Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Dodgers Show World Series Level vs. Orioles)

Reed Wallach | Aug 27, 2024

Aug 25, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts (50) pumps his fist as he rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

A massive series starts in Los Angeles on Tuesday as the Orioles and Dodgers meet in a battle of two teams who could very well face at the end of October with the World Series on the line.

In the series opener, last year's starter, Jack Flaherty, will face his former team in the Orioles as a member of the Dodgers pitching staff. Can the Dodgers set the tone for the series with a resounding win as comfortable home favorites?

Here's how to bet on every game on Tuesday, August 27th MLB slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Royals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+130)

While the Royals give me concern on the road, the team is bottom 10 in OPS away from home, and the gap between these two teams is not what’s implied in the betting odds. 

Kansas City has been the better team since the All-Star break, fourth in OPS since the midsummer classic while the Guardians are bottom five in the same metric. 

Further, Gavin Williams has been a suspect pitcher all season for the Guardians, posting a 5.13 ERA this season, leaving the Guardians potentially outmatched on Tuesday. 

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-130)

Following an 18-8 boatrace of the Pirates, I like the Cubs to keep the slumping Pirates at bay at a cheap price with Justin Steele on the mound. 

Steele’s numbers have declined since the All-Star break, his ERA is at 3.93, but he remains an elite pitcher at finding his spots (76th in walk rate and 67th percentile in strikeout rate) by forcing soft contact, 89th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Astros vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-140)

Justin Verlander was able to toss five innings of two-run baseball against the Red Sox last week, his first start in more than two months, but I can’t trust him against one of the best offenses in baseball on the road. 

The Phillies present a myriad of issues against Verlander, who has been yielding one of the highest flyball rates in baseball this season (about 75%, first percentile) and is pitching in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Angels vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+140)

While the Angels are counting on veteran Johnny Cueto to hold down the Tigers, I believe the team is mispriced as underdogs against the Tigers, who have a clear edge on the mound against Tigers prospect Brant Hunter. 

The Angels are at about the big league average in terms of OPS against left-handed pitchers, and Hunter hasn’t shown the ability to navigate a lineup just yet, posting a 3.57 ERA in long relief four times.

Athletics vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-140)

As of this writing, the Reds haven’t selected its starting pitcher yet, but in any case, I’m going to side with the home team. 

Oakland has lost its power in the month of August, hitting the second-fewest dingers this month while the Reds have been able to rake, fifth in the same metric. 

There are question marks, but I’ll back the reds. 

Yankees vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-225)

While the Yankees struggle against left-handed pitching, at the league average in terms of OPS, Patrick Corbin is not worth trusting. 

The left hander has an ERA of 5.73 with an xERA of 5.83, bottom fifth percentile in both, and will likely hand the ball to a bottom 10 bullpen in terms of ERA, which gives me confidence Gerrit Cole can navigate the Nats and for the Yanks to secure a win. 

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-140)

These are two teams trending in different directions, the Jays have won eight of 10 and the Red Sox have dropped seven of 10, but I’ll back Boston at home to get back on track given his ability to mitigate hard contact and keep it on the ground, top 70th percentile in both hard-hit rate and ground ball percentage. 

Braves vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-110)

I’ll back Atlanta with surging rookie Spencer Schwllenbach, who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts while striking out at least seven batters in his last six starts. 

Padres vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-145)

There is no hotter team in baseball than the San Diego Padres, who are 25-9 since the All-Star break, and there’s arguably no better pitcher than Dylan Cease, who has a 1.82 ERA in that period. 

The Cardinals are out of it this season, and are starting diminished starter Miles Mikolas. 

Count on San Diego to roll yet again.  

Rangers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (-145)

While Garrett Crochet gives the White Sox an edge early, his pitch count will limit Chicago’s chances to win as the Rangers counter with a fellow lefty, Andrew Heaney. 

I’ll jump on the cheap price of the Rangers against one of the worst teams in the big leagues. 

Giants vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-110)

Logan Webb has been the unsung hero of the Giants season. 

The big league leader in innings, Webb has been able to put together a strong season of a 3.14 ERA with elite control. 

He’ll face a Brewers team that puts the ball in play a ton, but that plays into Webb’s arsenal. I like San Francisco to pull away from Milwaukee in a low-scoring affair. 

Marlins vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+125)

In a battle of two of the worst teams in the big leagues, give me the team plus money. 

The Rockies are in the rare spot as a favorite, just twice this season, and I’ll grab the big number on Miami in a game with a ton of variance. 

Rays vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+130)

The Mariners will start Logan Gilbert, among the big league’s best pitchers this season, but the offense remains overrated, bottom five in OPS on the year, and will face the talented Jeffrey Springs, who continues to be stretched out after returning from Tommy John surgery. 

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-115)

Two potent offenses meet in the desert to start a weekday set that has NL Wild Card implications, but I give the edge to the home team that is top three in OPS against left-handed pitchers. 

If this game becomes a high scoring affair, I’ll side with Arizona’s bats. 

Orioles vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-200)

While on the surface the gap doesn’t seem that great between two World Series contenders, the Orioles are slumping quite a bit and may be outclassed out west to end August. 

The Orioles have been playing .500 baseball since the All-Star break, and now face former Orioles starter Jack Flaherty, who has regained his elite form and is now a key cog in the Dodgers rotation. 

The righty strikeout artist (11.7 K/9) has an ERA of 3.22 with pinpoint control. 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are a top-three lineup against lefty pitching, so I give the home team a big edge at the plate against Cole Irvin of the Orioles.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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