Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler Memorial Tournament Matchup Betting Pick

Iain MacMillan | Jun 5, 2024

PGA Tour players Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy greet each other as Jon Rahm looks on as they all prepare to tee off at the tenth hole during the first round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn., on Thursday, August 10, 2023. / Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA

We're less than 24 hours away from the opening tee shot at the 2024 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club.

If you want to bet on the event, I broke down everything you need to know to do so, including my best bets, in my full betting preview here. In this article, we're going to dive a little bit deeper into the two best golfers teeing it up this week, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

In case you didn't know, there are a plethora of ways you can bet on a PGA Tour event. One of those is betting on which of two golfers will finish higher on the leaderboard. The best of those matchups bets this week pits Scheffler against McIlroy.

Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler -200
• Rory McIlroy +160

Scheffler enters the Memorial Tournament as the -200 favorite to finish with a lower score than McIlroy. If you translate those odds to implied probability, he has a 66.67% chance of beating McIlroy.

Are those odds fair?

In my opinion, they are. In fact, there could be some betting value on Scheffler in this matchup. I have his odds of beating McIlroy closer to 70%. We have to remember Scheffler has finished worse than T10 just once in 2024, in what was a T17 finishing at The American Express in January.

Now, he returns to a course that he's experienced some success at the past few seasons. Despite not yet winning, he finished third here in both 2023 and 2021. McIlroy, on the other hand, has never finished inside the top three at this event, with his best finish being a T4 back in 2016.

While there's no debating how good of a season McIlroy is having, Scheffler has just been on a different level. The No. 1-ranked golfer in the world is gaining +2.842 total strokes on the field per round this season while the Northern Irishman is gaining +1.723. That's a difference of +1.119 strokes per round in favor of Scheffler.

To put that in perspective, the difference between Scheffler and McIlroy is the same as the difference between McIlroy and Ben Silverman, who ranks 42nd on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained per round this season.

Would you bet on McIlroy at -200 against Silverman this tournament? If so, then you should feel just as comfortable betting -200 odds on Scheffler against McIlroy.

Pick: Scheffler -200

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!