rank around average in just about every statistic you can find, simple or advanced. What they don't do well is run the ball or stop the run, an area the Falcons can take advantage of.

At the end of the day, the Falcons are only 1.5-point home favorites despite being largely looked at as the better team before the season began. I'm going to try to stick to that evaluation and trust them as the better team in this NFC South primetime matchup.

Pick: Falcons -1.5 (-110)

Jets vs. Vikings Prediction

I'm going to take the points with the Jets in this London showdown. New York's defense could prove to be an issue for Sam Darnold. To start, the Jets' defense is second in the NFL in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 11.48% of their dropbacks. That's bad news for Darnold, who has been sacked on 9.4% of his dropbacks, the sixth most amongst all quarterbacks.

On top of that, the Jets' defense is third in the NFL in opponent yards per play and second in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing just 4.7 yards per throw. The Vikings would be smart to rely on Aaron Jones and their run game in this international affair.

The Jets' offense still leaves a lot to be desired, but Rodgers should only get better as the season goes on and he knocks the rust off from missing the entire 2023 season.

I wouldn't say the Jets should be favored in this game, but on a neutral field, I'll take the points with the underdogs.

Pick: Jets +2.5 (-105)

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction

The Dolphins were -1.5-point favorites on the lookahead line but it moved 2.5 points in favor of the Patriots after Miami's abysmal performance on Monday night against the Titans. I'm not going to overreact to that performance and I will trust Snoop Huntley more in his second week with this team than I did before their game against a stout Tennessee defense.

At the end of the day, the Dolphins have the far superior roster in terms of skill. Even if they don't have a competent quarterback, let's not dismiss the other weapons they have on offense, something the Patriots have an extreme lack of.

I'm buying low on the Dolphins after a poor few weeks without Tua Tagovailoa.

Pick: Dolphins +1 (-110)

Panthers vs. Bears Prediction

I was on the Bears to win and cover against the Rams last week, but to be honest, I was lucky to get that win. The Bears offense continues to be horrific and if they can't get the ball moving against a bottom three defense in the Rams, I don't have faith in them moving the ball against anyone in the NFL. Their offense comes into Week 5 ranking 31st in yards per play (3.9), 26th in EPA/Play (-0.131), and 26th in Success Rate (39.8%).

Meanwhile, the Panthers have looked like a different team under Dalton and while their defense is still a bottom 10 unit in the league, I still have more faith in their offense than that of the Bears. I can envision the Bears winning this game, but I'm not prepared to lay four points on them.

Pick: Panthers +4 (-110)

Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction

The start of the Jaguars' season has been a disaster, still looking for their first win. You might be wondering why an 0-4 team is favored by almost a field goal against a team that's 2-2, fresh off a huge victory against a formerly undefeated Steelers team.

The answer, in my opinion, is the Jaguars are a lot better than their record indicates. Their losses to the Dolphins, Browns, and Texans could have easily been wins if not for late-game mistakes. If they even won two of those, would you look at them differently as a 2-2 team than you do right now?

The biggest thing working in the Jaguars' favor this week is their run defense which has kept teams to just 3.9 yards per carry, the seventh best mark in the NFL. The key to beating the Colts is stopping the run so if the Jaguars can do exactly that, they're going to be in a good position to win and cover in this AFC South matchup.

Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-114)

Bills vs. Texans Prediction

Some of the metrics surrounding the Texans are deceiving heading into this week. They're 3-1 on the season, but they haven't exactly had a strong schedule thus far with wins against the Colts, Bears, and Jaguars. Their only game against a good team, the Vikings, ended in a blowout loss for the Texans.

The glaring weakness for the Texans this week is their run defense. They have allowed 4.7 yards per carry through the first four weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Bills' offense is built to run the football and when they have success on the ground, they're in a great spot to win. The Ravens were able to stop the run and put the Bills in a negative game split, which led to a loss for Buffalo.

The Texans have a great young roster, but I still think they need some more time to develop to truly be considered one of the elite teams in the AFC. I'll back the bills in this one to bounce back with a win.

Pick: Bills +102

Ravens vs. Bengals Prediction

The Bengals' offense has caught fire, but I still have plenty of issues with their defense. They're 26th in the NFL in opponent points per game, allowing 26.0 per contest, and their secondary is allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt. They're also 22nd in third down defense and 19th in red zone defense, which is a bad sign considering they've played offenses like the Patriots and Panthers.

Meanwhile, the Ravens offense is firing on all cylinders. They lead the NFL in yards per play, averaging 6.8 yards per snap, 0.4 more yards than the next best team. The Ravens have also covered the spread against the Bengals in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.

I'm surprised the Ravens aren't bigger than a field goal favorite. I'll lay the points with Baltimore on the road.

Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-110)

Browns vs. Commanders Prediction

It may be time to sell high on the Commanders this week. They've been extremely impressive to start the season, but they still rank 20th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.1 and their defense continues to be one of the worst units in football. Their defense allowed 6.2 yards per play, with only the Rams (6.4) ranking worse.

If there's a defense that the Browns offense can bounce back against, it's Washington's. It's also going to give them a significant boost if Nick Chubb can return to the lineup on Sunday. If Cleveland can rely on a strong run game, it's going to improve the entire lineup, including the play of Watson.

It's also worth noting the Browns' secondary is by far the best secondary that Jayden Daniels will have faced so far this young season. Everyone is talking about Daniels' high completion percentage, but now he faces a Browns team that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 58.58% of passes.

I'm taking the points with the Browns.

Pick: Browns +3 (-110)

Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction

There are rightfully a lot of questions surrounding the Broncos' offense, but the Raiders' offense hasn't been much better. They're 27th and 29th in EPA per play 20th and 29th in yards per play. Where there is a big discrepancy in this match-up is defensive.

We need to start treating the Broncos as an elite defensive unit. They're allowing the fewest yards per play at 4.2 while also ranking fourth in opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Gardner Minshew and the Raiders' offense is going to have a long day, especially if Davante Adams doesn't return to the lineup.

I'll lay the points with the Broncos at home.

Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-115)

Cardinals vs. 49ers Prediction

You can take what I wrote about the Broncos above, flip it and apply it to the Cardinals. Yes, their defense is horrific and ranks in the bottom five in just about every metric you want to look at, but I still think their offense is one of the better units in the league, even though they've stumbled the past two weeks.

It's also worth noting the 49ers defense hasn't been as dominant as we expected them to be heading into this season. For example, they're just 19th in opponent yards per play, allowing 5.4 yards per snap. They're also just 18th in opponent Success Rate and 22nd in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.0 yards per throw.

If the 49ers had better defensive metrics through the first four weeks of the season, I'd lay the points with them, but they haven't shown me enough to feel confident in them to cover a touchdown spread against an offense as strong as Arizona's.

Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (-110)

Giants vs. Seahawks Prediction

The Lions showed the NFL world that the Seahawks' defensive metrics through the first three weeks may have been more due to their lack of competition more than Mike Macdonald all of a sudden turning them into an elite unit. Still, the Seahawks have shut down inferior opponents already this season and I think we have another case of that in Week 5 when they face the Giants.

The Giants enter this week ranking 25th in Net Yards per Play (-0.6) as well as near the bottom of the league in advanced metrics on both sides of the ball. Going on the road in Seattle to take on a team with a great defense as well as an explosive offense is a recipe for disaster for the G-Men.

I'll lay the points with Seattle in a great bounceback spot for the Seahawks.

Pick: Seahawks -5.5 (-120)

Packers vs. Rams Prediction

The Rams have made the most out of a bad situation so far this season. They've had the worst injury luck with injuries out of every team in the NFL but have managed to stay competitive in most games. Unfortunately, I think the floodgates are going to be opened this weekend when the Packers come to town.

Green Bay, despite missing Jordan Love for two of their four games, ranks sixth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.8) heading into this week. Now they get to take on a Rams team that is injured offensively and abysmal defensively. The Rams defense is last in opponent yards per play (6.4), 31st in opponent EPA/Play, and 30th in opponent Success Rate.

The Packers' offense is going to eat this Los Angeles defense up.

Pick: Packers -3.5 (-105)

Cowboys vs. Steelers Prediction

The Dallas Cowboys are going to have a coming-out party sooner or later and it could be on Sunday night. Their biggest weakness is their inability to run the football effectively or stop the run on defense. Luckily for them, the Steelers can't run the football offensively and can be had through the air defensively.

That adds up to the Cowboys having a great stylistic matchup in this interconference showdown.

While Justin Fields and the Pittsburgh offensive has been effective, it's been tough to totally trust them. They're 21st in yards per play (4.9), 20th in EPA/Play, and 21st in Success Rate. We should also keep in mind they haven't exactly had a tough start to their schedule with their toughest games coming against a Falcons team in Kirk Cousins' first start with the team and a Chargers team who didn't have Justin Herbert for the majority of the game.

It's time to sell your stock on the Steelers and take the Cowboys as underdogs on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Cowboys +120

Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction

As good as the Chiefs are, it's hard to trust them to cover the spread. In fact, they're just 14-14-2 when set as the betting favorite in their last 30 regular season games. This season is no different considering they're 16h in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.1) and Patrick Mahomes ranks just 13th in EPA + CPOE. Now, add in the fact that Rashee Rice is likely out for the season and they're a team that's hanging on by a thread.

The Saints may have lost two straight games, but they've still been a better team by almost every single metric when compared to the Chiefs. Their offense ranks fifth in the league in EPA/Play through the first four weeks and I think they'll be able to do enough to keep this game within range.

The Chiefs' uncanny ability to snag victory from the jaws of defeat one way or another is keeping me from taking the Saints on the moneyline, but I'll absolutely bet on New Orleans to cover this 5.5-point spread.

Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!