SMU vs. Penn State Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | 5 Hours Ago

Dec 7, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) looks downfield against the Oregon Ducks against the Oregon Ducks in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

SMU will travel to Happy Valley to face Penn State in the College Football Playoff first round against the Nittany Lions. 

The Mustangs got into the 12-team postseason despite losing in the ACC Championship Game in the final seconds against Clemson, but can we take some of the results from that game to help us make a bet in this one? 

Penn State will be the best team SMU has faced this season, can the Nittany Lions cash in as a considerable favorite and use its edge in the trenches to advance to the quarterfinals for a date with Boise State?

Here’s the updated betting odds and final score prediction. 

SMU vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• SMU: +8.5 (-108)
• Penn State: -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• SMU: +250
• Penn State: -315

Total: 54.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

SMU vs. Penn State Final Score Prediction

SMU may struggle with the step up in class to face the vaunted Penn State defensive line, which will be the toughest pass rush the team has seen this season. 

The team faces an even tougher pass rush in Penn State, which is No. 7 in pass rush grading per Pro Football Focus. The Nittany Lions are led by defensive end Abdul Carter and should be able to win in the trenches against what is an out-matched SMU offensive line. 

As noted in our betting preview above, the Penn State defensive line should flush SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings out of the pocket and cause havoc in the backfield that can stunt drives. 

Meanwhile, the SMU defense has been elite against the run, but this is an elite and diverse Penn State attack that is starting to show life in the passing game outside of just Tyler Warren with Drew Allar beginning to work in other pieces in the skill position group, which is the vulnerable point of the SMU defense. 

While the Mustangs' defense has been elite against the run all season, top five in EPA/Rush, I do believe some of that is aided by its schedule of opponents. The Nittany Lions will have far and away the best rush offense the ‘Stangs have seen, averaging more than five yards per carry and an offensive line that is top 25 in both tackles for loss allowed and line yards. 

With a successful run game, I believe that can set up timely deep shots for Allar and the Nittany Lions, who should be able to find holes in the SMU secondary, which is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate allowed. 

I believe Penn State has a level that SMU will struggle to get to on the road with its ability to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball and get a routine cover. 

Overall, Penn State is a cut above SMU and should be able to take control of this one from the jump at home. The Mustangs may hit a few big plays, especially in garbage time, but this should be a ho-hum Nittany Lions win.

Final Score Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 21

More College Football Stories

manual

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.