Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Phillies Get Back on Track vs. Gerrit Cole)

Reed Wallach | Jul 30, 2024

Jul 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) celebrates with shortstop Trea Turner (7) after hitting a a two run home run against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Major League Baseball season is full of ups and downs.

Take the New York Yankees, who hit the skids after a scorching hot start to the season, but are now in the midst of a turning point as the team acquired the likes of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and are hitting better than any team in the bigs since the All-Star break. However, the team faces a stiff opponent in the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies.

The Yanks smoked the Phillies in the series opener Monday, 14-4, but are the Phillies a good bet to get back on track Tuesday?

Here's our full betting preview for Yankees vs. Phillies as well as every game on the Tuesday card!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland’s ability to hit left handed pitching is notable in this afternoon matchup against the Tigers. The team is 10th in OPS and should be able to knock around Tyler Holton, and get off to a good start. Horton, primarily a reliever who is serving as an opener, has some looming regression with a 3.42 xERA, far higher than his 2.96 actual ERA. 

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-205)

Corbin Burnes should build on his Cy Young resume on Tuesday against the Blue Jays. He has shut down Toronto this season, pitching a combined 13 innings of two earned run baseball against the Blue Jays this season. 

Baltimore also presents a massive hitting advantage and should have a far easier time against Chris Bassitt, who is due a big step back moving forward, posting a 4.26 xERA, far higher than his actual ERA of 3.78.

Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-120)

Gerrit Cole of the Yankees continues to be overrated in the betting market, so I’ll side with the far more complete team in the Phillies. 

Aaron Nola has been fantastic at limiting hard contact all season, ranking in the 76th percentile in hard-hit percentage. That’s big against a hard hitting Yankees team that is reliant on the middle of its lineup to do much of the heavy lifting. 

Nola can work around the Yankees sluggers like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and get the Phillies back on track after a blowout defeat against the Yankees. 

Marlins vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-170)

The Marlins are the worst hitting team in the big leagues against lefties, so I’ll side with Jeffrey Springs, set to make his first start since April of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

While there can be some availability concerns from Springs, the left hander should be able to get through the order at least once and give the home favorite a cushion to take care of the lackluster Marlins lineup. 

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-105)

James Paxton returns to the Red Sox, and the Mariners continue to struggle at the plate. 

Boston has been scorching at the plate to backup Paxton, who is second in OPS since the All-Star break while the Mariners continue to fail to hit, batting .211 since the break. 

These are two offenses in different places, I need to back the home underdog, even with some pitching concerns.

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-130)

Justin Steele has struggled out of the All-Star break, posting a 6.30 ERA in two starts, but this matchup against the Reds should suit him well, a team that is 23rd in OPS against southpaws. 

Steele has looked the part against Cincy this season especially, allowing two earned runs in 12 innings pitched against the NL Central foe. 

Twins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+105)

The Twins got smoked by the Mets potent offense on Monday, but I’m going to trust Minnesota to get back on track against New York given its top five OPS mark against left handed pitchers. 

Sean Manaea has been rock solid for the Mets in his first season with the club, but has an xERA nearly a run higher than his actual ERA (3.74 vs. 4.59), which makes it hard to get confident about his ability to hold up against an elite lineup. 

Rangers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (-120)

Two veterans duel on Tuesday night when Max Scherzer toes the rubber against Lance Lynn in the second game of the early week series between the Rangers and Cardinals. 

I’ll side with Scherzer, who has been sturdy in seven starts this season. He has posted an average ERA of 3.37 with elite off=speed stuff that is drawing a chase percentage in the 99th percentile and a hard-hit percentage in the 87th percentile.

Meanwhile, Lynn has failed to hold up this season, posting a 4.17 ERA that is supported by a 4.94 xERA.

Pirates vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-190)

Trust Hunter Brown on Tuesday. The right hander has been pitching at Cy Young levels since the start of June. He has a 2.07 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 10 starts since then. The Pirates won’t have an answer. 

Royals vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-200)

The Royals firepower was on display Monday night as Bobby Witt Jr. hit a go-ahead grand slam to win in Chicago, and I like the Royals to keep rolling in hopes of staying in the AL Wild Card race. 

The White Sox are a helpless bunch, losers of 15 straight. I can’t trust the home team. 

Braves vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-125)

Atlanta’s injury woes have continued and the team has called up Bryce Elder to provide some depth in the rotation. However, the righty hasn’t held up in eight big league starts this season, posting a 6.35 ERA while allowing a ton of hard contact (eighth percentile). 

I’ll side with the home favorites. 

Rockies vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+115)

In the rare chance the Angles are a favorite, it hasn’t gone well this season, the group is 6-10 as moneyline favorites on the year. 

With that in mind, I’ll side with the underdogs Rockies. Of course, this team is viewed in the same tier as the Angels, but the team is far more dangerous at the plate, 15th in OPS since the All-Star break that gives me confidence the team can hold up against an Angels team bottom five in the same metric. 

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (+125)

I’ll back the home underdogs Padres as I believe Matt Waldron can hold off the Dodgers vaunted lineup while Tyler Glasnow continues to be vulnerable. 

Waldron is in the top 15 percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage, which sets up nicely against the potent Dodgers bats, including NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani. 

With that in mind, Glasnow has been a bit more shaky outside of posting an elite strikeout pitch. While better than Waldron, no questions asked, he has been knocked around by hard contact, ranking in the 47th percentile in hard-hit rate. 

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-180)

Patrick Corbin can’t be trusted at all, especially against the Diamondbacks, who are fifth in OPS since the All-Star break. 

Arizona won in thrilling comeback fashion on Monday, and I expect the team to roll on Tuesday.

Athletics vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-200)

Robbie Ray looked stellar in his first start of the season last week, and I’ll go back to the well on Tuesday after he pitched five innings of one run baseball with eight strikeouts. The A’s lineup is rolling, but the team is at a pitching disadvantage with JP Sears on the mound (4.81 ERA). 

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