SMU vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | Dec 16, 2024

Dec 7, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) runs for a gain during the first quarter against the Oregon Ducks in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

SMU travels to Happy Valley to face Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoffs.

The Mustangs enjoyed a strong season in its first in the ACC but lost the conference title game in the final seconds against Clemson. The team will take on another conference runner-up in Penn State, who lost to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, but have only lost to top 10 teams in the Ducks and Ohio State.

Do the Mustangs have the level to outperform the Nittany Lions on the road?

Let’s break it down below!

SMU vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

SMU: +8.5 (-108)
Penn State: -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

SMU: +255
Penn State: -320

Total: 53.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

SMU vs. Penn State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, December 21st
Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Beaver Stadium
How to Watch (TV): TNT/MAX

SMU vs. Penn State Key Players to Watch

SMU

Kevin Jennings: Jennings got off to a slow start against Clemson with some shaky decision-making, but he was the catalyst for the team’s near-double-digit fourth-quarter comeback in the ACC title game. Jennings has a lively arm and is a dynamic playmaker. Can he cause chaos against the Nittany Lions' vaunted pass rush? He passed for 3,050 yards with 27 total touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Penn State

Drew Allar: The Penn State signal-caller has shown flashes at times as offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki has utilized his lively arm well this season. Allar has been precise with his decision-making for most of this season as the leader of a top 15 offense in most key metrics like EPA/Play and points per drive. Overall, Allar has totaled 27 touchdowns with a 69% completion percentage.

SMU vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

While SMU shook off some turnovers early against Clemson, I do believe that it’s notable that the Mustangs struggled with the pass rush of the Tigers for much of that game as Jennings was flushed out of the pocket often.

The team faces an even tougher pass rush in Penn State, which is No. 7 in pass rush grading per Pro Football Focus. The Nittany Lions are led by defensive end Abdul Carter and should be able to win in the trenches against what is an out-matched SMU offensive line.

While the Mustangs may be able to hit some downfield passes, I do believe the team will struggle to sustain drives on the road in what may be a cold, winter afternoon in Happy Valley.

The SMU offense will need to hit on a handful of explosive plays and pounce on turnovers to set up short fields to generate enough scoring chances against the Penn State offense.

While the Mustangs' defense has been elite against the run all season, top five in EPA/Rush, I do believe some of that is aided by its schedule of opponents. The Nittany Lions will have far and away the best rush offense the ‘Stangs have seen, averaging more than five yards per carry and an offensive line that is top 25 in both tackles for loss allowed and line yards.

With a successful run game, I believe that can set up timely deep shots for Allar and the Nittany Lions, who should be able to find holes in the SMU secondary, which is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate allowed.

I believe Penn State has a level that SMU will struggle to get to on the road with its ability to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball and get a routine cover.

PICK: Penn State -8.5

SMU vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

SMU vs. Penn State How to Watch

SMU vs. Penn State Key Players to Watch

SMU

Penn State

SMU vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

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