Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for SEC Tournament Final

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Tennessee-Florida matchup in the SEC Tournament Final.

Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The SEC Tournament comes to a close on Sunday afternoon, and two teams in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament are facing off for the third time this season.

Tennessee, which knocked off No. 1 Auburn on Saturday, takes on the Florida Gators, who are firmly in the mix for a No. 1 seed and led by veteran guards Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard.

These teams traded double-digit wins in the regular season, but who will take the SEC Tournament Final and earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament?

Here’s a look at the odds, some players to watch in the prop market and my best bet for this matchup. 

Tennessee vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Tennessee +5.5 (-108)
• Florida -5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Tennessee: +190
• Florida: -230

Total

• 144.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Tennessee vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 16
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Tennessee record: 27-6
• Florida record: 29-4

Tennessee vs. Florida Best College Basketball Prop Bets

Tennessee

• Chaz Lanier UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-160)

Lanier has shockingly cleared this line twice against the Gators despite averaging just 3.8 boards per game. However, he’s only cleared 4.5 rebounds in nine of his 33 appearances this season, making him an UNDER target for me against a Florida team that is third in the country in rebounds per game. 

Florida

• Walter Clayton Jr. OVER 16.5 Points (+100)

Tennessee has done a good job of keeping Clayton – one of the best guards in the country – in check this season. He has just seven and 10 points in the two meetings between these teams, but since his last clash with Tennessee, he’s scored 17 or more points in eight of 11 games.

Overall, Clayton is averaging 17.4 points per game while shooting 44.7 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. 

Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in our Best College Basketball Picks and Predictions column why the UNDER in this game is intriguing: 

These teams have played some weird matchups this season, as Tennessee lost to the Gators by 30 in early January before returning the favor with a 20-point win at home on Feb. 1. 

The one constant? Both of these games were extremely low-scoring for a Florida matchup.

In their first meeting, these teams combined for 116 points, and they followed that up with just 108 points in the second matchup of the season. One big reason why?

The Volunteers play at a snail’s pace, ranking 348th in the country in adjusted tempo. That’s helped Tennessee stay in games against some of the elite teams in the SEC, as it also has the No. 3 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom.

Now, Florida has the No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency, but it is also a solid defensive team, ranking seventh in that category in the 2024-25 season. 

It’s hard to take an UNDER on a Gators team that is averaging 85.4 points per game – No. 3 in the country – but this matchup has not led to high-scoring matchups this season.

With this total the way up at 144.5 – more than 28 points higher than the highest-scoring matchup between these teams – I am going to take the UNDER on Sunday. 

Pick: UNDER 144.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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