Sun vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Semifinals Game 5 (Who Will Cover?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx.

Connecticut Sun guard Tyasha Harris. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

A trip to the WNBA Finals is on the line on Tuesday night, as the Minnesota Lynx host the Connecticut Sun in a winner-take-all Game 5. 

After winning Game 1, the Sun dropped back-to-back games to fall behind 2-1 in this series, but they took care of business at home on Sunday, erasing a halftime deficit to win by 10 points at Mohegan Sun Arena. 

These are the two best defensive teams in the WNBA, and they’ve played some close games so far in this series. Still, oddsmakers are leaning towards the home team.

The Lynx went an impressive 16-4 straight up at home in the regular season, and they did win Game 2 at home by seven points after blowing a lead in the fourth quarter in Game 1. 

The biggest change from the first three games of this series is that Stephanie White went back to guard Ty Harris – who has been dealing with an ankle injury and playing limited minutes – in Game 4. 

Harris responded with 20 points and four made 3-pointers, giving the Sun a much-needed scoring boost that they lacked in Games 2 and 3. 

Will there be any big adjustments that swing Game 5?

Let’s break down this game, the latest odds and my prediction for who will get to face the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals.  

Sun vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Sun +3.5 (-105)
• Lynx -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Sun: +140
• Lynx: -166

Total

• 152 (OVer -108/Under -112)

Sun vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 8
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Series: Tied 2-2

Sun vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

• Tiffany Mitchell – out

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Sun vs. Lynx Key Players to Watch

Connecticut Sun

Ty Harris: An ankle injury has kept guard Ty Harris limited so far this postseason, but she returned in a big way in a start in Game 4. Harris scored 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting, going +10 when she was on the floor to help lead the Sun to a win. The move to put Harris in the starting lineup shifted Marin Mabrey (10 points) to the bench, giving the Sun a little more depth in their rotation. Can Harris put together another big game on Tuesday night? 

Minnesota Lynx

Bridget Carleton: Prior to Game 4, Carleton was shooting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc in five playoff games, but the Lynx sharpshooter struggled on Sunday, going just 2-for-11 from beyond the arc. With Napheesa Collier garnering a ton of attention on offense, the Lynx need Carleton, Kayla McBride and others to knock down open looks to extend the Sun defense. 

Sun vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

There aren’t many betting trends that support the Sun in this game. 

They’re just 3-7 against the spread as an underdog this season and the Lynx are elite at home (16-4 straight up in the regular season, 13-11 against the spread overall). 

However, I am throwing a lot of that out in a winner-take-all scenario. 

White’s adjustment to go back to Harris and bring Marina Mabrey off the bench gave the Sun some much-needed depth on Sunday, and it gave Mabrey some more legs after she struggled mightily shooting the ball in Game 3. 

Minnesota, on the other hand, didn’t get much from anyone not named Napheesa Collier (29 points) or Natisha Heidman (16 points) in Game 4. 

The 3-ball has been the great equalizer for the Lynx all season long (they shot a league-best 38.0 percent in the regular season), but the Sun answered the bell in Game 4, shooting over 53 percent from downtown. 

With the two best defensive teams in the WNBA facing off in a must-win matchup, I expect this game to slow down in the fourth quarter with some intense half-court possessions. 

Even though the Lynx may end up winning this one, I can’t help but take the points with the Sun sitting as 3.5-point underdogs. I do think this game remains within a possession after four straight games of back-and-forth second halves. 

Pick: Sun +3.5 (-105)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.