Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 12

Reed Wallach | Nov 12, 2024

Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson (6) runs with the ball during an NCAA college football game between Tennessee and Mississippi State at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. / Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The biggest game on the Week 12 card goes down on Saturday night in Athens, Georgia.

The Georgia Bulldogs, the National Championship favorites for much of this season, must win at home on Saturday to ensure it stays in the College Football Playoff discussion. The team will face an SEC contender in Tennessee, who is looking to gain the inside track on the SEC title game with a stunning upset on Saturday.

The Vols, expected to be a high-powered offense all season, have been paced by an elite defensive line that has given the opposition fits all season. With injury questions looming, can the Tennessee defense travel and keep up with Georgia?

Here’s our betting preview.

Tennessee vs. Georgia Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Tennessee: +9.5 (-114)
Georgia: -9.5 (-106)

Moneyline

Tennessee: +260
Georgia: -330

Total: 48.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee vs. Georgia How to Watch

Date: Saturday, November 16th
Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
Venue: Sanford Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Tennessee Record: 8-1
Georgia Record: 7-2

Tennessee vs. Georgia Key Players to Watch

Tennessee

Nico Iamaleava: The quarterback who had been making strides in SEC play exited in the first half against Mississippi State last week. While the Vols went on to win, and Josh Heupel continues to voice optimism that Iamaleava will be good to go for Saturday, it’s fair to question if he will be 100%. On the season, the Tennessee passing game hasn’t been up to expectations, lacking explosiveness, but the offense overall has been more than capable top 50 in EPA/Play. However, traveling to Athens is the team’s toughest test of the season, and if all parts aren’t at full speed, this can be a struggle.

Tennessee HC Josh Heupel talks Nico Iamaleava on Monday afternoon:

Take a look at what he said here ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/4cuq856lKH
— Rocky Top Insider (@rockytopinsider) November 11, 2024

Georgia

Carson Beck: Beck’s struggles continued as SEC play wares on, passing for only 186 yards while taking five sacks last week against Ole Miss. It won’t get easier against an elite Tennessee pass rush, but back at home, Beck will look to get going through the air. We haven’t seen a clean game from Beck since the beginning of October, he hasn’t had a big-time throw since the Mississippi State game, per Pro Football Focus.

Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

The uncertainty around Iamaleava makes it a tough game to call in certainty as we won’t get any clear updates until the Wednesday injury report comes out from the SEC. Meanwhile, the team’s star running back, Dylan Sampson, also left with an injury in the Vols win against Mississippi State but returned to finish the game.

With Tennessee’s offense far from 100%, it will be even more difficult for Josh Heupel’s group to perform against a Georgia defense that has given his unique offense fits since he arrived in Knoxville. In three games against Georgia, Heupel’s Tennessee teams have scored 17, 13 and 10, respectively.

On the road, with an injured quarterback and lack of an explosive passing game, this may be a chore for the Vols offense.

Meanwhile, this Georgia offense continues to be shaky. Beck is making questionable decisions at all times, and the Bulldogs offense has made it a point to try and get the ground game going in hopes of avoiding turnover-worthy plays from the quarterback.

The Bulldogs' lack of dynamic talent at the skill positions is apparent, and Beck is regressing heavily. Under pressure this season, Beck is completing 35% of his passes with three big-time throws to 10 turnover-worthy plays. He’ll be facing a Tennessee pass rush that is 15th in pass rush grading, per Pro Football Focus.

With injuries and a lack of playmaking from both passing games, each team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate, I landed on the under in this one.

This game can be a slog, as has been most of these two teams' games for much of the season, and I think this one finishes in a race to the low 20s.

PICK: UNDER 48.5