Spurs vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Christmas Day

The Knicks are favored at home to pick up a second straight win on Christmas.

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is a solid prop target on Christmas Day. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The NBA’s Christmas action begins in the Big Apple at 12 p.m. EST as the New York Knicks look to make it back-to-back seasons with a Christmas Day win when they host the San Antonio Spurs and phenom Victor Wembanyama at Madison Square Garden.

The Spurs are off to a strong start in the 2024-25 season, sitting one game over .500 through their first 29 contests. They could find themselves in the mix for a playoff spot when the season comes to an end, but right now they hold the No. 9 seed in the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, New York has been on fire as of late, moving to 19-10 on the season by winning eight of its last 10 games – and four straight – including a win over the Toronto Raptors at home on Monday.

Oddsmakers have favored Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks, but the Spurs aren’t going to be a pushover. Last season, the final time these teams met, Wemby had a 40-point game and Brunson scored 61. 

Will we get more fireworks on Christmas Day? 

Here’s a full breakdown of this matchup, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Spurs vs. Knicks. 

Spurs vs. Knicks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Spurs +9 (-110)
• Knicks -9 (-110)

Moneyline

• Spurs: +300
• Knicks: -380

Total

• 223.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Spurs vs. Knicks How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
• Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Madison Square Garden
• How to Watch (TV): ABC/ESPN
• Spurs record: 15-14
• Knicks record: 19-10

Spurs vs. Knicks Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

• None to report

Knicks Injury Report

• Boo Buie III – out
• Mitchell Robinson – out
• Kevin McCullar Jr. – out

Spurs vs. Knicks Best NBA Prop Bets

San Antonio Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

• Victor Wembanyama OVER 24.5 Points (-120)

This is the first of likely many, many times that we’ll see Wemby on Christmas, and the Spurs big man enters this game on a massive hot streak. 

After dropping 26 points in Monday’s loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, Wembanyama has scored 25 or more points in 11 of his last 15 games, pushing his season average to 24.8 points per game. The former No. 1 overall pick can do it all on offense, and he’s shooting a solid 47.7 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from 3. 

Wemby has a crazy usage rate of 31.4 percent this season, and he’s taking 18.4 shots (including 9.3 3-point attempts) per game. With that usage, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him clear this total against New York. Last season, Wemby had a 40-point game in a win over New York. 

New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)

With the Knicks displaying a more balanced offense this season, Jalen Brunson’s shot volume has fluctuated on a night-to-night basis.

However, he’s shooting the 3-ball insanely well (43.4 percent from deep) entering this Christmas Day matchup. Last season, Brunson had a 61-point game against the Spurs, and he also played great on Christmas, scoring 38 points in a win over the Milwaukee Bucks.

I’m eyeing Brunson’s 3-point prop after he struggled on Monday, shooting 0-for-5 from beyond the arc.

Over his last 19 games, Brunson has made three or more shots from deep in 12 of them, shooting 45.4 percent from 3 on 6.8 attempts per game over that stretch. San Antonio is in the middle of the pack (15th) in opponent 3-pointers allowed this season, and I think Brunson bounces back from a bad shooting game on Monday. 

Spurs vs. Knicks Prediction and Pick

The Spurs covered the spread for just the third time this season as a road underdog on Monday night, losing by five to the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center.

San Antonio is 3-5 ATS as a road dog, but it has posted an average margin of -11.3 in those games.

This is a tough road matchup against a Knicks team that is 9-4 straight up at home and 7-5-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

The Knicks keep getting healthier, as they’ve added Landry Shamet back to their roster, and Tom Thibodeau’s squad is peaking right now, ranking No. 3 in offensive rating, No. 4 in defensive rating and No. 3 in net rating over its last 10 games.

Over that same stretch, the Spurs are just 17th in the NBA in net rating.

While Wembanyama poses a major defensive concern for the Knicks without Mitchell Robinson, San Antonio has not been great on the road, ranking 23rd in the NBA in road net rating. 

Given the Knicks’ recent play, I’m willing to lay the points at the Garden. 

Pick: Knicks -9 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.