Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Dodgers a Rare Underdog on Friday vs. Astros)

Reed Wallach | Jul 26, 2024

Jul 25, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) runs after hitting a solo home run against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Friday brings a rare opportunity to bet on or against the Los Angeles Dodgers as an underdog.

The Dodgers, the most talented roster in baseball, is in the surprising role of an underdog in betting markets heading into its Friday night matchup, something it's been only 10 times this season.

Should you bet on Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers, or trust the surging Astros to keep pushing up the AL standings?

Here's our bet for Friday's marquee matchup as well as every game on the slate!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Twins vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-170)

Pablo Lopez has only made one start out of the All-Star break, pitching seven innings of one-run baseball, but that’s a sign of more coming down the season's stretch. 

Lopez has an ERA of 4.87, but an xERA of 3.39 as he has been the victim of poor batted ball variance. He is punching out 27% of batters (83rd percentile) and has an xERA that puts him among the top 30 percentile pitchers. 

He should be able to find his footing nicely against a limited Tigers lineup. 

Guardians vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-170)

The Phillies offense, which is in the top five in most notable hitting metrics, is likely going to have success against Ben Lively of the Guardians, enough to out-pace Cleveland in a battle of first-place teams. 

The Guardians right-hander ranks fourth in fastball velocity and has been a victim of hard contact all season (20th percentile). 

With that in mind, I’ll back the big bats of the Phillies to take care of business. 

Reds vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-110)

After sending out Randy Arozarena to the Mariners, the Rays have indicated their intentions of not necessarily competing at the highest level this season. 

It won’t get easier against the Reds, who will start left-hander Nick Lodolo. The 26-year-old left-hander will face a Tampa Bay team that is about league average in batting average and OPS against left-handers, and with Lodolo owed a bit of regression that lands him among the top half of big league pitchers, I’ll side with Cincinnati. 

Padres vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (+165)

This number is simply too big on a Padres team that has the talent to play with the best in the big leagues. San Diego ranks ninth in OPS since the All-Star break while the Orioles rank seventh, paced by a ton of power that is off-setting some shaky hitting. 

While Baltimore has the edge on the mound with Greyson Rodriguez, I’m going to keep fading the home favorites after a near-sweep against the Marlins earlier this week as the team enters this weekend set in poor form. 

Rangers vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (+100)

While Yusei Kikuchi has put together a solid season in Toronto, the lineup has struggled against left-handed pitching all season.

Toronto ranks 27th in OPS against southpaws, which the team is up against in Andrew Heaney on Friday night. 

Meanwhile, Kikuchi, a lefty, will need to handle a Rangers team that is 16th in OPS against left-handed pitching. 

Advantage: Texas.

Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-135)

The Mets won in thrilling fashion against the Braves on Thursday night, the start of a pivotal NL Wild Card-centric series, and I like the Amazins to keep it rolling on Friday with Koai Senga set to make his season debut. 

Senga dazzled in his first season in the bigs in 2023, posting a 2.98 ERA with a near-30% strikeout rate. While he may be eased into his first start, the Braves banged-up lineup that is hitting .221 may not have the firepower to keep up. 

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-120)

Can the Yankees get back on track? 

Starter Nestor Cortes may be in line to get the team off on the right foot against its rival Red Sox. 

The left-hander has elite control but has been crushed by hard contact all season, however, his ERA ballooning to nearly 4.00 (3.99) is a bit overrated as he has an xERA of 3.65. 

I’ll trust the Yankees, who tagged Brayan Bello in his lone start against the team this season, four earned runs in less than five innings of work with six hits, to scrape out a win on the road. 

Cubs vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-150)

Kyle Hendricks is far from a quality big league arm anymore, pitching to a 6.69 ERA this season, and now needs to travel to Kauffman Stadium to face the upstart Royals, one of the best big league teams at home. 

Kansas City is 35-20 at home, and a strong bet to win yet again in front of its faithful crowd. 

Dodgers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The Dodgers are the best-hitting team against left-handed pitching, and despite the team being 3-7 in the rare role as underdog, this is a strong bet on Friday. 

Framber Valdez has battled injuries at times this season, and has seen his strikeout percentage dip three percent this season, coinciding with a jump in hard-hit rate (48.3%, third percentile). Valdez has an xERA hovering at 4.00 (3.97) and his inability to limit hard contact is a big issue against the Dodgers lineup. 

Mariners vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+135)

The Mariners remain untrustworthy until proven otherwise given its struggles at the plate. 

Seattle is the only team that is hitting worse than Chicago in July, .204 vs. .206, and that gives me enough caution to take the juicy underdog price on the White Sox. 

Even with talent deficiencies, the Mariners have proven that the team can’t cover big prices until the team shores up its roster, which it started to do early Friday morning by trading for Randy Arozarena. 

Marlins vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-225)

Flame-throwingFlame throwing Freddy Peralta takes the mound on Friday for the Brewers and the hosts a strong bet to take care of business against the lonely Marlins, who are off an extra innings affair on Thursday against the Orioles. 

Even though the Brewers may struggle to get much separation early, the team is right at big league average in terms of OPS against left-handed pitching (which the team will face in Trevor Rogers), and the Brewers pitching staff far out-paces the Fish. 

Peralta is striking out more than 30% of batters and the team has an edge in the bullpen. 

I don’t envision an upset in Milwaukee. 

Nationals vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+140)

The Cardinals are among the worst at hitting left-handed pitching, .223 on the year which is 29th in Major League Baseball, and the team matches up against an emerging arm in MacKenzie Gore. 

The left-handed pitcher, Gore, is striking out batters at a top-25 rate while also inducing soft contact often. Against a Cards team that struggles to generate quality at-bats against Southpaws, I’ll take the big underdog price in a potentially low-scoring affair. 

Athletics vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (-125)

It may seem strange that the A’s are road favorites, but Oakland is the better team than its AL West rival Angels. 

In the rare case that the Athletics are favored, the team typically wins as well, going 9-3 as favorites on the year. 

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-175)

Both teams enter in decent form, but I’m going to side with the home favorite with Zac Gallen on the mound. 

The Cy Young contender last season hasn’t been as dominant, due in part to injuries, but his ability to generate groundball contact makes him a strong pitcher at Chase Field, a hitter-friendly ballpark. Gallen has an ERA of 3.35 at home this season, and I like him to keep down an in-form Pirates lineup on Friday. 

Rockies vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+150)

I simply can’t trust the Giants as this big of favorites given that the team is hitting .211 since the All-Star break (24th). For reference, Colorado is hitting .288 – worth noting that all six games have been at Coors Field, but a gap nonetheless – and Kyle Freeland has likely been better than his 5.63 ERA indicates. The lefty has an xERA of 4.70 and pitches to a league-average hard-hit rate. 

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