Sun vs. Mercury WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, July 1 (Mercury Live Dog?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Phoenix Mercury-Connecticut Sun matchup on Monday.

Phoenix Mercury guards Kahleah Copper (2) and Diana Taurasi (3) and center Brittney Griner. / Michael Chow / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Phoenix Mercury have a quick turnaround on Monday night, as they’ll host the Connecticut Sun – the No. 2 team in the WNBA – on the second night of a back-to-back.

Phoenix blew a lead against the Indiana Fever on Sunday afternoon, losing by six points to fall to 7-3 straight up at home this season. 

The Sun have not been playing their best basketball of the season, losing four of their last 10 games after starting the season with a 9-0 record. Can they cover the spread as short favorites on the road on Monday?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players and my best bet: 

Sun vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Sun -3 (-112)
• Mercury +3 (-108)

Moneyline

• Sun: -155
• Mercury: +130

Total

• 157.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Sun vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 1
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Footprint Center
• How to watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Sun record: 14-4
• Mercury record: 9-9

Sun vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

• Moriah Jefferson – out

Mercury Injury Report

• Charisma Osborne – day-to-day

Sun vs. Mercury Key Players to Watch

Connecticut Sun

DiJonai Carrington: Carrington has stepped into a bigger role for the Sun this season, and is thriving, averaging 13.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game while shooting 41.1 percent from the field. CT’s best perimeter defender should have her hands fall against the talented guards in Phoenix. 

Phoenix Mercury

Brittney Griner: An All-Star center, Griner had a big game on Sunday in a loss to the Fever, putting up 24 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field. Griner is now up to 19.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game since returning from a toe injury. 

Sun vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

The Sun are one of the best teams in the W this season, but they haven’t been great against the spread (7-10), and I’m worried about them against one of the best home teams in the league.

Yes, Phoenix is coming off a bad loss, but it’s still one of the better home teams in the league, and it comes into this matchup with an 8-4 ATS record as an underdog. 

Over the last five games, Phoenix actually outranks the Sun in net rating, as Connecticut is just -3.3 over that stretch. 

Since Griner returned, the Mercury are 5-3 straight up, and I think she provides a matchup issue for the Sun, who lack a ton of strength after Alyssa Thomas in the frontcourt. 

I’ll take a chance on the Mercury as dogs on Monday.

Pick: Mercury +3 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.