Shota Imanaga Rookie of the Year Odds Collapse After Outing vs. Mets, Paul Skenes Now Favored

Shota Imanaga's bad start against the Mets on Friday has caused a significant shift in the odds to win National League Rookie of the Year.

Jun 15, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) reacts after he delivers a pitch during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The race for the National League Rookie of the Year is going to be a tight one and we just saw the latest development on Friday afternoon.

Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs was the +100 favorite to win the award at BetMGM Sportsbook as recent as Monday, but an ugly performance against the red-hot New York Mets has caused a massive shift in the odds.

Let's take a look at where they stand now over at BetMGM.

National League Rookie of the Year Odds

• Paul Skenes -125
• Jackson Merrill +350
• Shota Imanaga +350
• Joey Ortiz +1100
• Masyn Winn +2500
• Jared Jones +2500
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto +3500
• Gavin Stone +4000

Shota Imanaga's Odds Fall After Mets Disaster

After being set as the +100 favorite earlier this week, Imanaga's odds have fallen to +350 after a single bad performance against the Mets. If you translate those odds to implied probability, his chances of winning the award fell from 50% to 22.22%, a change of 27.78%.

The 30-year-old rookie allowed 11 hits and 10 earned runs in just 3.0 innings against the Mets on Friday, which caused his season-long ERA to increase from 1.89 to 2.96, a change of more than an entire run.

This is his second blowup start of the season. He allowed seven earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Brewers on May 29, which caused his ERA at the time to increase from 0.84 to 1.86.

Paul Skenes Set as New Betting Favorite to Win NL ROY

With the Cubs' rookie falling down the odds list, Paul Skenes is now set as the new favorite to win the award at -125 odds. He was second on the odds list to Imanaga earlier this week at +125. Translated to implied probability, his chances of winning the award have improved from 44.44% to 55.56%.

The Pirates' rookie sports a stellar 2.29 across his first seven starts in the Majors while striking out an eye-popping 12.1 batters per nine innings.

We still have over half a season to go, but the LSU product is now in the driver's seat to be the first Pirate to win Rookie of the Year since Jason Bay in 2004.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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