Sun Belt College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season

Reed Wallach | Jul 29, 2024

Sep 2, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas State Bobcats running back Ismail Mahdi (21) goes in for the 10-yard touchdown catch Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

The Sun Belt has become arguably the best conference in the Group of Five ranks, but with some turnover amongst coaching staffs and rosters, there may be some new names at the top of the league.

Appalachian State is a stalwart of the league, set to overtake two-time league champ Troy as the Sun Belt's best team, but Texas State is set to continue its meteoric rise under head coach GJ Kinne. Will it lead to a Sun Belt title in his second season?

Below, you'll find two win total bets to key in on, one over and under, as well as a dark horse in a revamped Sun Belt and the pick to win it all.

For more on the Sun Belt check out the win totals for each team here as well as each team’s conference championship odds. 

Louisiana Over 7.5 Wins (-134, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Louisiana had a rough season last year with injuries up and down the roster, namely at quarterback with three quarterbacks making at least 50 pass attempts, and still managed to scrape together a 6-6 regular season. 

This season, the Ragin’ Cajun ranks 15th in ESPN’s returning production and should get on the better end of variance-driven things. The team went 2-4 in one score despite a handful of injuries up and down the roster and now should be set to be on the right side of it. 

Louisiana’s offense was still elite for Group of Five standards last season, 37th in EPA/Play with a sturdy offensive line and a run game that was top 20 in yards per carry (over five yards per carry). The team needs to replace lead running back Jacob Kibodi, but has every backup of substance from last season back, including Dre’lyn Washington. 

Notably, the team is hopeful that Chandler Fields or Ben Woolridge can stay healthy and have some continuity behind an OL that was elite last season and returns four starters back. 

I’m confident the offense can hold up this season, but can the defense take a step forward? The unit returns eight starters from a unit that was middling. The unit was good at limiting chunk plays, but teams were able to move the ball on the Ragin’ Cajun defense. The unit was 40th in yards per play, but bottom 20 in the country in success rate. 

With some returning production on defense, I’ll bank on a step forward for a team that has an advantageous schedule. 

The team has two clear wins in the nonconference slate as well as another coin toss after a bye against Tulane. While the team will be a clear underdog at Wake Forest, I wouldn’t write that off as an automatic loss. 

Yes, the team plays the top two teams in Appalachian State and Texas State in conference play, the team will be favored or an underdog of less than a touchdown in every other conference game (six). If the team can get some fortuitous bounces, the Ragin’ Cajun should be in the mix for a Sun Belt title and clear this win total. 

Old Dominion Under 4.5 Wins (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Monarchs had a strong 2023 regular season that resulted in a bowl game, a magical run when you look at the details. 

ODU played in 10 (!) one-score games last season, including winning at the horn in its final game of the season that got the team to bowl eligibility. All of it came to a head in its bowl game, blowing a 28-point in the Famous Toastery Bowl. 

Winning one-score games masks a lot of issues for a team. Some of it is luck, and sometimes that dries up year over year resulting in a big drop-off. 

The Monarchs had a stout defense that ranked 29th in EPA/Play despite totaling just 15 sacks in the regular season. I believe teams will be able to find answers against the Old Dominion defense despite the return of 2022 All-American Jason Henderson from injury, especially when the offense is incredibly limited, 107th in EPA/Play. 

The team is outside the top 100 in returning production and will be favored in at most two games this season. The Monarchs play nine teams that have a win total above 5.5 this season, and I believe we see the team come back to Earth in the win-and-loss column.

Dark Horse to Watch in Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (+2500, DK)

The top of the Sun Belt is fairly loaded, so finding a dark horse may be a fool’s errand, but I’ll mention Georgia Southern as an intriguing team. 

Maybe this team doesn’t out-duel the likes of Appalachian State, Texas State, James Madison, and Louisiana, but the Eagles have some interesting upside with an offense that has played at a high level at times under Clay Helton. 

The Eagles run a fast-paced offense under the former Trojans head coach but were held back at times under Davis Brin, who led the country in interceptions. The team averaged north of 30 points per game, and was full of explosive plays, but was below the national average in EPA/Play due to its turnover issues. 

Despite playing at a top 10 pace, the Georgia Southern defense held up fine, ranking top 20 in tackles for loss and being aggressive at forcing turnovers, and top 20 in TO gained. However, the team was vulnerable against the run, leading to a defense that ranked outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. However, the team returns eight starters from the defense, including pass rushers Isaac Walker and Justin Rhoades. 

The defense will always be below average due to the pace of the offense, but that's what makes this team a dark horse: we don’t know who is playing quarterback for the Eagles. Will it be Indiana transfer Dexter Williams? What about last year’s backups JC French or David Dallas? 

The team returns leading rusher Jalen White and last year’s No. 2 receiver Derwin Burgess, who had over 800 yards receiving, as well as three starters from a sturdy offensive line. 

The team benefits from a favorable Sun Belt schedule, getting James Madison and Appalachian State at home as well as the likes of Georgia State and Old Dominion on the schedule – albeit on the road. 

The Sun Belt East could be decided in Statesboro for a team that has tantalizing upside, even if it doesn't come to fruition. 

Sun Belt Championship Prediction and Pick: Texas State (+400, DK)

In the new College Football Playoff format, one Group of Five team gets an automatic bid. For my money, that team will be Texas State (+1500 to make CFP at DraftKings Sportsbook). 

GJ Kinne came to San Marcos last season and instantly legitimized this offense with a transfer-laden roster.

The team went 8-5 behind an incredible offense and a nasty defensive line that overwhelmed opposing offense lines, including Baylor in Week 1. 

This season, nine starters return on both sides of the ball, and one new starter is reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud from James Madison. McCloud is a dual-threat quarterback who has had success in this league already and is now in a more potent offense around the likes of Second Team All-American Ismail Mahdi at running back as well as an offensive line littered with Power Four transfers. 

The defense is boom or bust, fresh off a season in which the unit ranked second in the country in tackles for loss, but also 128th in explosive run defense and 110th in explosive pass defense. Maybe that trips them up in a game or two, but I believe the talent on the Bobcats is too much to ignore in this league that should be better in year two of this system. 

The Bobcats don’t play Appalachian State this season and will play Louisiana at home. The team will face talented teams like UTSA and Arizona State, but both travel to San Marcos in coin-flip matchups. 

There is enough competition for this team that if it all clicks, it not only can put up a gaudy win-loss record but have a formidable case to make the CFP. I like them to come out of the West division and ultimately beat either Appalachian State or James Madison in the title game, one that can determine a postseason berth. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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