Tennessee vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Reed Wallach | Oct 1, 2024

Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava (8) drops back to pass during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Tennessee Volunteers at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee comes out of a bye week to resume SEC play at Arkansas, who is searching for a signature win after a handful of squandered chances. 

The Vols appear to be firmly in the mix for the College Football Playoff and beyond with quarterback Nico Iamleava leading the charge on offense and an elite defense that will look to contain a Razorbacks offense that has slowed down during SEC play. 

How does the current form of Arkansas impact our betting handicap? Here’s how I’m playing it.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Tennessee: -13.5 (-110)
• Arkansas: +13.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Tennessee: -550
• Arkansas: +425

Total: 60.5  (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee vs. Arkansas How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 5
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Tennessee Record: 4-0
• Arkansas Record: 3-2

Tennessee vs. Arkansas Key Players to Watch

Tennessee

Nico Iamaleava: The sophomore has been on the fringes of the Heisman Trophy discussion, completing 69% of his passes with eight total touchdowns and two interceptions. The Vols passed a road test already against Oklahoma, but can Arkansas’ offense force Iamaleava to pass the ball more than his season high of 28 this season? 

Arkansas

Taylen Green: Green has been up-and-down this season with Arkansas, taking 12 sacks and completing only 54% of his passes, but has compiled more than 1,500 total yards with nine touchdowns. The Razorbacks offense has been able to hit explosives, but Green’s suspect decision making has led to a ton of issues in terms of winning games. 

Tennessee vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

The Razorbacks get a ton of buzz for its offense with Bobby Petrino calling the plays and a dynamic quarterback like Taylen Green, but its the defense that has impressed me thus far. 

The Hogs defense ranks 14th in EPA/Rush and is top half of the country in explosive play rate allowed. Overall, the unit is 28th in EPA/Play despite playing a fairly sturdy strength of schedule to start the season. 

Meanwhile, the offense is struggling to put points on the board. Some of it is Green’s discipline with the ball, making eight big time throws to eight turnover worthy plays per Pro Football Focus, and some of it is the offensive line. The Hogs offense has allowed 33 tackles for loss this season, 110th in the country. 

Against a Vols defense that will be fresh off the BYE week and is feasting on suspect offensive lines, tallying 31 tackles for loss in four games and ranking third in EPA/Play, I believe the Hogs may struggle. 

This is a high total, and I do believe that Tennessee has its eyes on more high leverage games as SEC play ramps up, and this game is primed to stay under the total. Yes, the pace will be fast, but Tennessee is far improved on defense and its offense may take its foot off the gas if its game at Oklahoma was any indication. 

I like the Vols to win easily, but for it to be a lower scoring game than expected. 

PICK: UNDER 60.5 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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