Spurs vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Thursday, Oct. 24

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the San Antonio Spurs-Dallas Mavericks matchup on Thursday night.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama make their season debuts on Thursday night, as the Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs. 

Dallas made the NBA Finals last season – losing to the Boston Celtics – and it made a major move in the offseason to add veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson in a sign-and-trade with the Golden State Warriors.

Dallas took off last season after adding P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the deadline, and it hopes to find itself back in the mix for a top seed in the Western Conference this season.

San Antonio also made some moves in the offseason, adding veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes – as well as No. 4 overall pick Stephon Castle – around Wemby. 

One of the worst teams in the league last season, the Spurs are projected to be in the play-in tournament mix with a win total at 36.5. 

Does Wembanyama – the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player – take the massive second-year leap that many are projecting?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Thursday’s season opener for these two Western Conference squads. 

Spurs vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Spurs +7.5 (-112)
• Mavericks -7.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Spurs: +240
• Mavericks: -298

Total

• 229.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Spurs vs. Mavericks How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 24
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Airlines Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Spurs record: 0-0
• Mavericks record: 0-0

Spurs vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

• Devin Vassell – out

Mavericks Injury Report

• Kessler Edwards – out
• Dante Exum – out
• Brandon Williams – out

Spurs vs. Mavericks Key Players to Watch

San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama: The reigning Rookie of the Year, Wembanyama averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.6 blocks per game (led the NBA) in the 2023-24 season. Part of last season, Wemby was on a minutes restriction, so what will he do without one this season? Oddsmakers have set his PRA (points, rebounds and assists) prop at 41.5 on Thursday. 

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Last season, Doncic finished third in the league MVP voting, won a scoring title and took the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals. What’s next? Luka is the favorite to win MVP at some books, and he should be in line for a big offensive season now that Klay Thompson is also flanking him on the wing. 

Spurs vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

There are plenty of ways to bet on this game, but there’s a ton of new faces on both rosters – so I’m instead leaning with a prop bet on Thursday. 

Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer last season, has a points prop of 29.5 against San Antonio, and I think he’s massively undervalued.

Yes, the Spurs had a solid defense when Wemby was on the floor, but they ended up just 21st overall in defensive rating in the 2023-24 season. 

Now, Doncic gets a chance to attack this defense with more offense in the starting lineup now that Thompson is in the fold. 

Maybe that leads to Luka passing the ball more, but let’s not forget that he’s averaged 32.4 and 33.9 points per game over the last two seasons. 

Luka took a career-high 23.6 shots per game, bumping his 3-point attempts from 8.2 to 10.6 per game from the 2022-23 season to the 2023-24 season. 

If the usage stays the same for Luka – and it should – I think he’s undervalued if this prop is anywhere below 30.5. 

Pick: Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.