Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Mets Heater Continues in Subway Series)

Reed Wallach | Jun 25, 2024

Jun 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) and center fielder Tyrone Taylor (15) celebrate after the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Every baseball team takes the diamond on Tuesday for early week action.

The most notable matchup is the beginning of the 2024 Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees, which has a ton of intrigue with the Mets playing its best ball of the season now and the continued return of Gerrit Cole.

Here's how I'm betting Tuesday's big league card, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Guardians vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Orioles (-150)

Two quality ball clubs meet in Baltimore on Tuesday, and I’ll favor the home Orioles, who have the more reliable Cole Irvin (3.45 ERA) on the mound against Logan Allen (5.23 ERA) in a pitching matchup of two lefties. 

Both teams are top 10 in OPS against left-handed pitching, with the Orioles slightly ahead, and I’ll take the home team that is 25-15 at Camden Yards this season. 

Phillies vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Tigers (+105)

The two favorites to win Cy Young in the respective league, Ranger Suarez of the Phillies and Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, meet in Detroit on Tuesday. 

I’ll fade the NL Cy Young favorite Suarez, who is pitching at an incredible level, but is due for a drop-off after posting a 1.75 ERA through 15 starts, but has an xERA of 2.86. 

The Tigers offense may not be as potent, bottom 10 in OPS, but will have the talented Skubal matching Suarez to out-perform this price tag. 

Mariners vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Rays (+105)

While the Mariners pose a tough test for Zack Littell, I believe he can outperform Luis Castillo at home. The Rays starter is elite at avoiding walks, 94th percentile per MLBStatcast, and great at getting swings and misses, 78th percentile in chase percentage, which is big against a Mariners team that is below the league average in batting average. 

Meanwhile, Castillo has been rock solid but isn’t untouchable, 32nd in hard-hit percentage and 29th percentile in average exit velocity.

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Mets (+120)

Gerrit Cole’s second start of the year comes against the surging Mets, who are right back in the postseason picture, who counter with lefty David Peterson. 

Cole’s usage is still to be determined moving forward on a game-by-game basis, and Peterson may be a tough matchup given the Yankees are 16th in OPS against lefties. 

I’ll back the home underdogs. 

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Red Sox (-120)

Kevin Gausman continues to be overrated in the betting market, a pitcher who has 15 starts under his belt with a 4.24 ERA with a 5.15 xERA.

We have nearly half of a season of Gausman showcasing diminished velocity and strikeout ability, yet continues to be rated as a high end starter like he was in the past. 

The Red Sox are rolling in June, second in OPS, and should win this coin flip matchup against a struggling division foe. 

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Reds (-125)

Hunter Greene’s strong season has continued and I like him at a cheap price to navigate a win against the Pirates.

Greene has been able to allow far less hard contact this season, down 10% from last year, which has led to a big drop in his ERA, from 4.82 in 2023 to 3.35. 

He’ll face an in-form Mitch Keller, but his underlying metrics show concern for him with a dwindling strikeout rate and an xERA that is more than a half-run higher. 

Braves vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Braves (-135)

Both Reynaldo Lopez of the Braves and Kyle Gibson of the Cardinals have massive regression looming, but I’ll trust Atlanta’s offense to handle a soft-tossing Gibson who is allowing a ton of hard contact (29th percentile in hard-hit percentage). 

Dodgers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Dodgers (-220)

White Sox starter Chris Flexen strikeouts less than 20% of batters this season, which is going to lead to issues against the best offense in baseball in the Dodgers, who strikeout at a bottom 10 rate and are able to generate power from all parts of the lineup.

Rangers vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Brewers (-120)

This is a ton of respect for the Rangers, who are 28th in OPS in the month of June, on the road against a first place Brewers team at home, where the club is 23-12.

Marlins vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Royals (-200)

The Royals June swoon got a reprieve with the lowly Marlins coming to Kansas City, and I believe it can continue with its promising starter Seth Lugo on the mound. 

It’s tough to get a gauge on veteran Yonny Chirinos, who is set to make his second start of the season against a Royals team that has struggled, but still has pop in the bats. 

Rockies vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Astros (-250)

Houston starter Hunter Brown has finally found his form, allowing seven earned runs in his last six six starts. 

Simply put, the Rockies offense isn’t equipped to handle the Astros right hander, 26th in OPS on the road. 

Athletics vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Athletics (+105)

Tyler Anderson continues to post unsustainable metrics, a 2.48 ERA with a 4.51 xERA based around a 16% strikeout rate (12th percentile) and 10% walk rate (19th percentile). 

I’ll take a shot with the underdog A’s, who are 19th in OPS against lefties. 

Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Diamondbacks (+105)

I’ll trust the home underdogs Diamondbacks, who have Brandon Pfaadt on the mound. 

While Twins’ starter Joe Ryan has been pitching like an All-Star in 2024, Pfaadt has some positive regression coming his way, posting a 3.29 xERA against his 4.37 ERA with elite control (79th percentile walk rate). 

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Nationals (-105)

The Padres are hitting .228 against lefties, a big issue against emerging star MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. 

Without an ability to get runs on the board early, this can be a difficult test for the Padres, who have the worse bullpen ERA compared to the Nats, 19th vs. 15th. 

Cubs vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Giants (+100)

San Francisco has been hitting better in the month of June and there is a negligible pitching difference on the mound with soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks facing off against unproven converted bullpen arm of Ryan Walker, who has a 95th percentile strikeout rate this season. 

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