Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Corbin Burnes a Worthy Favorite on July 4th)

Reed Wallach | Jul 4, 2024

Jun 27, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) delivers in the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports / Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

July 4th is here and we are expecting fireworks across the country in not just neighborhoods, but also the baseball diamond.

A full Major League Baseball card takes center stage on Thursday for Independence Day, including Corbin Burnes' quest to secure an AL Cy Young with the Baltimore Orioles.

Here are my betting thoughts for every game on the Thursday slate with all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and stats from MLBStatcast.

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-115)

The Mets maintain an edge on the road against the Nationals with a left hander on the mound, as Jose Quintana should be able to shut down the home team. The Nats are 28th in OPS against southpaws this season, enough for me to bite at this cheap price tag.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cardinals (-120)

Andre Pallante has had an evolving role this season, starting in six of his 15 appearances, but capable of passing through the lineup and pitching several innings. Pallante has an ERA of 4.50, but his xERA sits at 3.82 with an increased strikeout rate relative to his prior two seasons. 

I’ll back St. Louis as a small road favorite against the Pirates, who will start Martin Perez, who has seen a downward trajectory in Pittsburgh. Perez has a 5.28 ERA with a 6.04 xERA with a bottom 10 percentile hard-hit percentage. 

Reds vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-185)

I’ll trust the home favorite Yankees to get back on track against the Reds with soft contact tosser Marcus Stroman. 

While the Reds have shown out in the Bronx, Frankie Montas’ inability to find his strikeout pitch is going to be on display against the disciplined Yankees lineup that can find extra base hits in the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Montas ranks in the 29th percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-105)

Framber Valdez is on the no-bet list for me for the time being. The left hander ranks in the second percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity with a diminished pitch arsenal. 

Chris Bassitt has steadied his performance this season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA while striking out near his career average of batters. I think he can keep a handle on the Astros lineup while the Blue Jays navigate Valdez en route to a win.

White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-250)

I’m not banking on a big upset on July 4th from the lowly White Sox, fresh off an upset win against the Guardians. 

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-160)

Nick Pivetta remains a prime positive regression candidate into the second half of the season. 

The righty has a 4.52 ERA, but a 3.92 xERA with a better sense of control this season, sporting a career best walk rate of just five percent. 

Against a limited Marlins lineup, I trust Pivetta can find answers and the Red Sox above average lineup can put together a win. 

Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-185)

Minnesota should have little issue against Kenta Maeda, who has seen his ERA bloat to a 5.76. 

Without a strikeout pitch to rely on, his K% has dwindled to a career low 17% amidst a drop in movement on all of his pitches (third in pitching run value), Maeda can’t be relied on to keep up against a talented offense like the Twins. 

Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-130)

Cristopher Sanchez has been pitching like an All-Star this season, and I’ll trust the left hander to show out against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. 

Sanchez does a great job of limiting walks (74th percentile) and is a groundball pitcher (98th percentile), which sets up nicely against a Cubs lineup that is bottom third in the bigs in terms of OPS against southpaws. 

With the wind blowing out to left field, it will be hard for the Cubs to take advantage of the hitter friendly conditions. 

Padres vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (+115)

I’ll fade the Rangers with Max Scherezer set to make his third start of the season. 

The Padres will start Michael King to counter the future Hall of Famer, who has been consistent over a longer sample size, featuring a 3.61 ERA and an elite hard-hit percentage (88th percentile). 

Scherzer hasn’t pitched more than five-and-a-third innings, making it difficult for me to trust him to hold up, even if he pitches at a high level, and offset the Rangers bottom third bullpen. 

Angels vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (-105)

I don’t believe the A’s should be favored against the Angels, who have thrived against left handed pitching this season. 

The Halos are 11th in OPS against left handed pitching this season, which is meaningful against JP Sears, a lefty with concerning underlying metrics, including a diminished strikeout rate to 16%.

Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-150)

I’ll back Baltimore on Thursday with AL Cy Young front runner Corbin Burnes on the mound against a lackluster Mariners team. 

Seattle’s offense continues to limit the team’s upside, ranking 27th in OPS this season and hitting a big league low .203 over the last 30 days. 

The O’s are justified favorites with Burnes on the mound. The righty has a 2.28 ERA with elite control in terms of limiting walks and hard-hit percentage, top 80 percentile in each, which will keep down the Mariners struggling offense. 

Giants vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-120)

I don’t trust Giants starter Logan Webb, who is pitching far worse than his surface level numbers indicate. 

Webb has a 3.13 ERA with an xERA of 4.15 behind a hard-hit percentage in the first percentile. The Braves play in a hitter friendly ballpark of Truist Park, which can lead to a blow up outing from Webb, who is more than due for it. 

Brewers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+120)

Rookie Tobias Myers has looked the part of a rotation arm as part of the strong Brewers pitching staff, but I’m concerned about his first trip to Coors Field. 

The hitter friendly ballpark that yields plenty of home run potential can leave Myers vulnerable given his high flyball rate. Myers ranks in the 29th percentile in terms of groundball rate and 32nd in average exit velocity, leading me to backing the underdog Rockies. 

Rays vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+105)

The Royals play at near-.500 levels as an underdog this season, one of the best bets in baseball as an underdog, 24-29 overall, and is 31-17 at home on the year. 

I’ll stick with what works. 

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+115)

Zac Gallen showed no signs of rust after missing about a month due to injury, tossing six innings of one hit ball. Granted, that was against the Athletics, now he’ll face the Dodgers loaded lineup. 

With that in mind, I’m still going to take the underdog D-Backs, who have the offense to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers, evident in the 12 run outburst on Wednesday. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.