Team USA Massively Favored to Win 5x5 Basketball Gold Medal Ahead of Semifinals

Can Team USA win a fifth consecutive gold medal in men's basketball?

United States guard LeBron James (6) and small forward Jayson Tatum. / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

We're getting closer and closer to a gold medal being awarded in men's basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics, and the United States remains a massive favorite to get the job done with its superteam featuring LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and others.

There is still a tough road ahead for the Americans, as they'll face NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and Serbia for the second time this Olympics and the third time this summer in the semifinals on Thursday.

Serbia lost to Team USA by 26 in pool play, but it was even when Jokic was on the floor (31 minutes) and outscored 29-3 when the star center was on the bench. If Jokic's minutes increase in an elimination game, can Team USA hold off Serbia?

Oddsmakers sure seem to think so, setting Team USA as a -700 favorite to win the gold medal, but a tough matchup likely awaits in the final as well.

Germany and France face off in the other semifinal in men's basketball, and the Germans have had some success against Team USA internationally in recent years. Not only did Germany win the 2023 FIBA World Cup, knocking Team USA out in the semis, but it kept things close in an exhibition earlier this summer.

Loaded with NBA talent in Franz Wagner, Dennis Schroder, Daniel Theis, Moe Wagner and others, Germany has a ton of continuity on its roster from previous international competition. If it doesn't advance to the final, France would get a chance to compete for the gold at home.

Victor Wembanyama is one of the best players in the Olympics, and France stunned Canada in the quarterfinals on Tuesday to advance. So, Team USA has far from a cakewalk to the gold this summer.

Olympic Men's Basketball Gold Medal Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Team USA: -700
• Germany: +800
• Serbia: +2000
• France: +2200

Based on these odds, Team USA has an implied probability of 87.50 percent to win the gold medal, while Germany has just an 11.11 percent chance -- the second-best odds -- to win the gold.

Even though there are tough matchups still on the docket fro James, Durant and company, Team USA should be favored by this much.

Loaded with All-Star and All-NBA talent, the Americans have rolled in Paris, winning every game by at least 17 points, including a 35-point win in the quarterfinals over Brazil -- the American's largest margin of victory in the Olympics.

Serbia is a tricky matchup since it has already seen Team USA twice this summer, but the Americans have to take advantage when Jokic is off the floor. The Serbians have more NBA talent (Nikola Jovic, Vasilije Micić, Bogdan Bogdanovic), but it isn't nearly in the same ballpark as Team USA.

I'd expect the odds for Team USA to win it all to skyrocket if it advances to the gold medal game. The Americans opened the Olympics at -500 to win the gold medal and have already seen that number move in a big way to -700 with just two more wins to go.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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