Royals vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for AL Wild Card Game 1 (Trust Corbin Burnes)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Game 1 of the AL Wild Card between the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes. / Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals are back in the MLB Playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015, and they’ll take on the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card round on Tuesday afternoon. 

Baltimore wasn’t able to win the AL East, but it ran away with the top wild-card spot in the American League, giving it home-field advantage in this series.

The winner of the Royals-Orioles matchup will end up playing the New York Yankees in the ALDS. 

Some of the best young hitters in baseball – Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., Adley Rutschman, and others – will be in action in this series. 

So, how should we bet on Game 1?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch probable pitchers, and a prediction for Tuesday’s matchup. 

Royals vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Royals +1.5 (-180)
• Orioles -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline

• Royals: +124
• Orioles: -148

Total

• 7 (Over +105/Under -115)

Royals vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Kansas City: Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA)
• Baltimore: Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA)

Royals vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Series: Tied 0-0

Royals vs. Orioles Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr.: One of the best hitters in baseball this season, Witt Jr. will finally get his first crack at postseason baseball. During the regular season, the star shortstop hit .332/.389/.588 with 32 home runs, 109 runs batted in, and 31 stolen bases. 

Baltimore Orioles

Corbin Burnes: Over the final month of the regular season, Corbin Burnes was lights out, posting a 1.20 ERA over five starts. However, the O’s went just 3-2 in those games, so they’ll need to give Burnes more run support in the playoffs. Baltimore went 20-12 in Burnes’ outings in the regular season. 

Royals vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The Royals have been an exciting young team this season, but I’m not sold on them beating Burnes in Game 1. 

The Orioles have dominated in Burnes’ starts this season, and the ace has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts, giving up more than three earned runs on just four occasions this season. 

On the Kansas City side, I’m a little worried about Cole Ragans going up against an offense that ranks eighth in MLB in OPS against lefties. Kansas City is just 16-16 straight up in Ragans’ outings this season, and he was shelled for seven runs in 1.2 innings in his last start against Baltimore – although it came in April. 

Ragans likely will keep the Royals close, but I can’t fade Burnes when the O’s are winning over 60 percent of his starts in 2024. 

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-148)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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