Sam Darnold MVP Odds Continue to Climb After Another Vikings Upset Win

Can Sam Darnold really win the NFL MVP? Its not as crazy as it seems.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Who would’ve thought that the Minnesota Vikings would be one of two undefeated teams in the league through the first four weeks of the season with Sam Darnold leading the way?

Even better, who would’ve thought that Sam Darnold was going to be an MVP candidate this season?

Well, both of those things are true through the first four weeks, as Darnold has dominated for Minnesota, leading it to wins over the New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers while throwing an NFL-leading 11 touchdowns. 

Last week, oddsmakers started to come around to Darnold as an MVP candidate, moving him to +2500 in the odds, but things have changed even more after a Week 4 upset over Green Bay.

Darnold is now in the top five in the odds to win the NFL’s MVP award, behind only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and CJ Stroud. Darnold already has a head-to-head win over Stroud this season despite sitting behind him in the odds.  

Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2024 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Patrick Mahomes: +300
• Josh Allen: +350
• Lamar Jackson: +700
• CJ Stroud: +1000
• Sam Darnold: +1300
• Brock Purdy: +1800
• Joe Burrow: +2200
• Jayden Daniels: +2500
• Jared Goff: +2500
• Jalen Hurts: +2500
• Dak Prescott: +2500
• Baker Mayfield: +3000
• Aaron Rodgers” +3000

Sam Darnold Officially Enters NFL MVP Conversation

At some point, this Darnold start to the season wasn’t going to be considered a fluke, and it appears it took four weeks for Vegas to make that decision.

Darnold is completing 68.9 percent of his passes this season, throwing for 932 yards, a league-best 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The former first-round pick has also shown some skill on the ground, rushing 15 times for 50 yards. 

At +1300, Darnold has an implied probability of 7.14 percent to win the MVP, and it’s hard not to take him seriously in this market with the Vikings leading the NFC through four weeks. 

After struggling with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, Darnold is finally showing why he was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, taking advantage of an elite receiving corps of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor. Not only that, but Darnold could be getting another weapon – tight end TJ Hockenson – back in action soon from the PUP list. 

Through four weeks, there is no quarterback that has overachieved as much as Darnold – and there may not be one with betting passing numbers right now. 

Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Stroud are all expected to contend for playoff spots in the AFC, but that means only one of them can finish with the No. 1 seed. 

That could open the door for Darnold if Minnesota somehow wins the NFC and he keeps this current pace. On this pace, Darnold could flirt with 50 touchdown passes in a 17-game season, which would make him really hard to pass up as the league’s MVP.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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