Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Trust Red Sox at Home vs. Astros)

Reed Wallach | Aug 9, 2024

Aug 5, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) singles in the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros and Red Sox have been staples in the American League postseason for the past decade or so, and each team is jockeying for position over one another in a crowded 2024 postseason race. 

The two teams meet in Boston on Friday night to start a weekend series in hopes of betting their respective position at the hands of the other. Two starters will take the mound that have outperformed expectations all season with Ronel Blanco set to start for the Astros while Tanner Houck takes the ball for the Red Sox. 

Here’s how to bet on Astros vs. Red Sox as well as the entire Friday night card across Major League Baseball. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (+120)

The first of a doubleheader pits the sliding Guardians against the second-place Twins in what could be a pivotal series to deciding the AL Central. 

While Cleveland enters in poor form and hasn’t announced a starter for the first game as of this writing, I’m going to side with the underdog Guardians in the opener. 

The Guardians have had the Twins number all season, winning all five meetings. I’ll take the underdog price.

Angels vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+100)

The Angels are a capable team at hitting a left-handed pitcher, right at the big league average, and should be able to handle Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. 

Parker has an xERA slightly higher than his ERA, 4.47 vs. 4.06, and has a sub-20% strikeout rate, which makes me bullish that the Angels can find hits to get to a bottom 10 Nationals bullpen. 

Orioles vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-135)

Give me Zach Eflin against his former club as the Orioles look to keep pace in the AL East race. 

In two starts with his new team, Eflin has seen his fortune change as he has allowed soft contact but only three earned runs in both starts in at least six innings in each appearance. 

After having an xERA that is far lower than his ERA, it feels that it's starting to correct in Baltimore. Eflin has an ERA of 4.05 on the year but is supported by a 3.40 xERA. 

Rangers vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (+150)

The Yankees continue to be overpriced as a favorite against left-handed pitchers. The team may have some of the best hitters in the sport, like Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, but the team is below the big-league average against southpaws.

Cody Bradford may have middling metrics, but his ERA of 3.96 is likely a bit inflated against his xERA of 3.52 with a strikeout rate of 24%. 

Give me the Rangers at a big plus money price. 

Athletics vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+125)

The A’s are hitting way too well at the moment to be this big of underdogs against the Blue Jays. 

Oakland is top 10 in OPS since the All-Star break and will face Jose Berrios, who has an xERA of 5.28, far higher than his 4.11 ERA. He has been allowed a ton of hard contact, which sets up for a tough night on the mound and gives Oakland necessary run support. 

Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-130)

Ronel Blanco has been riding way too close to the sun all season, posting a 3.95 xERA against a 2.98 ERA. He strikes out nearly a quarter of batters but also walks nearly 10% of them, which can lead to issues against the Red Sox, who are the best-hitting team since the All-Star break. 

Boston will be paced by groundball pitcher Tanner Houck (92nd percentile), which can limit big innings from Houston while the Red Sox get a home win. 

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-125)

The Marlins are the worst hitting team against left handed pitching, making for a tough matchup against Martin Perez of the Padres. I’ll take the more reliable offense in San Diego, who is fourth in OPS since the All-Star break.

Cubs vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-140)

The White Sox snapped a 21-game losing streak on Wednesday, but I’m going to go back to fading the South Siders with its best pitcher on the mound in Garrett Crochet. 

Crochet is a stud on the mound, but I can’t ignore the poor White Sox offense that has been hitting .195 since the All-Star break. 

Over the course of nine innings, I believe the Cubs can pull away against the lowly cross-town rival. 

Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-105)

I’ll side with the Guardians in the second of two as well given the team’s reliable bullpen, the best in all of baseball. 

With a double header, there’s a ton of variance involved, let’s stick with the more complete team. 

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-135)

The Brewers are the more trustworthy bunch, and I believe the Reds are getting way too much credit, a bottom-five hitting lineup in terms of OPS on the year. 

Milwaukee is 31-21 on the year, I’ll grab the cheap price. 

Cardinals vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-120)

The Royals have been a mispriced team at home all season, 37-24 at home and 36-20 as a favorite. 

Stick to the home team at Kauffman Stadium. 

Braves vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-155)

In the midst of a five game slide, the Braves head to Colorado to hopefully get on track. 

The pitching staff of Atlanta has been tested all season due to injuries, and the team will count on Grant Holmes to handle the Rockies at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, but I’m going to trust Atlanta’s offense, which still has pop in it, 11th in home runs this month, to navigate a poor pitching staff of Colorado. 

Mets vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-105)

It’s tough to trust the Mariners against a quality club like the Mets. 

Seattle is hitting .208 as a club since the All-Star break and continues to face issues against left-handed pitching. The offense isn’t good enough to stack up against a Mets team that is top third of the bigs in all major hitting categories. 

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+120)

I’ll fade Zack Wheeler on Friday, who is pitching slightly worse than his underlying metrics state. He has an xERA of 3.00 with a 2.77 ERA and an increased walk rate this season. 

It will be challenging against a Diamondbacks team that is second in OPS since the All-Star break while the Phillies continue a prolonged slump at the plate, right at league average for one of the best teams in the big leagues. 

Pirates vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-200)

The Pirates are sliding out of the NL Wild Card race, and it won’t get easier with a trip out west to face the Dodgers, who will be starting trade deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty for the first time. 

Los Angeles has the hitting edge, as well as the pitching edge with Flaherty on the mound, who is striking out about a third of the batters he’s faced this season. 

Tigers vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-200)

Robbie Ray gets the nod on Friday night, and I’ll happily fade the Tigers, who are bottom five in OPS against southpaws this season. 

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