Sun vs. Dream WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Sunday, Aug. 18

Look to the total for the best bet in Sunday's afternoon matchup between the Connecticut Sun and Atlanta Dream.

Connecticut Sun guard DiJonai Carrington. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Connecticut Sun and Atlanta Dream got off to strong starts in their return from the Olympic break, winning their first game back. 

Connecticut played with DiJonai Carrington (personal) but dominated the Dallas Wings in Dallas to move to 19-6 on the season. To top it off, Carrington should be back on Sunday after she was removed from the injury report.

DiJonai Carrington (personal) not on injury report for Sunday.

— Underdog WNBA (@Underdog__WNBA) August 17, 2024

As for Atlanta, it received a game-winning bucket from Tina Charles in the closing seconds to take down the Seattle Storm as a seven-point home underdog. Now, the Dream find themselves in a similar spot on Sunday against the league’s No. 2 team. 

Who should we bet on?

Let’s take a look at the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for this matinee matchup. 

Sun vs. Dream Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Sun -7.5 (-108)
• Dream +7.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Sun: -375
• Dream: +295

Total

• 155 (Over -108/Under -112)

Sun vs. Dream How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 18
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gateway Center 
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN3
• Sun record: 19-6
• Dream record: 8-17

Sun vs. Dream Injury Reports

Connecticut Sun Injury Report

• Tiffany Mitchell – out

Atlanta Dream Injury Report

• Aerial Powers – out

Sun vs. Dream Key Players to Watch

Connecticut Sun

Marina Mabrey: Mabrey got the start for DiJonai Carrington (personal) in her first game with the Sun and delivered in a big way, scoring 17 points on 7-of-12 shooting to go with four rebounds, three assists and two steals. Carrington is off the injury report on Sunday, so it’ll be interesting to see who starts in this matchup. 

Atlanta Dream 

Rhyne Howard: Rhyne Howard returned from the Olympic break with a bang, scoring 30 points on 10-fo-16 shooting (5-for-9 from 3) to lead the Dream to an upset win over the Seattle Storm. After injuries slowed her in the first half, Howard could be poised for a major finish to the 2024 regular season. 

Sun vs. Dream Prediction and Pick

Rather than taking a side in this one, I’m going to look to the total, as this sets up as a perfect UNDER game with how these teams have played in 2024.

For starters, the Sun and Dream have combined for 119 points (June 2), 152 points (June 28) and 147 points (July 7) in their three previous meetings this season. 

While both teams are pretty much healthy heading into this game, I’m still not sold on this being a high-scoring affair.

Atlanta ranks dead last in the WNBA in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage, and – unlike last season – it doesn’t play at a fast pace. The Dream are 10th in pace, with only the Minnesota Lynx and the Sun ranking behind them.

Connecticut is dead last in the W in pace, preferring to slow games down and win at the defensive end. The Sun have the No. 3 defensive rating in the W, and are 12-13 on UNDERs this season (Atlanta is 13-12). 

Given the history between these teams, 155 points is a few too many for my liking this afternoon. 

Pick: UNDER 155 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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