Storm vs. Aces Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

Should we bet on A'ja Wilson on Sunday?

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson. / Grace Smith/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The late-night matchup in the WNBA playoffs takes place in Las Vegas, as the back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces begin their title defense against the Seattle Storm. 

Seattle won the first meeting between these teams in the regular season, but the Aces took the last three meetings, earning the No. 4 seed over the Storm in the process. 

One key storyline to watch in this game is the status of Storm forward/center Ezi Magbegor, who has missed the last few games with a concussion. If she sits, it would be a massive blow to the Seattle frontcourt. Magbegor is averaging 11.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game this season. 

The Aces have the championship pedigree, and the league MVP in A’ja Wilson, to make some noise this postseason, and oddsmakers have them favored by eight points in Sunday night’s matchup.

In the four meetings between these teams in the regular season, Las Vegas had two wins by double digits and one by five points.

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1 of the Storm-Aces series. 

Storm vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Storm +8 (-110)
• Aces -8 (-110)

Moneyline

• Storm: +300
• Aces: -380

Total

• 162.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Storm vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 22
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Storm vs. Aces Injury Reports

Storm Injury Report

• Ezi Magbegor – questionable, concussion

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Storm vs. Aces Key Players to Watch

Seattle Storm

Skylar Diggins-Smith: Since the Olympic break, Diggins-Smith has simply been one of the best guards in the WNBA. She averaged 18.5 points, 6.3 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game while shooting 47.6 percent from the field over the last 15 games of the regular season. The star guard had 17 points and nine dimes in her final meeting with the Aces in the regular season.

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson: Awarded the WNBA MVP award on Sunday, Wilson finished the regular season averaging 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. She scored 21 or more points in all four of her meetings with Seattle in 2024. Could we bet on an A’ja Wilson prop? Stay tuned. 

Storm vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

When it comes to a side in this matchup, I lean with the defending champs, but I don’t think that is the best bet you can place in this matchup.

No, the best bet you can place is one the insane value that is Wilson’s points prop. 

I mean, are we serious with this line (25.5) for Wilson?

The 2024 league MVP is averaging 26.9 points per game this season, scoring 21, 24, 27 and 29 against the Storm in four games.

If Ezi Magbegor ends up sitting in this game, that’s a major blow to the Storm’s frontcourt defense, and it should help Wilson score at a high level. 

In 38 games during the regular season, Wilson scored 26 or more points 25 times, meaning she hit the OVER on this line over 65 percent of the time.

Seattle finished the regular season allowing the third most points in the paint per game, and it was just seventh in defensive rating over its final 15 games.

Wilson is going to roll at home in Game 1. 

Pick: A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-120)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.