Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Best Bets for Pivotal Dodgers vs. Phillies Series)

Reed Wallach | Aug 5, 2024

Jul 24, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (31) delivers to the plate in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

August is here and pennant races are heating up in both the American League and National League.

While there are plenty of high-level matchups getting started on Monday, all eyes will be out west when the Phillies travel to face the Dodgers in a battle of the two top teams in the NL. Who will set the tone for this matchup on Monday?

Here's my take for the entire MLB card on Monday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mets vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-115)

Only the Marlins struggle against left handed pitching more than the Cardinals. 

St. Louis is hitting a ghastly .230 against southpaws on the year with an OPS of .642. The team can’t handle lefties, which makes me bullish that Sean Manaea can continue his fine play this season in his first year with the Mets. 

Manea is striking out an above-average amount of batters while posting an elite fastball in terms of its movement. He should have the edge against St. Louis’ bats. 

Reds vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-145)

Nick Martinez will serve as the opener for the Reds on Monday and he’ll pass the ball along to a bullpen that is seventh in ERA as a unit this season. 

Against a Marlins team that is bottom five in most hitting metrics, I’ll happily grab the Reds at a decent price on the road.

Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-125)

Arizona’s lineup should rake against Logan Allen, the lefty starter for the Guardians. 

Allen has been crushed by hard contact all season, in the fifth percentile in key metrics such as barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and xERA, which is a big issue against a Diamondbacks lineup that is top three in OPS against left-handed pitching. 

Also, the re-emergence of Arizona starter Zac Gallen, who is elite at pitching to ground ball contact, should help the visitors get this series starter on the right foot. 

Giants vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+165)

While I typically look to fade Patrick Corbin, I’m actually going to back the Nationals as home underdogs with the team’s struggling lefty on the mound. 

Corbin has an ERA of 5.88 and has been crushed by hard contact all year (fourth percentile), but Giants starter Logan Webb can’t justify this price. 

Webb is in the third percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage and 13th percentile in terms of xBA. Some good fortune has limited his ERA, 3.49, but his xERA stands at 4.22, a sign of bad things to come. 

Further, the Nationals are a bit undervalued at the dish, hitting .261 at a group since the All-Star break (seventh in the big leagues), so I’ll take a stab at the home underdog to string some quality at-bats together. 

Twins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-120)

Two struggling pitchers meet on Monday with David Festa (6.98 ERA) taking on Kyle Hendricks (6.86) of the Cubs. 

However, I’ll side with the far better lineup as well as Festa’s small sample size variance to go in his direction. The Twins are tied for sixth in OPS since the All-Star break while the Cubs are sitting as a bottom 10 team in the same metric. 

Further, Festa has only made three starts in his big league career, the top five Twins prospects can get better. 

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-115)

play-ounter Brown continues to be a play on pitcher, posting a 2.43 ERA over his last 11 starts since June 1st with a glistening strikeout rate that translates to about seven K’s per start. 

Both offenses have been playing below standards since the All-Star break, each bottom 10 in OPS, but I have to keep banking on Houston’s budding star on the mound to keep it rolling to start the pivotal AL West matchup.

Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-135)

With a pivotal AL Wild Card matchup starting in Kansas City, I’ll side with the Royals to stay hot at home, where the team has been among the best in the big leagues all season. 

Kansas City is 36-22 at Kauffman Stadium this year, and the team also thrives as a favorite with a 35-18 mark. 

White Sox vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (-180)

The White Sox are losers of 20 straight, so while it may be a surprise to see Oakland as such a massive favorite, its justified against a helpless White Sox team. 

Oakland has thrived in this rare situation as a favorite, going 9-3 as moneyline favorites this season, so I believe the potent offense can keep Chicago outside the win column. 

Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-130)

The two best teams in the National League begin a measuring stick series out west on Monday night and I’ll side with the home favorite. 

Philadelphia’s offense has sputtered coming out of the All-Star break, ranking 22nd in OPS since the midsummer classic. Against the talented Tyler Glasnow, who is striking out nearly a third of the batters he is facing. 

Given the state of the Phillies offense, I’m all for backing LA as small favorites. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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