SEC College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season

Reed Wallach | Jul 24, 2024

Jan 1, 2024; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) looks to pass in the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The best conference in college football got better.

The new-look SEC will welcome Texas and Oklahoma, but there are plenty of household names contending for the crown, including Alabama who ushers in the post-Nick Saban era and a revamped Tennessee roster. However, all teams, new and old are chasing Georiga, who will look to make good on a National Championship after losing in the SEC title game a year ago.

Here's a win total over and under I'm betting in the SEC as well as a dark horse to win the SEC Championship and who is the best bet to win it all.

For more on the SEC check out the win totals for each team here as well as each team’s conference championship odds. 

SEC Conference Preview and Best Bets

Alabama Under 9.5 Wins (-130, Caesars Sportsbook)

new-lookThe new look Crimson Tide are still viewed as a contender in the SEC and in the expanded College Football Playoff picture, but I think it's fair to be skeptical given the turnover on the roster and along with the coaching staff. 

Of course, Nick Saban retired after last season’s National Semifinal appearance, paving the way for Washington’s Kalen DeBoer to fill his shoes in Tuscaloosa. 

While Jalen Milroe returns at quarterback, the team needs to overhaul nearly its entire defense and implement a new system that fits more around DeBoer’s philosophy. 

Milroe is not Michael Penix Jr., and the Crimson Tide pass-catching group doesn’t have three NFL-caliber wide receivers available. I believe the offense can have some serious growing pains behind an offensive line that was suspect at best last season. 

Part of the fact that the Crimson Tide allowed 39 sacks last regular season (115th in the country) was due to Milroe’s propensity to hold onto the ball and extend plays with his play. 

This boom-or-bust mentality will not hold up in DeBoer’s offense that has far more structure, and I’m not sure the pieces are in place to run his preferred offense. For reference, Penix averaged 2.68 seconds to throw last season, an average 68th in the country while Milroe posted a mark of 3.44, 177th of 178 quarterbacks that had 100 or more pass attempts. 

Milroe made a ton happen, though, a proven talent at the SEC level and will have nearly a full season of experience under his belt. He made 24 big-time throws to zero turnover-worthy plays last season on throws of 20 or more yards, an impressive feat. While I believe some regression can be in store for him in a new system, I will note that there is a ton of big play ability with him on the field. 

While the team landed highly touted transfer wide receiver Germie Bernand, the team has no player at wideout who had more than 30 targets last season. 

On defense, a unit that was 27th in EPA/Play on defense and 19th in yards per play allowed needs to replace more than two-thirds of the defense (118th in returning production), including three NFL Draft picks and Freshman All-American Caleb Downs. 

There’s no denying the talent on hand for the Crimson Tide, but there are a lot of moving pieces for this team to get to double-digit wins, and we are getting a decent price to go under. 

The team hosts Georgia and Missouri this season while also traveling to face Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma (who gets a bye the week before). I believe there is more downside than upside with this team given the changes, and I envision the Crimson Tide falling short of the CFP like it's become accustomed to under Saban.

Kentucky Over 6.5 Wins (-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Wildcats continue to be firmly in the middle of the SEC, and I don’t expect much to change this season. 

Under Mark Stoops, UK has won seven more games in eight of his 11 seasons in Lexington. After going 7-6 last season, I expect the team to not take a step back, playing better than that mark or right at the same given a difficult schedule. 

The Wildcats struckout on Devin Leary last season, as the veteran NC State transfer didn’t fully recover from shoulder surgery to be effective, but the team still ranked top 50 in EPA/Play with explosive playmakers littered around the roster, namely Barion Brown, who returns this season with a talented wide receiver room. 

This year’s stab at a transfer quarterback is former five-star Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff, who lost the QB battle to Carson Beck last season. He’ll look to push this offense up the national ranks with new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan. 

The defense should be loaded this season, ranking 11th in returning production, and added the likes of Jamon Dumas-Johnson from Georgia at linebacker. With an elite pass rush that features the likes of Deon Walker (eight sacks, 37 hurries last season), this defense should be on the rise from its national average EPA/Play mark. 

While UK may not have SEC title game upside, I don’t see the team going backward with the firepower on hand. The team will need to face Georgia, Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas, but the team should be clear favorites in every other matchup with its closest matchup likely being home against Auburn in Week 9. 

I’m playing into the modest upside of Kentucky. Seven wins again is likely on the way.

SEC Championship Dark Horse Bet: Tennessee (+1800, FD)

In 2022, Josh Heupel taped into a big-bodied quarterback with a cannon for an arm who was able to extend plays and unlock his ideal frenetic offense. The team was a late season injury to quarterback Hendon Hooker away from contending for an SEC title, but this season is the culmination of that arc with former five-star quarterback recruit Nico Iamaleava. 

After the offense failed to develop with Joe Milton under center, Heupel has his prized recruit ready to step in and lead the offense with an offensive line that returns five starters and a pass-catching group that returns Bru McCoy from injury as well Tulane deep ball threat Chris Brazzell II. 

The offense should be able to cook and Iamaleava can quickly find himself in the Heisman conversation, similar to Hooker, with Heupel’s ability to build an offense that can score in bunches. 

What makes me buy into the upside of this team as an SEC (and CFP) contender is its defense. 

Led by future top-10 pick James Pearce Jr., who had 13 sacks as a sophomore last season, the Vols defense can continue its development under Tim Banks. Despite a fast-paced offense potentially putting the defense in difficult situations, the team ranked 20th in EPA/Play and 46th in havoc rate. The defense has improved year-over-year, and with Pearce back I believe the floor is incredibly high for this unit. 

If there is a concern, it is in the secondary where the unit is relying on a lot of Group of Five transfers, but with a stout pass rush, that can maybe mask some concerns for this team.

As well, the schedule is quite favorable in a crowded SEC.

Yes, Iamaleava’s first true road game will be Oklahoma’s SEC home opener, but the team draws rival Florida and Alabama at home. Outside of OU and Alabama, the team will be favored in every SEC game by more than a touchdown before Week 12 at Georgia in a potential title game preview. 

At +1800, there are few teams with the upside that Tennessee has, and also a relatively straightforward path that includes winning at OU and home against Alabama to have this bet live into November. 

SEC Championship Best Bet: Georgia (+200, DraftKings Sportsbook)

No, Georgia didn’t three-peat in 2023, something that hasn’t happened since the 1930s, but few argue that this team was at worst the second-best in the country last season. 

With an offense that has a future No. 1 pick under center in Carson Beck for a second season, and a skill position group that has plenty of talent in place to step into the role that NFL players left – including, but not limited to, Florida transfer Trevor Etienne at running back and returning pass catchers like Ra-Ra Thomas and Dominic Lovett – the Bulldogs O is likely to be better in 2024. 

Overall, the offense that ranked top five in key metrics like EPA/Play, points per drive, and yards per play ranks 23rd in returning production.

On defense, there may not be the star power that title teams have had in the past, but there are plenty of contributors back that give this Bulldogs D more continuity than usual. The team is right around the national average in RP and has future pros like Mykel Williams on the defensive line and Smael Mondon Jr. at LB. 

While the depth of the SEC is at its best, I don’t see a team that is better than Georgia entering 2024. Of course, a more difficult schedule will be challenging and maybe the team may lose its first regular season game since 2020, but this team is still the bet to be at the SEC Championship Game as the favorite yet again. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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