Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Mets Live Underdogs vs. Yankees)

Reed Wallach | Jul 23, 2024

Jul 19, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) reacts from first base after hitting a single against the Miami Marlins during the third inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

As the trade deadline draws closer, inside of a week from now, the pressure is on for postseason-contending teams to position themselves to get into position for a deep fall run.

Two teams hoping to continue their fine play are the two teams from New York, with the Mets and Yankees set to meet for the second time this season in the Subway Series, this time in the Bronx at Yankee Stadium.

The Mets took both games from the Yankees in June, can the Yanks get back on track against its cross-town rival?

Here are our picks for the Subway Series opener as well as every game on the Major League Baseball slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (-185)

It’s tough to trust Lance Lynn when facing NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes. 

Lynn has struggled all season, ranking in the bottom 20 percentile in key metrics like xBA, xERA, barrel percentage, and pitching run value. 

While the Pirates bullpen gives me pause, I believe Skenes can work through the Cardinals' middling lineup to have enough cushion to offset any late-game variance. 

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-140)

The AL Central-leading Guardians will build on its lead on the pack with a win against division foe Tigers, who simply don’t have the lineup to keep up with Cleveland. 

The Guardians will face left-hander Joey Wentz, which will be a fine matchup for the hosts, as Wentz has an ERA north of 5.00 and has shown erratic control all season (11% walk rate). 

Cleveland is seventh in OPS against lefties, so I see the team having little issue cruising past the Tigers.

Orioles vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+160)

It’s a tough pill to swallow to advise backing the last place in the NL East Marlins against the AL East-leading Orioles, but I can’t trust the O’s starter Albert Suarez, who has an xERA of 4.06, which is far higher than his 2.81 ERA. 

This is a pure fade of Suarez at a big price. 

Padres vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (-125)

The Nationals are rightfully small favorites at home despite the starpower on the Padres. 

San Diego is 22nd in OPS against left-handed pitching, which makes for a good landing spot for Nats’ southpaw prospect DJ Herz, who has strong underlying metrics that feature a 29% strikeout rate and an xERA that is 3.43, far lower than his actual ERA through seven starts at 5.17.

Mets vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+135)

The Mets got the better of the Yankees in the first Subway Series of the season, and I expect it to continue on Wednesday with the Mets having a favorable matchup for left-hander Jose Quintana. 

The Yankees hit just .232 against southpaws this season and rank 19th in OPS, a clear flaw in the team’s lineup. 

While rookie standout Luis Gil is on the mound for the Bronx Bombers, the Mets lineup has proven to be a premier lineup in the bigs, 10th in OPS this month. 

I’ll take the big underdog. 

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-140)

While Blue Jays’ right-hander Jose Berrios is a prime regression candidate, his 4.01 ERA is masking a 4.94 xERA and low strikeout rate that is below 18%, the Rays pitching staff can’t be trusted.

Shawn Armstrong will get the start, a long reliever that has made five starts in 36 appearances this season but has posted a 5.91 ERA with poor underlying metrics that indicate a bottom-five percentile xBA and xERA. 

Armstrong and the Rays pitching staff can be in trouble against a Blue Jays team that has pop in the lineup. For what it’s worth, Armstrong is in the 16th percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

Reds vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-245)

While the Braves’ injuries continue to mount, the team will have Cy Young favorite Chris Sale on the mound to keep the team firmly in the NL Wild Card race. 

The Reds' offense ranks 22nd in batting average this season against left-handed pitching and has struck out at the third-highest clip, making for an advantageous matchup for Sale, who is striking out more than 32% of batters this season, 94th percentile. 

Phillies vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+125)

Zack Wheeler missed his last start ahead of the All-Star break due to a back injury, and while deemed minor, I’m curious how the team handles his workload in his first start back. 

Not to mention, the Twins enter as a playoff-contending team with a budding star on the mound in Simeon Woods Richardson. In his first full season in the bigs, Woods Richardson has posted a 3.51 ERA with an elite breaking ball pitch that features a powerful curveball that tops out at 80 miles per hour. 

I’ll bet on the uncertainty that the Phillies bring to this one and take the home underdogs. 

Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-110)

While the Cubs season hasn’t amounted to what the team had expected when it landed former Brewers manager Craig Counsell this offseason, but I like the team to win at home in a coin-flip matchup. 

Milwaukee, the first-place team in the NL Central, has slowed up a bit on offense in July, hitting only .247, right at the league average, and behind the Cubs, who sit at .259 and 10th in the bigs. 

Against Jameson Taillon, who rarely dishes out walks (below five percent), the Brewers may struggle to get runners in scoring position to cash in. 

White Sox vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+110)

The White Sox have struggled all season, but I can’t trust Jon Gray to outperform Garrett Crochet on Tuesday night. 

Gray, the Rangers’ right-hander has been fortunate all season, posting a 3.96 ERA that is far lower than his 4.81 xERA as his strikeout rate has dropped to the lowest full-season mark of his career. 

Crochet has been a Cy Young candidate this season, striking out 35% of batters with a blazing fastball that hits 100 miles per hour. 

The Rangers lineup is hitting .236 this month, 22nd in the bigs. I’m willing to wager the White Sox can get ahead and hold on. 

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-105)

This season has been a nightmare for Jordan Montgomery. 

After being a late spring signing with the Diamondbacks and a postseason hero for the Rangers last fall, Montgomery has seen his ERA balloon to 6.44 with a fifth-percentile strikeout rate. 

It won’t get easier against the Royals, who are sixth in batting average against left-handed pitching. 

Red Sox vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+135)

The Red Sox are a middling hitting group against left-handed pitching, so Rockies starter Ty Blach may be able to outperform this price tag against a slumping Boston team that has dropped four in a row. 

Astros vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astors (-135)

Houston continues to try and run down the Mariners at the top of the AL West, and I expect the team to begin to take care of business against out-matched opponents like the Athletics. 

Oakland will start Osvaldo Bido, who is making his second start of the season as a long reliever in the A’s bottom of the big leagues pitching staff.

Angels vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+145)

While Logan Gilbert is in the background of the AL Cy Young conversation, I can’t trust this Mariners lineup to keep up, last in Major League Baseball in July batting average. 

The Angels are struggling, but the team’s starter Jose Soriano has done a strong job this season of limiting the long ball, ranking in the 97th percentile in groundball percentage. 

I think this game will be tight and I’m willing to side with the underdog. 

Giants vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-140)

After a hot start to the season, Giants starter Jordan Hicks has come back to Earth. 

Hicks has an ERA of 5.97 in 10 starts, averaging less than five innings per start. 

He now has to face a Dodgers lineup that is the best in the big leagues in OPS. 

I’m going to keep fading the struggling Hicks. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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