Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Take Orioles as Home Underdogs)

Reed Wallach | Aug 24, 2024

Aug 21, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) attempts to turn a double play after forcing out New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (not pictured) during the eighth inning at second base at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros and Orioles continue to trade blows in a potential postseason preview against one another this weekend.

After Baltimore won on Friday to even the series at one game a piece, can the Orioles win at home for a second straight day? The team will look to continue its success against lefty pitchers, this time against Framber Valdez.

Here's our full betting preview for Astros vs. Orioles on Saturday as well as the entire MLB card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rockies vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-275)

The Rockies simply lack the firepower and pitching depth to keep up with the Yankees. 

New York has two of the best hitters in baseball in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, pacing the team to a top five OPS in the month of August. Meanwhile, the Rockies check in 22nd in the same metric. 

Angels vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-165)

The Blue Jays have had a down year, but still have a significant talent advantage over the lowly Angels, who have dropped eight of the last 10 games. 

Toronto is in good form at the plate, ninth in OPS and winners of six of 10. I believe the team can take care of business at home. 

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (+110)

Baltimore has a top five offense against left handed pitching, which sets up nicely against Framber Valdez, who hasn’t been able to match his elite form we’ve come to expect year over year. 

He has been crushed by hard contact all season, fifth percentile and has seen his strikeout rate drop slightly amidst an average walk rate. Baltimore should be able to put runners on the basepaths against Houston and secure a home win as underdogs.  

Brewers vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-135)

Milwaukee should put enough runners on the basepaths to out-pace Oakland on the road on Saturday at a cheap underdog price tag. 

The Brewers have a matchup edge against Joe Boyle of the Athletics, who is walking batters at the first percentile and also struggling to avoid hard contact, 28th percentile. Milwaukee is third in walk rate on the year as a lineup, setting up for an advantageous matchup on Saturday. 

Giants vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-105)

In a pitcher’s duel on Saturday, I’ll side with the reigning NL Cy Young Blake Snell, who has a 1.34 ERA in his last six starts since the All-Star break. He has found his punch out pitch, his nasty breaking ball, and should keep the Mariners shaky lineup at bay. Seattle is 25th in OPS since the All-Star break. 

Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-165)

Shota Imanaga should have an edge on the lackluster Marlins bullpen, and I’m itching to fade Marlins rookie Valenete Bellozo, who has concerning underlying metrics. He has a 2.46 ERA in his first six starts, but an xERA of 3.99 with concerning hard-hit numbers. 

I believe Chicago can navigate a road win on Saturday. 

Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-110)

Arizona proved it had the offensive firepower to offset Boston’s bats on Friday, and I believe we see similar on Saturday with the Diamondbacks taking a second game from the Red Sox. 

The D-Backs are the best hitting team in the bigs since the All-Star break in terms of OPS and have its best pitcher on the mound, Zac Gallen, to slow down a strong Red Sox lineup. 

Give me Arizona in a battle of two Wild Card hopefuls from each league. 

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (-105)

The Reds have dropped two straight to the Pirates this weekend, and I’m not siding with the slight road favorites on Saturday in a near pick ‘em matchup. 

Neither team is sending out a stud pitcher, the Reds are starting prospect Julian Aguiar (4.50 ERA) and the Pirates will send out Jake Woodford (6.67 ERA), so I’ll side with the cheaper price. 

Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (-275)

Tarik Skubal is the runaway AL Cy Young favorite and despite the Tigers limited offense, should be able to handle the lowly White Sox, who have the worst OPS against southpaws. 

Cardinals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-140)

The Cardinals have its best pitcher on the mound in Sonny Gray, but Pablo Lopez should be able to offset his talent on the mound, especially when looking at the difference in talent at the plate. 

Minnesota is a top 10 hitting lineup since the All-Star break and has been cashing as a favorite all season, 53-32 as a favorite. 

Lopez has been better than his numbers all season, posting a 3.56 xERA against a 4.47 ERA, meaning he’s been unlucky, but he maintains strong control and gets plenty of swings and misses. 

Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-125)

Jon Gray has been a fade candidate all season, striking out a career low 19.8% of batters with an xERA of 4.46 that fails to support a 3.75 ERA. 

Cleveland’s offense has struggled since the All-Star break, 29th in OPS, but I’m willing to take the small home favorite with the far more complete pitching staff. 

Phillies vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+100)

The Phillies will try to reacclimate Ranger Suarez back to the rotation after missing about a month due to injury. 

However this is a tough task on the road as a favorite as one of the best home teams in baseball, the Royals, who are 41-26 at Kauffman Stadium.

Suarez may be on a strict pitch count, which can limit the effectiveness of the starting pitcher and a misprice in the opening odds. I’ll take the home underdogs. 

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+150)

The Braves got a fortuitous win against the Nationals on Friday in extra innings, but I think Washington evens the weekend set on Saturday. 

Charlie Morton has an ERA of 4.29, and an xERA of 4.61 and a diminished strikeout rate as his curveball has been solved by the big leagues. Washington’s offense has been middling to poor all season, but I can’t trust Morton at this number. 

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+130)

Michael King is in good form since the All-Star Game, posting a 2.37 ERA in five starts, but the Mets offense has proven to be talented enough to make this game a coin flip with emerging lefty David Peterson on the mound. 

These are two dangerous postseason contenders, each top half of the bigs since the All-Star break in OPS, but I’m going to grab the plus money price.

Rays vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+160)

Taj Bradley has slowed up after a hot stretch between June and August, posting an 8.40 ERA in three starts this month, but I’m going to grab the big price on the Rays on the road against the Dodgers. 

Clayton Kershaw continues to be stretched out to be part of the postseason rotation, but he appears caped at six innings and the Rays are an above average hitting team against lefty pitchers. There is more variance in this game than the price indicates. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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