Serbia vs. Team USA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Olympic Basketball Semifinals

Can Team USA pick up a third win this summer against Nikola Jokic and Serbia?

United States guard Kevin Durant (7) and guard Anthony Edwards. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

For the third time this summer, Team USA will face Nikola Jokic and Serbia, this time with a chance to advance to the gold medal game in 5x5 Men’s Basketball at the 2024 Olympics. 

Team USA handled Serbia in the group stage and in an exhibition game earlier this summer, but there’s a lot more on the line on Thursday afternoon. 

Serbia knocked off Australia 95-90 on Tuesday in the quarterfinals, but the Americans will be a much tougher test – as shown by the odds with Serbia set as a 16-point underdog. 

Even though Team USA is widely expected to win the gold medal (sitting at -700 in the futures market), running into NBA MVP Nikola Jokic in the semifinals isn’t exactly an ideal pairing. 

This is not only the third time that Team USA will need to beat Serbia in a month, but these teams also played an even 81-81 game in the 30:45 that Jokic played in the group stage of these Olympics. 

When he was out? Well, Team USA won those minutes 29-3. 

Does that change on Thursday, or does Jokic simply play the entire game?

Here’s a look at the odds, my best bet and two key players to watch for this semifinal clash in the 2024 Olympics. 

Serbia vs. Team USA Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Serbia +16 (-108)
• Team USA -16 (-112)

Moneyline

• Serbia: +850
• Team USA: -1450

Total

• 187.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Serbia vs. Team USA How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Aug. 8
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bercy Arena
• How to Watch (TV): NBC, USA, Peacock
• Serbia record: 3-1
• Team USA record: 4-0

Serbia vs. Team USA Key Players to Watch

Serbia

Nikol Jokic: In the meeting between these teams in the group stage, Jokic played in 30:45 and the two teams were even in the game. In the 9:15 he sat? Serbia was outscored 29-3. Jokic will need to be on the floor as much as possible for Serbia to hang around, and he did put up 20 points, five boards, eight dimes and four steals in the loss to the Americans earlier in these Olympics. 

Team USA

Kevin Durant: Durant put on a show against Serbia in the group stage, scoring 23 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field. He brokeLisa Leslie’s record for the most points in American Olympic history on Tuesday and has been dominant off the bench for Team USA in four games. 

Serbia vs. Team USA Prediction and Pick

So far in these Olympics, Team USA has yet to win a game by fewer than 17 points, so oddsmakers are expecting this to be the closest matchup LeBron James, Stephen Curry and company have faced yet. 

While I think that makes sense, especially since Jokic is the best player in the world, I can’t help but back the Americans at this number on Thursday. 

Not only did Team USA dominate Serbia when Jokic was on the bench in the group state, but it seemed to find a new gear in the quarterfinals against Brazil on Tuesday, winning by an Olympic-high 35 points.

Even though point differential no longer matters, Team USA left nothing to chance on Tuesday, and six different players finished in double figures in the win. 

The key for the Americans is their bench – Durant and Anthony Edwards have been unstoppable this summer – and I don’t think Serbia can survive more than a couple minutes of Jokic being out of the game. Even though the league MVP had 20 points, five boards, eight dimes and four steals in the pool play matchup, Serbia’s supporting cast let him down in a big way. 

It’s not easy to beat a team three times, but the Americans also can make some adjustments from their original game plan against Serbia. 

As good as Jokic is, Team USA has far more talent and should win this game fairly easily. 

Pick: Team USA -16 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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