Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Phillies Will Snap Losing Streak Tonight)

Iain MacMillan | Aug 3, 2024

Jul 31, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third base Alec Bohm (28) runs the bases after hitting a triple during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the weekend! This is the time of the baseball season when every game is important for teams who want to make a run at the playoffs, which makes each match a little more exciting.

With 15 games on the board for us to watch and bet on today, let's make the most of it. As we always do on Rounding the Bases, I'm going to give you my pick for which team will win every game.

Let's dive into it.

All odds listed via FanDuel Sportsbook

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Yankees -190

Carlos Rodon had a bad stretch for the Yankees but he's turned things around of late, allowing a combined five earned runs across his last 17.1 innings pitched. Now he gets to face a Blue Jays team that's 26th in OPS against lefties this season.

The Blue Jays may have won the first game of the series, but their offense and abysmal bullpen make them hard to trust to win another.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Cardinals +100

The starting pitcher matchup in this game is largely a wash with the Cardinals rolling with Kyle Gibson (3.97 ERA) against Jameson Taillon (3.35 ERA) of the Cubs, so let's look to the offenses to figure out which side we want to back. The Cardinals are 11th in OPS at .751 over the last 30 days while the Cubs are 19th at .718. That's enough to convince me to back the underdogs in this rivalry game.

Brewers vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Nationals +102

Despite the wildly different records, the Nationals and Brewers are closer than you may think when you dig into the metrics. For example, the Brewers are 16th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Nationals are right behind them, coming in at 18th.

I'll take a shot on the home underdogs here.

Royals vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Royals -138

Now is not the time to jump off the Royals bandwagon. Their offense had a cold stretch in the middle of the season, but they're now sixth in OPS dating back to July 1. They're still being undervalued in the betting market.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Diamondbacks +102

We're likely getting some value on the Diamondbacks today due to Jordan Montgomery and his 6.51 ERA getting the start, but in reality a few horrific starts skewed his metrics across just 15 starts. His 4.53 FIP is also a promising sign we'll see some positive regression from the lefty.

Let's also consider the Diamondbacks lead the Majors in OPS (.852) dating back to the start of July so they seem like a great bet in this spot at plus-money.

Red Sox vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Red Sox -118

The Texas Rangers season is slipping through their fingers and now they're in a series against a Red Sox team that's second in OPS dating back to July 1. Things have not gone right for the defending champs this season and I don't think this is the time to bet on them to turn things around.

White Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Twins -196

The Chicago White Sox have lost 18 straight games. Do you want to bet your own hard-earned money on them finally snapping that streak today? I certainly don't.

Giants vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Reds -136

The Reds offense has woken up and now is the time to bet on them. They need to string together some wins in a hurry if they want to get back in the playoff race and that could start with a victory today.

Rays vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Astros -154

The Astros are rolling with Ronel Blanco as their starter today and his 2.95 ERA makes him one of the more underrated starters in the American League. I'm willing to bet on him to stay hot against a below-average Rays offense.

Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Orioles -118

I continue to try to fade the Guardians thinking they'll regress but they find ways to win games. Despite that, I'm going to stick to my guns and bet on the Orioles who have had the far superior offense this season. Zach Eflin will be making his second start since joining the O's, after allowing three earned runs in 6.0 innings against the Blue Jays on July 29.

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Marlins +200

I'm going to take a shot on the Miami Marlins to pull off the significant upset in this NL East showdown. They're 14th in OPS over the last month while the Braves come in at 23rd. That alone makes them worth a sprinkle at their current price tag.

Rockies vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Padres -220

I certainly have no interest in betting on the Rockies, who will be starting Tanner Gordon (8.80 ERA) today. Just give me the Padres and let's move on.

Dodgers vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Athletics +146

I correctly called the Athletics upsetting the Dodgers yesterday and I'm going to do the same again today. It may be surprising to find out, but they're third in the Majors in OPS at .835 dating back to July 1. They truly have one of the hottest offenses in the majors.

Mets vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Mets -130

The Mets are seventh in OPS over the last month while the Angels continue to be one of the worst offenses in baseball. Only the White Sox have been worse with their bats than the Angels so I'll continue to bet the Mets as short favorites.

Phillies vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Phillies +104

It's time for the Phillies to snap their losing streak. Orion Kerkering and his 2.21 ERA gets the start for them tonight and the Mariners' offense continues to be unimpressive, batting just 2.21 since the start of last month.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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