Saints vs. Buccaneers Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 18 (Buccaneers Will Lock Up NFC South)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 3, 2025

The Buccaneers are massive home favorites to the Saints in Week 18. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a chance to clinch the NFC South and a home playoff game if they're able to get past the depleted New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

There were whispers that Derek Carr and some other starters for the Saints would return for the final game of the season, but after they missed practice on Wednesday, that now seems unlikely to happen.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara (groin), QB Derek Carr (hand) and RB Kendre Miller (concussion) did not practice today.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 1, 2025

Let's take a look at the latest odds for this divisional matchup and then I'll predict the game's final score.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Saints +13.5 (-112)
• Buccaneers -13.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Saints +575
• Buccaneers -850

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-110)
• UNDER 43.5 (-110)

The line originally opened at Buccaneers -14, but has since moved down half a point to Bucs -13.5. If Carr and others are able to go, I anticipate the spread to shift rapidly. The total has moved down a point from the original number from 44.5 to 43.5.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I recommended taking the points with the Saints, but that was barring a possibility of Carr and others suiting up. Now that it looks unlikely, the best option may be to back the Buccaneers.

In the first half of the season, the Buccaneers' defense was a real problem for them, but they seemed to have fixed it. Since Week 11, they lead in the NFL in opponent EPA per play. The Saints defense, by comparison, ranks 31st in that time frame.

That's why I'm not only going to back the Buccaneers, but I'm going to take the UNDER as well. If Carr can't go, I can't envision a world where whoever starts at quarterback for the Saints, along with backups at most other offensive positions, will be able to move the ball enough to contribute to this total going over.

Bucs may just win this game in a land slide.

Final score prediction: Saints 6, Buccaneers 28

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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