Steelers vs. Ravens Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Can Pittsburgh Cover?)

The Steelers are an impressive 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Can they cover again on Saturday?

The Steelers are an impressive 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

The AFC North division race heats up on Saturday, Dec. 21 as the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers for their second and final meeting between these teams this season.

Pittsburgh currently has a one-game lead in the division, and it already beat the Ravens at home (18-16) earlier this season.

However, oddsmakers have Lamar Jackson and company favored by six points in this matchup after the Steelers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15. Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled as of late, with Russell Wilson failing to reach 200 passing yards in back-to-back weeks – which coincided with George Pickens being out with a hamstring injury.

Since this is a standalone game, it’s going to be a fun one to bet for NFL fans on Saturday. Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup – and dish out some advice about how to bet on this matchup along the way. 

Steelers vs. Ravens Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Steelers +6 (-108)
• Ravens -6 (-112)

Moneyline

• Steelers: +230
• Ravens: -285

Total

• 44.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mike Tomlin is 62-36-5 ATS as an underdog – the best mark in the NFL since 2007, and the Steelers have the second-best ATS record in the NFL this season (10-4) while going 5-1 ATS as underdogs. 

The Ravens are just 2-3-1 ATS as home favorites, but they have hit the OVER in 11 of their 14 games. 

Steelers vs. Ravens Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he’d take the Ravens to win and cover in this game in his Road to 272 bets – where he picks every game, every week: 

In the first half of the season, I was betting against the Ravens due to significant issues they were having with their defense, specifically their secondary. Now, we're seeing those signs are starting to be fixed which means it could be a great time to invest in Baltimore.

From Week 1 - Week 10, the Ravens ranked 30th in opponent dropback EPA and 23rd in opponent dropback success rate. Since Week 11 they've ranked fifth and second in those two metrics, which is a huge step forward for a team that seemingly has no other holes.

The Ravens now enter Week 16 leading the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, which is +0.5 yards better than the next best team. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, comes in at 22nd in that stat and is starting to get exposed for not being as good as their record might indicate.

While the Ravens have been playing well as of late, this matchup is one that has been close for several seasons. Pittsburgh has won the last four meetings between these teams, and every matchup dating back to Nov. 2020 has been decided by seven or fewer points on either side. 

I do agree with MacMillan that the Ravens will win this game – especially at home – but I’m not sold on laying the points here given how great Mike Tomlin’s team has been at covering the spread as an underdog. By giving the Steelers nearly a touchdown cushion, I think they’re the bet to make this week. 

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 23

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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