Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 18

Iain MacMillan | Dec 31, 2024

The Buccaneers are massive home favorites to the Saints in Week 18. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were handed a gift on Sunday night when the Washington Commanders beat the Atlanta Falcons, handing control of the NFC South back to the Bucs.

Now, all they have to do is beat the depleted New Orleans Saints to capture the division and return to the playoffs. Let's take a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this pivotal Week 18 showdown.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Saints +13.5 (-112)
• Buccaneers -13.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Saints +575
• Buccaneers -850

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-110)
• UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Saints vs. Buccaneers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 5
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Saints record: 5-11
• Buccaneers record: 9-7

Saints vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

• Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
• The UNDER is 5-0 in the Saints' last five games
• Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. Buccaneers
• Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games
• Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games played in Tampa Bay
• Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games
• The OVER is 4-1 in the Buccaneers' last five games

Saints vs. Buccaneers Injury Reports

Saints Injury Report

• Alvin Kamara, RB - Questionable
• Derek Carr, QB - Questionable
• Chris Olave, WR - IR-R

Buccaneers Injury Report

• Antoine Winfield Jr., S - Questionable
• Sterling Shepard, WR - Questionable
• Cade Otton, TE - Questionable
• Jamel Dean, CB - Questionable

Saints vs. Buccaneers Key Players to Watch

New Orleans Saints

Spencer Rattler: If Derek Carr can't return this week, the Saints will likely go back to Spencer Rattler. It's clear he's not a starting QB in the NFL, but he has one last chance to prove he can be a career backup, much like Drew Lock did against the Colts in Week 17. Does he have one great game in him?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield: The Buccaneers quarterback may be the most underrated quarterback in the league this season, throwing for the third most passing yards at 4,279 along with 39 touchdowns. His one issue has been interceptions, having thrown 15 this season. If he can fix that issue, the Bucs are going to be a dangerous team for any one to face in the playoffs.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets," I broke down why I'm taking the points with the Saints in Week 18:

This line was at Buccaneers -14 but has since started to move down a point, which tells me some sharps like the Saints at that number. The big reason I'm backing New Orleans in this one is the possibility Derek Carr will suit up. He continues to insist he's going to try to come back if he can and Darren Rizzi has said they'll re-evaluate him this week. Carr ran some game-like situations in practice last week but ultimately was determined he wasn't ready to go.

If he ends up getting the nod for the Saints' final game of the season, we're going to have a great ticket on Saints +13. If he doesn't get the start, then we'll have to hope the Saints can cover an almost two-touchdown spread with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.

Pick: Saints +13.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!