Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Mariners Best Bet on Saturday)

Reed Wallach | Jul 20, 2024

Jul 13, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; George Kirby #68 of the Seattle Mariners delivers to the plate in the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The stretch run of the Major League Baseball season is in full swing, and heated races continue.

The Mariners lead in the AL West has shrunk to one after losing to the Astros on Friday, can George Kirby stop the bleeding on Saturday? Here's our betting preview for that high-leverage matchup as well as the entire big league card!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+130)

The Rays have a strong lineup to match up against Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes, ranking 10th in OPS against southpaws. 

Further, Rays second-year pro-Taj Bradley should continue his upward trajectory behind a devastating offspeed pitch that ranks 98th in pitching run value, striking out more than 30% of batters. 

The Yankees lineup remains shallow, with limited viable options outside of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and I like Bradley to navigate it and for Tampa Bay to score a win as small underdogs. 

Cardinals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-155)

I’ll fade Kyle Gibson, who has an xERA far higher than his actual ERA, a near-5.00 xERA outweighed his average 4.16 mark. 

Gibson has been an elite groundball pitcher, ranking in the 75th percentile, but with the power of the Braves lineup in a hitter-friendly Truist Park where the team is 29-17 on the year, I like the Atlanta offense to show out in its first game since the All-Star break. 

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-135)

Blue Jays’ starter Yusei Kikuchi has put together a decent season for the Blue Jays, and it should be even better with an xERA (4.07) far lower than his actual ERA (4.42). 

He has been a victim of hard contact, ranking in the ninth percentile, but that’s not as much of a problem against the limited Tigers lineup that is 23rd in OPS this season. 

I’ll trust Toronto at home as small favorites. 

Angels vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (-135)

Oakland is among the worst teams in the big leagues, but in the rare games when the team is favored, the team is 8-2. 

I’ll ride with the A’s on Saturday at home after a 13-3 win against this same Angels team. 

Since the start of July, Los Angeles is hitting .213 with an OPS of .608, both ranking 30th in the big leagues. 

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-175)

A healthy Luis Severino has proven he is still a viable arm for a postseason-contending ball club, and I like him to keep it rolling against a limited Marlins lineup. 

Despite Miami’s win on Friday night, the lineup can’t be trusted against Severino’s potent fastball that is fantastic at limiting soft contact, 69th percentile with a hard-hit rate of 36%. 

Meanwhile, the Mets lineup will have little issue against Roddery Munoz, who has posted a 5.47 ERA through 10 big league appearances with an xERA even higher, 5.87. 

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-165)

After losing on a walk-off on Friday, I’ll back the Phillies to get back on track against the Pirates, who are starting 25-year-old flamethrower Luis L. Ortiz. 

Mainly a long reliever, Ortiz has shown he can pitch a bit longer into games, but his underlying metrics show struggles may be ahead. 

He has 2.83 ERA, but his xERA is far worse at 3.67. He has lowed his walk rate this season but still allows plenty of hard contact (38%, 50th percentile), which is a problem against the loaded Phillies lineup. 

Reds vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-110)

A coin flip matchup, I’ll take the home team in a battle of two young promising left handers. 

Both Reds’ starter Nick Lodolo and Nats’ SP MacKenzie Gore have proven to be viable, but I’ll take a stab on the road team with a better bullpen if both pitchers show out. 

Meanwhile, Cincinnati bolsters a league-average lineup against lefties while Washington checks in the bottom five in terms of OPS. 

Orioles vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-125)

Max Scherzer has looked the part in his first five starts of the season, but there are still questions about if he can limit contact from an Orioles lineup that is full of elite hitters. 

He faced the Orioles earlier this season, his second of the year, pitching five-and-a-third innings, allowing four hits with two earned runs with two walks and four strikeouts. 

In the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, with a shaky bullpen behind him, I’ll trust the AL East-leading Orioles. 

Brewers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (+105)

This game is a true coin flip matchup, so I’m inclined to take the plus money price tag on Milwaukee. 

Both Freddy Peralta of the Brewers and Pablo Lopez of the Twins are pitching better than the ERA above 4.00 would indicate, each near the top of the big league leaderboards in terms of strikeout rate, but a victim of some hard and unlucky contact. 

The edge in this one is actually on neither pitcher, who I project to have fine performances, but the bullpens, where Milwaukee ranks third in bullpen ERA.

Padres vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-110)

The Guardians are 31-11 at home and have been one of the most consistent teams in the big leagues, 42-19 as a favorite on the year. 

While Dylan Cease brings plenty of firepower to the mound for the Padres, I can’t trust San Diego to show up on the road against a sturdy Guardians pitching staff that will start second-year pro Gavin Williams and has a strong bullpen behind. 

Cleveland won 7-0 in the first of the weekend set, and I like them to make it two in a row over San Diego. 

White Sox vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-210)

Kansas City continued to dominate the lowly White Sox, and I expect it to continue on Saturday with Brady Singer on the bump. 

The Royals are 26-13 as favorites this season with a sterling 32-18 home mark. 

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-140)

I’ll side with Zac Gallen on the road against the Cubs, a ground ball pitcher (60th percentile) who can shut down an already mild Cubs lineup. 

Meanwhile, Arizona has the offense to throttle Kyle Hendricks, who has an xERA nearing 5.00 and a diminished strikeout ability, ninth percentile. The D-Backs are top 10 in OPS on the season and have the matchup to out-pace Chicago. 

Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-135)

The Dodgers have the firepower to get past the Red Sox at home after winning 4-1 on Friday. 

Los Angeles has the pitching staff to limit Boston’s offense, starting Justin Wrobleski for the third time, who has plenty of options behind him after Gavin Stone put in five innings of strong work. 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 22-23 as underdogs this season, a team capable of beating up on inferior opponents but not better ones.

Cardinals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cardinals (-115)

After a rain out, the Cardinals and Braves will play a double header on Saturday. 

Sonny Gray presents a serious pitching advantage for the Cardinals as the team heads to Atlanta. 

He is punching out 30% of batters (91st percentile) and limiting walks to a meager six percent of the time (78th percentile), which is impactful against a dangerous Braves lineup that can string together hits. 

Giants vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+140)

Logan Webb is a prime regression candidate in the second half of the season after finishing the first half of the season in the first percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage (49.9%). 

Webb has an ERA of 3.48 with an xERA of 4.24, a dangerous proposition as the team he is set to start against the Rockies at Coors Field. 

Further, left-hander Kyle Freeland can present some issues against the Giants, a below-average lefty-hitting team.

Astros vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-125)

I can’t trust Houston with Framber Valdez on the mound, who has diminished movement on his pitches and ranks in the second percentile in hard-hit rate. He is striking out only 20% of batters, in the 33rd percentile, which is going to give a team like the Mariners too many opportunities to cash in. 

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