San Diego State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 11

Reed Wallach | Jan 11, 2025

Nov 17, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New Mexico Lobos guard Donovan Dent (2) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Mountain West stalwarts meet in a high leverage game in league play on Saturday afternoon. 

New Mexico is a modest home favorite against San Diego State as the team looks to build on its undefeated record in Mountain West competition. It’ll be a battle of contrasting styles as San Diego State looks to lean on its elite defense while New Mexico tries to run teams off the floor with transition opportunities. 

Here’s our betting preview for Saturday’ conference showdown. 

San Diego State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• San Diego State: +3.5 (-118)
• New Mexico: -3.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• San Diego State: +130
• New Mexico: -156

Total: 148.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

San Diego State vs. New Mexico How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 11
• Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
• Venue: The Pit
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• San Diego State Record: 10-3
• New Mexico Record: 13-3

San Diego State vs. New Mexico Key Players to Watch

San Diego State

Nick Boyd: The Florida Atlantic transfer has been a welcome scoring boost to the Aztecs roster this season, averaging 13 points per game on 40% shooting from the field, both career highs. He has also added some shot creation as well, averaging nearly four assists.

New Mexico

Donovan Dent: With more reps, Dent has become one of the best scorers in the Mountain West, averaging 19 points per game on nearly 50% shooting from the field while also adding nearly seven assists per game. 

San Diego State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

This game should be an entertaining clash between San Diego State’s defense and New Mexico’s frenetic offense. 

In this game, I’m going to side with both offenses as I’m not sold on New Mexico’s defense being the lockdown unit that its numbers indicate. 

The Lobos defense may be a bit inflated at the moment. The group has allowed at least 70 points to all but one top 100 offense it has faced in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, allowing an average of 77 points in five games. 

While San Diego State is a limited offense, the sheer amount of possessions with New Mexico’s top 10 adjusted tempo should be able to open up opportunities for the likes of Boyd to get this SDSU offense on track. 

Meanwhile, look for Dent and the Lobos offense to thrive in the open court. While the Aztecs do a great job of limiting interior opportunities, New Mexico has plenty of on-ball creation to unpack the SDSU packline. Further, the team is a top 100 three-point shooting team, so the group should be just fine in this matchup. 

PICK: OVER 148.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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