Steelers vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 10 (Pittsburgh Wins a Low-Scoring Affair)

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

Oct 28, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scrambles against the New York Giants during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders will face-off in Week 10 in a matchup between two teams who were surprisingly impressive in the first half of the 2024 campaign.

Both teams have just two losses on the season with the Steelers sitting at 6-2 and the Commanders at 7-2. Both teams enter Week 10 with a slight half-game lead in their respective divisions, making a win this week significant in the standings moving forward.

Let's take a look at how the odds have shifted for this game throughout the week and then I'll predict what the final score will be.

Steelers vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Steelers +2.5 (-104)
• Commanders -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Steelers +124
• Commanders -146

Total

• OVER 45.5 (-105)
• UNDER 45.5 (-110)

The line has shifted slightly toward the Steelers. The Commanders opened as 3-point favorites but the spread has moved half a point down to Commanders -2.5. The total for the game has also decreased by half a point from 46.0 to 45.5.

Steelers vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction

I broke down in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets" why I'm looking at the total in this interconference showdown:

In a game between two teams who I believe are overperforming this season, I'm going to take the UNDER. There has been a repeated belief, one which I've admittedly fallen for, that the Commanders' defense is one of the worst in the NFL when in fact, they've improved throughout the season and rank inside the top 15 in most metrics since Week 6. The total in this game indicates their defense is still a bottom-10 unit and I don't think that's true any longer.

Offensively, Washington is going to see some regression. They have only played one team this season whose defense ranks inside the top 15 in EPA. That team was the Bears and the Commanders were only able to score 18 points, their fewest of the season. Now, they play the Steelers who are sixth in opponent EPA per play and 10th in opponent success rate.

I think we're going to see more of a defensive battle than people expect. Give me the UNDER.

When it comes to which side is going to win this game, I'm going to back the Steelers. Russell Wilson has looked much better in his two starts with the Steelers than he did his entire time with the Broncos, which is great news for the Steelers. The Commanders, based on their defense and their schedule thus far, seem like a much more likely candidate for regression than Pittsburgh.

Final score prediction: Steelers 21, Commanders 16

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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