San Diego State vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Four

Reed Wallach | Mar 17, 2025

Mar 14, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) brings the ball up court against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

North Carolina and San Diego State meet in the First Four on Tuesday night with the winner moving on to face Ole Miss in the South Region first round. 

Two teams that are used to NCAA Tournament success narrowly made the field of 68 of the NCAA Tournament, needing to win a play-in game to advance to the official tournament. It’s been a down year in particular for North Carolina, but can the team thrive in a tournament setting to get past San Diego State? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

San Diego State vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• San Diego State: +3.5 (-105)
• North Carolina: -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• San Diego State: +150
• North Carolina: -182

Total: 142.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

San Diego State vs. North Carolina How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, March 18th
• Game Time: 9:10 PM EST
• Venue: UD Arena
• How to Watch (TV): truTV
• San Diego State: 21-9
• North Carolina Record: 22-13

San Diego State vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch

San Diego State 

Nick Boyd: Pressure will be on the Florida Atlantic transfer to show up against a potent North Carolina offense. While he has struggled to maintain his three-point shooting in a more on-ball role for the Aztecs, Boyd shot only 28% from beyond the arc in Mountain West play; he did score 15 or more in eight of his last nine games to finish the season. 

North Carolina

RJ Davis: It’s the last run for RJ Davis in the NCAA Tournament, who will look to build on a strong end of the season that had North Carolina playing its best ball down the stretch. The senior guard is averaging north of 16 points per game since the start of February. 

San Diego State vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

The Tar Heels three-point shooting may prove pivotal in this game as San Diego State’s offense lacks the firepower to keep up with the current form of this North Carolina team. 

UNC has been shooting 42% from beyond the arc over the last month and change that has sparked an 8-2 finish to the regular season. The team remains a sound ball handling unit, but it’s been the rise from three-point range that makes me bullish about the team’s chances of winning this one. 

San Diego State’s pack-line defense allows three-point shots at the 10th highest rate in the league, but against a sweet shooting team it may be problematic considering the Aztecs are shot on offensive playmaking, 182nd in effective field goal percentage and also an incredibly poor free throw shooting team (66%, 334th in the country). 

North Carolina’s defense has been sound all season, but its offense makes me confident it can get margin on San Diego State in the First Four and cover the spread.

PICK: North Carolina -3.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.