Saint Mary's vs. San Francisco Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Thursday, Feb. 6

Reed Wallach | Feb 6, 2025

Dec 7, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; St. Mary's Gaels head coach Randy Bennett looks on during the second half against the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Saint Mary’s quest to be the top mid-major seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament got a major boost on Saturday when the team took down Gonzaga at home. 

The Gaels have been on a tear in WCC play and with a cushion on the Bulldogs now, can further its separation from the rest of the pack against San Francisco on Thursday night on the road. 

The Dons were blown out on the road against Saint Mary’s a few weeks back, losing 71-51, but can the team show up at home following the Gales' big win against Gonzaga. 

Here’s everything you need to bet on this Thursday night showdown. 

Saint Mary’s vs. San Francisco Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Saint Mary’s: -3.5 (-120)
• San Francisco: +3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Saint Mary’s: -198
• San Francisco: +155

Total: 132.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Saint Mary’s vs. San Francisco How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, February 6
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: War Memorial at the Sobrato Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Saint Mary’s Record: 20-3
• San Francisco Record: 18-6

Saint Mary’s vs. San Francisco Key Players to Watch 

Saint Mary’s

Mikey Lewis: The freshman had a standout performance against Gonzaga on Saturday night, scoring 16 points as the team found late buckets to get the signature win. While he has struggled to shoot efficiently, Lewis is a key piece for this Gaels roster looking to breakthrough in the NCAA Tournament. 

San Francisco

Marcus Williams: The veteran guard stepped up in a big way with Malik Thomas out last game. Williams scored 17 points while dishing out seven assists and three steals with six rebounds as well in the team’s blowout win against Washington State last time out. With Thomas’ status still up in the air at the time of this writing, Williams may be thrust into a bigger role again. 

Saint Mary’s vs. San Francisco Prediction and Pick

The status of Thomas is impactful for this matchup, who missed the team’s win over Washington State last time out. However, even if Thomas goes, it’s tough to see the Dons keeping up with the Gaels. 

Saint Mary’s rim running offense was on full display against San Francisco on January 23rd, shooting 66% on twos in the 20-point victory. The Gaels dominated the rebounding battle as well, posting a +12 margin against a fully healthy Dons roster. 

While the location changes, and the Gaels are coming off a resounding victory, I like Saint Mary’s to continue to excel in conference play. 

San Francisco ranks 10th in two-point percentage and opponent free throw rate, which is an issue because the team’s strength is along the perimeter. However, the Gaels motion based offense is reliant on playing inside and dominating at the rim and on the glass, where the Dons are struggling. 

Further, Saint Mary’s defense will run the USF offense off the 3-point line (the Dons lead the conference in 3-point rate) with the league’s lowest opponent 3-point rate. USF gets a ton of its points from the perimeter, nearly 38% of the team’s points come on 3s, but Saint Mary’s shuts off the 3-point line for opponents. 

This matchup is a nightmare for USF, I feel comfortable laying the points. 

PICK: Saint Mary’s -3.5 (available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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