Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Fade Paul Skenes?)

Reed Wallach | Aug 16, 2024

Aug 10, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

A full weekend of Major League Baseball gets started on Friday and all eyes will be on Paul Skenes and the Pirates.

The rookie sensation always has the eyes of baseball fans, but with the Pirates mired in a 10 game slide that has the team out of the Wild Card race, how many more times will Skenes take the mound in 2024, especially with his diminishing velocity?

I take a look at the Mariners vs. Pirates matchup, as well as every game on the Friday night card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Blue Jays vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-115)

In a coin flip matchup, I’m going to go with what’s working this season, and that’s fading the Blue Jays as underdogs. 

Toronto has underwhelmed all season, and when the team is listed as underdogs, the struggles are even more apparent, going 19-37 straight up. Meanwhile, Chicago has been a decent bet at home, going 32-27 on the year at Wrigley Field. 

Royals vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-140)

The Royals continue to be a fade on the road, 23rd in OPS away from Kauffman Stadium, which has become one of the most hitter friendly parks in the big leagues. 

While Great American Ballpark skews towards hitters as well, I’m going to side with the home favorite Reds with Nick Martinez on the mound. The veteran right hander has returned to his normal role as a starter and has pitched very well, posting a 3.16 ERA while doing a great job of limiting hard contact, ranking in the 97th percentile, impactful on a field where the ball can fly out. 

Yankees vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-190)

After missing the first part of the season before returning to the field in suspect form, I think it’s time to start buying into Gerrit Cole as the Yankees gear up for an AL Pennant run. 

Cole has allowed three earned runs over his last two starts, including a 10-strikeout performance against the Rangers last week. He will face a bottom five offense in the Tigers in terms of OPS, so I believe Cole has the edge while we are getting a fair price on New York to win the game outright as the betting market continues to lag. 

Mariners vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (+110)

Paul Skenes’ has seen his play drop since the All-Star break, his ERA is up to 3.16 in his last four starts since starting in the ASG after posting a 1.90 ERA in his first 11 big league starts, and yet we are still having to pay top dollar on him against an elite arm in Logan Gilbert, who has a 2.91 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate. 

The Pirates are in a tailspin, returning home from a west coast swing that saw the team’s losing streak balloon to 10 games. 

Don’t catch the falling knife, fade the Pirates. 

Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-275)

The Phillies are the best offense in Major League Baseball against left handed pitching this season, and should have little issue against southpaw Patrick Corbin of the Nationals on Friday (5.98 ERA). 

Diamondbacks vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-105)

The Diamondbacks have thrust itself into the NL West race, just two back of the vaunted Dodgers, but I’m going to fade Arizona on the road on Friday. 

Despite winning nine of its last 10, and the Rays mired in a three of 10 slump, I’m going to eye Tampa Bay as small road underdogs given Ryan Pepiot’s ability to work around batters. The Tampa Bay starter is striking out batters at a 79th percentile clip and has a potent fastball, enough to give me confidence against Ryne Nelson, who ranks in the fifth percentile in K rate and has a 20th percentile xBA. 

There will be more opportunities for the Rays to put the ball in play in start this series off with a win. 

Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+180)

While Corbin Burnes remains one of the premiere pitchers in baseball, I’ll back the Red Sox at a big underdog price to touch up the AL Cy Young candidate. Boston’s offense has been elite of late, the third best in terms of OPS since the All-Star break, and Burnes xERA suggests he can be vulnerable (2.71 ERA vs. 3.11 xERA).

Could Boston put the pressure on Baltimore to answer? I’m willing to find out at long odds. 

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-230)

I like the Mets to get back on track against the Marlins at home on Friday night as Miami has been incredibly weak against left handed pitching this season, which the Mets have on the mound in Sean Manaea. 

Miami ranks 29th out of 30 big league clubs in OPS and the Mets southpaw has posted an above average ERA all season, 3.44.

Twins vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+100)

The Twins are a top 10 lineup against left handed pitching, which the team will face in Andrew Heaney of the Rangers. I believe Minnesota can set the tone at the plate while Twins starter Simeon Woods-Richardson can keep the Rangers offense at bay with his 3.78 ERA. 

White Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-190)

The White Sox will start Garrett Crochet on Friday, giving us the cheapest possible price on the lowly visitors. With its premiere young pitcher on the mound, the White Sox always are viewed at its best, but with a pitch count for the left hander as the team faces a postseason bound Astros team, I must fade at this price. 

Houston is the far superior offense with a more reliable set of pitching, take the home favorite. 

Guardians vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (+100)

I can’t support backing the Guardians as road favorites against a quality Brewers lineup that has remained a top 10 offense in terms of OPS since the All-Star break. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense has slid quite a bit, 26th in OPS since the midsummer classic. 

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-135)

It’s unclear who the Dodgers are going to start at the time of this writing, with a possible bullpen game in store for Los Angeles, but I will trust the team’s resurgent offense with Mookie Betts back in the lineup. 

LA scored four or more in all four games in Milwaukee, but only took home a series split against the NL Central leading Brewers. The team will face a much more maligned Cardinals offense that will struggle to keep up on Friday. 

Padres vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-175)

Only the Diamondbacks are hitting better than the Padres since the All-Star break, and now San Diego heads to the hitter friendly Coors Field where it can build on its .283 batting average since mid-July with more power against the NL West bottom dwellers Rockies.

Braves vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+125)

Jose Soriano and the Angles are worth a bet at an underdog price. 

Soriano has been one of the most viable arms in the shaky LA rotation, doing a great job of keeping balls in the field of play with a 97th percentile ground ball rate. He will be faced with an above average Braves lineup, but I believe Los Angeles can be up to the test at this price. 

The Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, who has strong underlying metrics, including a 3.09 xERA that is lower than his 3.95, but I believe this price is an overreaction with the variance that comes from a one game sample.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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