South Florida vs San Jose State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Hawai'i Bowl

Reed Wallach | 10 Hours Ago

Nov 16, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; San Jose State Spartans wide receiver Nick Nash (3) reacts after making a catch for a first down against the Boise State Broncos in the third quarter at CEFCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Spend Christmas Eve in Honolulu with the Hawai’i Bowl!

South Florida will take the cross country flight to Honolulu to face off against San Jose State in the 2024 Hawai’i Bowl, pitting two fast pace and offensive-minded teams in the lone bowl game on the night before Christmas.

South Florida had lofty goals of competing in the AAC this season, but fell short of those goals before rallying late in the year to make a bowl game. Meanwhile, San Jose State was far more competitive than expectations under first year head coach Ken Niumatalolo and will look to cap the season off with a win.

Here’s how to bet on the 2024 Hawai’i Bowl.

South Florida vs. San Jose State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

South Florida: +2.5 (-102)
San Jose State: -2.5 (-120)

Moneyline

South Florida: +115
San Jose State: -138

Total: 62.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

South Florida vs. San Jose State How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, December 24
Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
South Florida Record: 6-6
San Jose State Record: 7-5

South Florida vs. San Jose State Key Players to Watch

South Florida

Bryce Archie: The junior stepped in for the injured Byrum Brown to finish the season under center for the Bulls and showcased both a high ceiling and a low floor as the team went 4-3 in seven games started by him. Overall, Archie passed for 1,679 yards with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions as the fast-paced offense scored 28 or more in five of seven starts.

San Jose State

Nick Nash: The nation’s leading receiver with 1,382 yards on 104 catches, 16 of which went for touchdowns, will look to cap his career in style with a bowl game win. The converted quarterback has been a monster all season and will face a USF defense that is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense, which should make for a strong matchup to have a big final game.

South Florida vs. San Jose State Prediction and Pick

I believe there is an avenue to both teams putting up points in this bowl game with each team playing at top 21 paces in terms of seconds per play and each offense having a distinct advantage over the opposing defense.

For San Jose State, who passes the ball at a higher rate than any other team in the country, the Spartans should enjoy an edge in the passing game against a lackluster South Florida pass defense. The Bulls are 86th in EPA/Pass nationally and outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate allowed.

The team loves to send pressure, which can lead to a lot of busted coverages given that the SJSU offense has been elite in pass protection, top 10 in sacks allowed on the season to help facilitate a top 30 passing game in terms of EPA/Pass.

Meanwhile, second year head coach Alex Golesh has his team playing at the fastest tempo in the country, which can cause a bit of a shock to the Spartans system on defense. The team’s rush numbers look solid on paper, but the team has been aided by an easy strength of schedule all season. Looking further, the team is outside the top 100 in both tackling and rush defense, per Pro Football Focus, so I expect plenty of holes for the Bulls to run through.

USF is a bit hit or miss on offense, but when it clicks it's going for big plays. The Bulls are top five in the country in explosive rush rate and 55th in explosive pass rate.

Overall, I see a fun back-and-forth affair with plenty of points on the board out on the island. Give me the over.

PICK: OVER 62.5