Rory McIlroy vs. Collin Morikawa: Matchup Bets for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Collin Morikawa is in a great spot to finish ahead of the world No. 3 this week at the signature event.
Rory McIlroy is favored to beat Collin Morikawa in a head-to-head matchup at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Rory McIlroy is favored to beat Collin Morikawa in a head-to-head matchup at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. / Rob Schumacher-Imagn Images

This year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am promises to be a fun event as most of the best golfers the PGA Tour has to offer will tee it up at the iconic course. With no football to distract us this week, we can dive in and place a few bets.

You can check out my best picks for this week’s event in my betting preview, but in this article, I’m going to take a look at a few matchup bets I like. These wagers are as straightforward as they come. They’re a bet on one golfer to finish with a better tournament score than the golfer they’re paired with for the wager.

I have three matchup bets locked in, including one on an intriguing head-to-head between Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa.

Pebble Beach Head-to-Head Bets

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Collin Morikawa (-105) vs. Rory McIlroy
  • Patrick Cantlay (+100) vs. Justin Thomas
  • Jason Day (-110) vs. Sam Burns

Rory McIlroy vs. Collin Morikawa Prediction

If you read my betting preview then you know Morikawa is my pick to win this week’s event, but if you want to be a bit more conservative in backing the two-time major champion or if you want to double-dip on him like I am, I think this is a great spot for him in a matchup bet.

McIlroy is a generational driver of the golf ball, but that’s not an area that golfers can completely use to their advantage at Pebble Beach. Instead, a strong iron game has what's the most important and this has been an area he has struggled in at times lately. He gained just +0.27 true strokes with his approach play at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic earlier this month and even lost strokes with his irons at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in November.

His T66 finish here last year and a missed cut in 2018 proves this isn’t the best course fit for the Northern Irishman. Meanwhile, Morikawa should thrive at this ball striker’s paradise. His precision with his irons and improved short game is enough for me to back him at -105 against the No. 3-ranked golfer in the world.

Pick: Morikawa -105

Justin Thomas vs. Patrick Cantlay Prediction

I don't think there’s a huge edge to be had here, but I do like Patrick Cantlay at even money over Justin Thomas. He has quietly put together a string of consistently strong golf, not finishing outside the top 20 since finishing T25 at last year’s British Open. He also has a strong history at Pebble Beach, finishing T11, T3, T4, and T11 in his last four starts at this event.

While I do think JT is in for a bounce-back season, his lack of consistency on the greens gives me cause for concern in a week where hitting greens and sinking putts is the recipe for success.

Pick: Cantlay +100

Jason Day vs. Sam Burns Prediction

Few golfers, if any, have had the consistent success at Pebble Beach over the past decade that Jason Day has had. Since 2015, he has finished outside the top 11 just once. In that time frame, he has posted a top-five finish five times including finishing just outside the top five last year when he posted a T6 result.

Sometimes you just have to bet on a guy who has proven he knows how to succeed at a specific course and there’s nothing I see in Sam Burns’s profile to make me think he can best Day this week. Burns is coming off a completely average T29 finish at the American Express.

Pick: Jason Day -110


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!


Published
Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.