Sun vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Semifinals Game 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Game 1 between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA semifinals.

Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas. / Mark Smith-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun both rolled through the first round of the playoffs, although there were some nervous moments for the Sun in Game 2 against the Indiana Fever before they ultimately closed out the series.

Now, these teams meet in the semifinals, even though oddsmakers have them behind the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces (the other semifinal) to win it all this season.

These two teams are both elite on defense (No. 1 and No. 2 in the league) which should make for an intriguing series. 

Can the Sun get started on the right foot as road underdogs in Game 1?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Sunday night’s matchup. 

Sun vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Sun +4 (-102)
• Lynx -4 (-118)

Moneyline

• Sun: +150
• Lynx: -180

Total

• 155 (Over -105/Under -115)

Sun vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 29
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Sun vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

• Tiffany Mitchell – out
• Ty Harris – questionable

Lynx Injury Report

• Cecilia Zandalasini – day-to-day

Sun vs. Lynx Key Players to Watch

Connecticut Sun

Marina Mabrey: The X-Factor for the Sun, Mabrey may be forced into the starting lineup again on Sunday if Harris (questionable) can’t go. In the first round against the Indiana Fever, Mabrey had 27 and 17 points while shooting 8-for-22 from beyond the arc. She nearly played the whole game (39:10) in Game 2 against Indiana with Harris out. 

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: The best player in the postseason so far has been Collier, who dropped 38 and 42 points in her two games against the Phoenix Mercury. An MVP candidate this season, Collier had 25 points against the Sun in the last meeting between these teams and 31 in an overtime win earlier in 2024. 

Sun vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

We could have a rock fight on our hands at Target Center on Sunday night.

The Sun (No. 1 in defensive rating, dead last in pace) take on the Lynx (No. 2 in defensive rating, No. 10 in pace) in a matchup that has been an under bettors dream this season.

In three meetings in the regular season, the Sun and Lynx combined for 165 points (in an overtime game), 151 and 154 points. 

Now, the total for this game is set at 155, a sign that oddsmakers expect something similar to the final two meetings between these squads.

Minnesota played a high-scoring first-round series against the weak Phoenix Mercury defense, but I expect the Sun to slow this game down and try to limit Collier, who is averaging 40 points per game across two playoff appearances this season.

The Sun are one of the best UNDER teams in the W, 23-19 this season, and the Lynx aren’t far off (22-20-1) from their mark.

If both of these teams play to their strengths – defense and deliberate offense – I’d expect this game to fall short of 155 points.

Pick: UNDER 155 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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